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Guido's Weather and Climate Corner · Aug 11, 2026

The latest weather forecast for the Total Eclipse

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Guido Cioni · Guido's Weather and Climate Corner

I was not aware that there is a “new” category of chasers: after the famous storm-chasers we know have the eclipse-chasers, people that do everything to find the best spot to observe the eclipse. So, for those people exactly, I made this weather briefing for tomorrow’s Eclipse seeing.

We start from an animation of the cloud cover predicted by ICON over the Eclipse path.

As we can see, most of the path over the Atlantic will be covered by clouds. Only a small portion of Greenland seems to be cloud free. Over Spain the situation seems to be more favorable, however there are few uncertainties related to some thunderstorms forming in the afternoon.

Here is a map that does NOT represent cloud cover directly, but rather the probability (based on ensemble models) of having clear skies (less than 40% cloud cover, which is already pretty generous).

As we can see, there are a few spots in Spain where the probability of having clear skies at this time is quite low (less than 30%). The area with clear skies in the South-West does not unfortunately coincide with the totality path.

Here are the complete galleries with ICON-EU, ICON and ICON-EU-EPS.

ICON-EU (Deterministic) Cloud Cover Forecast over Spain
ICON (Global, Deterministic) Cloud Cover Forecast over the North Atlantic and West Europe
ICON-EU-EPS (Ensemble) forecast of clear sky (with different thresholds) for the Eclipse arrival over Spain

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