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CalculatedRisk Newsletter · Aug 18, 2026

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.293 million Annual Rate in July

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CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride · CalculatedRisk Newsletter

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,239,000. This is 12.4 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,415,000 and is 13.5 percent below the July 2025 rate of 1,432,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 808,000; this is 9.9 percent below the revised June figure of 897,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 421,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,443,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised June rate of 1,374,000 and is 3.1 percent above the July 2025 rate of 1,400,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 894,000; this is 2.5 percent above the revised June figure of 872,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 490,000 in July.
emphasis added

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000 (including housing bubble).

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in July. Multi-family starts were down 8.9% year-over-year. Single-family starts (red) decreased in July and were down 13.5% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in July were below expectations and starts for the previous two months were revised down.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2025 (blue) and 2026 (red).

Total starts were down 13.5% in July compared to July 2025.

Year-to-date, total starts are down 2.0% NSA compared to same period in 2025.

The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

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Read the original on calculatedrisk.substack.com

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