The Impact of Drones: Changing the Rules of War

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, alongside the proliferation of drone technology, has irrevocably changed the rules and the costs of warfare globally. Take Ukraine’s Operation Spider Web, for instance: its estimated cost of maybe $100,000 stands as a mere fraction of the $7 billion in damages inflicted on Russia’s strategic bomber capability, much of which remains irreplaceable. An impressive return on investment, by any business metric.

Yet, this remarkable ROI is no anomaly; it is being repeated throughout the battlespace. Russia’s $20,000-50,000 Shahed drones, for example, at times overwhelm Ukrainian defences, inflicting significant damage on both military and civilian targets.

In this oped, we’ll explore the evolution of drone warfare for both Ukraine and Russia and examine the profound impact these unmanned systems have had on the conflict thus far.

Since February 2022, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine has dramatically accelerated drone warfare for both nations. What once took years now unfolds in weeks, as Ukraine and Russia rapidly adapt and mirror each other's technological advancements, heavily leveraging commercial innovation. This intense, reciprocal evolution places both at the forefront of tactical and operational drone application globally.

"Ukraine has quickly realised the potential of commercial technology and civil creativity let's say and I think the government took a very smart position in this situation to stop trying to lead this innovation race into switching to being an enabler.” - Katarina Bondar, Director of the Wadwani AI Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

Ukraine's drone evolution began with the widespread adoption of commercial drones (e.g. DJI Mavic’s) for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR). Many existing commercial ISR options, like the Northrop Grumman Global Hawk, proved too expensive, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. Frontline troops required low-cost, almost disposable drones, easily deployed to provide immediate feedback to operators and commanders.

In response to battlefield needs, Ukraine swiftly scaled up inexpensive First-Person View (FPV) drones. These versatile platforms quickly supported bombing, ISR, and signal relay missions. Ukrainian forces also integrated AI for autonomous navigation, crucial for overcoming jamming, and developed fibre optic drones for secure communication up to 15km.

Agricultural drones transformed into effective "Babayaga" bombers, while long-range fixed-wing drones, like Lut and Ber, carried out deep strikes into Russian territory, with claimed ranges up to 3,000 km. Recent announcements indicate a new class of "missile drones" is under development, designed to counter Russian Shaheds.

The drone revolution was not confined to land and air; naval warfare also underwent a significant overhaul. Starlink-enabled Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs) like ‘Sea Baby’ and ‘Magura V5’ executed long-range strikes against Russia's Black Sea fleet, evolving from adapted commercial boats to purpose-built designs. Later in the conflict, Ukraine developed Unmanned Ground Systems (UGVs) primarily for logistics and demining whilst also streamlining military acquisition and established a dedicated Unmanned Systems Force to standardise procedures.

Russia's approach also saw significant strides. They achieved success by importing and modifying Iranian Shahed drones (Geran), facilitating mass, long-range attacks. Russia now domestically manufactures thousands of these Shaheds, enhancing them with features like jet engines and deploying them to swarm Ukrainian air defences enabling cruise missiles like the Iskander to strike their targets more easily. This has been readily apparent in the last week or so with nightly attacks on Kyiv with hundreds of drones and missiles.

Russia continues to employ various ISR UAVs and utilise mid-range loitering munitions like Lancet and Cube for striking targets beyond the line of contact. Russian forces heavily rely on commercially available quadcopters, often acquired through soldier fundraising, similar to Ukraine’s methods.

Reports indicate Russia is also developing and deploying simple, inexpensive, and easily replaceable UGVs, primarily for logistics, supply, mining, demining, and kamikaze roles. Much like Ukraine, they are experimenting with fibre optic control to counter electronic warfare.

The mirroring of Ukraine’s evolving capabilities extends to naval warfare, with Russia also developing Ukrainian-inspired USVs. Starlink or equivalent providers are being used for monitoring and countering Ukrainian USVs, and acting as FPV carriers.

Changing Rules and Costs

The proliferation of One-Way Attack (OWA), or kamikaze drones – simpler and cheaper to manufacture in bulk than traditional missiles – means weapons with significant range and precision are now accessible to a wider array of state and non-state actors. This compels military forces worldwide to adapt and increase investment in air defence and counter-drone systems. Intercepting an inexpensive drone with an expensive air defence missile is not a sustainable strategy, leading to a significant increase in the cost of defence. Layered air defences are becoming necessary to counter a variety of threats, including drones and traditional missiles.

Battlefield Dominance

Drones now saturate the battlespace, particularly near the line of contact. They provide pervasive reconnaissance, intelligence, and overwatch, making it extremely difficult for either side to mass forces or achieve breakthroughs. Soldiers on the front line frequently interact primarily with drones rather than enemy infantry, facing constant threats from FPV and bomb-dropping drones.

Targeting Critical Assets

Drones have enabled both sides to strike vital targets deep behind enemy lines. Ukraine has successfully used long-range drones to target Russian airbases, industrial sites, and oil infrastructure, aiming to disrupt revenue and military capability. Russia has likewise used Iranian Shahed drones and their domestic variant, Geran, to target Ukrainian critical infrastructure and military objectives across the country. Ukrainian USV attacks on the Russian Black Sea fleet have demonstrated the ability of unmanned systems to strike naval targets at long distances, severely impacting Russian naval operations.

Infrastructure Damage

Drone attacks, often in conjunction with missiles, have caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure, such as Ukraine's power grid, leading to widespread power cuts and water shortages.

Cost of Countermeasures

The sheer number of drones, sometimes replacing artillery shells in volume, necessitates significant investment in counter-drone technologies. Electronic warfare (EW) is a primary method for countering drones by jamming control or video signals, but it is not foolproof. It requires physical countermeasures like nets, barriers, and kinetic means (shotguns, rifles) against drones resistant to jamming. The technological game of "cat and mouse" in EW, with drones switching frequencies, adds to the complexity and cost of countermeasures. Portable EW systems are also being used at the trench level.

“In many ways drones are actually replacing artillery shells where artillery shells are absent or in very short supply" - Samuel Bendett, non-resident scholar at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Psychological Impacts and Responses

Deep strikes by long-range drones have a significant psychological impact, both on the military and civilian populations. They demonstrate that no location or asset is entirely safe. Russian authorities have implemented physical defences around sensitive sites and have even reportedly discussed rewarding citizens for attempting to intercept drones. The war's visibility, including drone combat footage shared on social media, also plays a role in the information environment.

The drone war in Ukraine has unequivocally redefined modern conflict, demonstrating how inexpensive, adaptable technology can achieve strategic impacts once reserved for costly, traditional weaponry. This ongoing evolution demands global attention, forcing military doctrines to adapt and nations to confront new vulnerabilities. As the landscape of warfare continues to shift, understanding these profound changes becomes ever more critical.