Hello, traders!
Sep hike expectations moved lower last week, but Dec is still above 60%. We’ve got a relatively quiet week and there’s not much that can move those numbers substantially.
FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday is the only major event for Gold since there’s a chance it can:
1/ offer some clues for future policy
2/ show how strong was the support for the three hawkish dissenters.
Take the minutes with a grain of salt because this is July data and the Fed at the time had neither cooler inflation prints nor current weak retail data to lean on.
Wed Aug 19: UK inflation data can move the dollar, but it’s generally not strong enough to create a convincing setup for Gold. FOMC minutes later will move the market more.
Thu Aug 20: Philly prices paid and jobless claims drop. These can support hike expectations but neither is strong enough to meaningfully move them lower.
Fri Aug 21: global PMIs will move FX markets and increase volatility. Useful for reading global growth, but I’m not entering a Gold trade based on these alone.
Every week, I condense this full report and scenarios into an interactive positioning tool. Now you can:
open the tool → tap the event → choose what number just printed → get the summary, positioning, and relevant warning in seconds.
I still advice reading the full report before data to understand the macro context and how the positioning changes with each scenario.
I’ll send XAUUSD level update on Wednesday pre-Fed - so keep an eye on Telegram.
🔴 SS1 triggered on Monday with TP1 hit and trade now closed.
🔴 SS2 technically triggered tonight. I personally do not trade Asia, but if you do, you’ve hit TP1 with stop at breakeven. This setup to go live again after hawkish reaction to Fed minutes.
🟢 LS1 - pre-Fed setup that can trigger today/tomorrow if the current range breaks lower. But double check with yields and DXY - these are currently against a high-convincing Gold long.
🟢 LS2 - only goes live if the current range breaks down decisively. This setup also needs a proper reclaim.
🟢 SW1 - only after Fed dovish minutes and ideally with good news on US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
Or lessen my conviction:
US02Y down & DXY flat/up: partial confirmation so reduce size or stay out of trading
US02Y down & BRENT up: lower yields are positive for Gold but higher oil add future inflation pressure. Avoid to chase longs.
December hike expectations don’t move, even on softer data
US02Y flat & XAUUSD is up/down: Expiry flows and liquidity can move Gold, but if yields don’t move the other way, the Gold reaction is short-lived.
Have your XAUUSD chart open on short-term and mid-term timeframes by default.
Dec hike expectation on FedWatch. These are currently ~68%. Even a dip to 55-60% would be enough to help Gold break the range higher.
US02Y - see the first reaction to the Fed minutes here. Yields are currently rising. A break of 4.207-4.209 and higher will turn macro against Gold.
DXY - second reaction to Fed minutes. Also watch to track FX market reaction during UK and EU prints. E.g., hot UK inflation can lift the pounds and pressure dollar, giving Gold a small tailwind into the Fed minutes.
Brent - escalation between US and Iran will lift oil, hike expectations, and are Gold-negative.
Every week, I read through hundreds of news, data releases, and positioning reports to map out how each economic event will move the Gold market. I turn that work into a weekly Market Movers plan that I use myself.
For every major event, I lay out possible scenarios and how each would adjust my Gold positioning and trades. So when the data comes out, it’s easy to sift through chaos and looks for numbers that matter.
My premium subscribers get access to this plan every week along with my entire professional toolkit:
My weekly analysis and trade ideas - exact levels and setups I’m watching for the week ahead
The Gold Spotter indicator - my proprietary warning system that shows major market trend shifts before everyone else.
Proprietary SAGE indicator - a rule-based system designed to put you in high probability buy setups and keep you away from trashy ones.
Mid-week level updates on Telegram - Levels shift and when they do, I send you an update.
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