Gold Pre-CPI update [Aug 12]

Short-term Gold trend is bullish and the structure is strong.

On the daily, Gold reclaimed all 4 major MA’s and pushed through the upper boundary of the downward channel for the first time in weeks. The moving averages haven’t caught up yet, but if the price keeps pushing higher, I expect this to happen until the end of the week.

My Gold Spotter is also showing support - both red and green lines have curled upward this week.

While technical picture is solid, Gold now is threatened by macro:

• The dollar stopped falling. It bottomed ~99.4 and since then moved higher to ~99.87.

• Brent has also moved ~10% higher in the last 7 days.

• Fed Collins commented that she would support a Sep hike if inflation stays high. Fed Goolsbee also showed more concern for inflation than the weak labor market.

CPI today covers July when oil was partially falling. This can make the number look better than it actually is while telling us very little about inflation in August.

I am still careful with tactical swing, keeping my size small and closing all tactical positions before the weekend.

This week’s price action created two new resistance levels, so our Sunday breakout trigger at 4404 is now obsolete.

Note that 4404 was broken on 4h, but it happened during Asian session so it was invalid as per our rules.

Every week, I read through hundreds of news, data releases, and positioning reports to map out how each economic event will move the Gold market. I turn that work into a weekly Market Movers plan that I use myself.

For every major event, I lay out possible scenarios and how each would adjust my Gold positioning and trades. So when the data comes out, it’s easy to sift through chaos and looks for numbers that matter.

My premium subscribers get access to this plan every week along with my entire professional toolkit:

1. My weekly analysis and trade ideas - exact levels and setups I’m watching for the week ahead

2. The Gold Spotter indicator - my proprietary warning system that shows major market trend shifts before everyone else.

3. Proprietary SAGE indicator - a rule-based system designed to put you in high probability buy setups and keep you away from trashy ones.

4. Mid-week level updates on Telegram - Levels shift and when they do, I send you an update.