The most useful rule for this week - don’t make high-conviction trading decisions based on a single economic print, even if it’s as important as CPI or PPI. One number in isolation can easily mislead so we need to see a consistent pattern across data.
Here’s what’s on the calendar this week:
Tue, Aug 10: RBA interest rate decision.
We read it for context on global interest rates, not for trading directly.
Wed, Aug 11: CPI
First read on July inflation, will shape the week’s direction.
Thu, Aug 12: PPI + Unemployment claims + Fed comments
We want to see PPI move the market the same way CPI did on Wednesday. If it does, adding to the CPI position makes sense. If two prints disagree, we get a few dramatic candles and chop conditions.
Fri, Aug 13: Retail sales + UoM
I have planned to close all my swing positions by Friday because inflation expectations can mess up winning setups. The Fed hawks never built their case on monthly inflation. They built it on expectations, and a reading of 4.4% or higher supports a September hike no matter what the two days before showed.
US-Iran situation, all week: Escalation will boost oil and with that, inflation expectations. I’m so far skeptical of news on Oman deal since it doesn’t reopen the Strait - more on this below.
Structural core holders, watch the two levels (add level + break level) from Sunday Gold Insider report. And watch where Friday’s weekly candle closes.
Every week, I condense this full report and scenarios into an interactive positioning tool. Now you can:
open the tool → tap the event → choose what number just printed → get the summary, positioning, and relevant warning in seconds.
I still advice reading the full report before data to understand the macro context and how the positioning changes with each scenario.
I’ve planned two swing setups this week.
SW2 is the breakout long (above the price now). It needs a soft CPI, ideally with a soft PPI behind it on Thursday.
SW1 is the support long (below the price), and it requires a hot CPI, or hard US-Iran escalation followed by a big jump in oil.
Four scalp ideas include:
LS1 and SS1 are mutually exclusive. Enter only one per session.
SS2 only exists on breakdown, after Orange Alert is live.
LS2 needs a full-on hawkish week. It will probably take both hot inflation and US-Iran escalation to get Gold there. I don’t think we get such violent drop this week, but I keep it on my list anyway.
The charts I have open this week:
US02Y (15m) shows a real-time read on expectations for the September Fed decision and what traders actually concluded from the data. Sometimes that’s more useful than the economic print itself.
DXY (15m) started the week near a two-month low ~99.6. That gives the dollar plenty of room to bounce if the data comes in hawkish. The direction needs to confirm US02Y.
September hike odds are 43.9% as of Mon. I’m watching this number before each major release + 30 min after. The change in hike odds tells us how the market reacts to economic releases.
Brent crude. Rising oil is Gold-negative. Falling oil is neutral and doesn’t give the same boost in reverse because oil price has already fallen enough that another drop has less information value.
❌ Four combinations that keep me out of trades or lessen my conviction:
2-year ↓ + DXY flat or ↑ → Partial confirmation, so I reduce conviction or stay out.
2-year ↓ + Brent ↑ → Falling yields are Gold-positive but when they get offset by higher oil, this can make the move much less durable. I don’t chase longs.
Soft data soft + hike odds barely move → I care more about the hike odds than what data showed.
Gold moves + 2-year doesn’t → Gold can move from expiry flows, thin liquidity. If yields don’t confirm, there’s no reason to chase Gold.
Every week, I read through hundreds of news, data releases, and positioning reports to map out how each economic event will move the Gold market. I turn that work into a weekly Market Movers plan that I use myself.
For every major event, I lay out possible scenarios and how each would adjust my Gold positioning and trades. So when the data comes out, it’s easy to sift through chaos and looks for numbers that matter.
My premium subscribers get access to this plan every week along with my entire professional toolkit:
My weekly analysis and trade ideas - exact levels and setups I’m watching for the week ahead
The Gold Spotter indicator - my proprietary warning system that shows major market trend shifts before everyone else.
Proprietary SAGE indicator - a rule-based system designed to put you in high probability buy setups and keep you away from trashy ones.
Mid-week level updates on Telegram - Levels shift and when they do, I send you an update.
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