Buoyant is preparing to publish our 2026 outlook, but before we do, we wanted to reflect on how well we did with our 2025 predictions. As venture capitalists, it’s our job to spot and predict trends so we can identify successful investment opportunities and best support our portfolio companies. Publishing our grades holds us accountable - and it’s fun to see where we were far off the mark.
As a sneak peak, our most accurate predictions were (unsurprisingly) explosive growth in data centers and batteries. Read our full self-assessment of how accurate our crystal ball was last year here. Below is a summary.
Insurance industry on the brink means high costs and coverage gaps
2025 reinforced that climate-driven catastrophe risk + regulatory constraints + reinsurance costs are still translating into availability and affordability problems in key markets.
Grade: A
Stock market volatility will cause exit activity to fall short of investor expectations
IPO activity improved vs. 2023–24 lows but remained well below long-term averages. However, we cannot say this shortfall was due to stock market volatility. While poor post-IPO performance may cause other companies to stay private longer, the S&P was up 16.4% for the year and the NASDAQ was up 20.5%
Grade: B
Fossil fuels investment will outpace clean energy to feed the AI beast
In 2024, gas and coal provided 55% of the U.S. data center electricity mix, while renewables and nuclear provided 25%. While there is currently no full published report that provides a 2025 breakdown of actual data center energy mix, we can infer from announcement of new data centers. Natural gas was the clear winner as the most dominant dedicated power disclosed.
Grade: A
A softer macro climate industry domestically and internationally
For climate startups and equity financing, 2025 was down from the 2021–2022 boom years, but not as underperforming as policy headwinds would suggest. According to Sightline Climate, venture and growth investment totaled $40.5B in 2025, a modest 8% increase from 2024, however number of deals fell, signaling more money was going into fewer but more competitive deals.Grade: B+
Data Centers’ explosive growth continues
This was THE dominant story in the world of energy in 2025. Many hyperscalers and cloud providers report that clouds are sold out, capacity is constrained, and demand is outstripping supply.Grade: A+
Increasing private financing for nature-based solutions
While this is directionally right, and there is real momentum including more structures, more corporate offtakes, and more blended finance, it’s starting from a small base and still dwarfed by the gap.Grade: B
AI goes vertical
Horizontal use cases continue to dominate across industries, especially chatbots and copilots, reflecting their broad applicability and ease of use. General-purpose platforms currently account for roughly 69% of all AI software revenue in 2025 (NetGuru). However, this starts to shift when looking at industry-specific priorities: the broader Vertical AI software market is valued between $45 billion and $172 billion, depending on the inclusion of broader SaaS “wrappers” (Gartner, Technavio).
Grade: B+
Batteries keep moving up and to the right
It was a good year for batteries, with many new deployments. According to Wood MacKenzie, total battery storage installations as of Q3 2025 surpassed 2024’s total, with utility scale deployments growing 27% and residential deployments growing 70%.
Grade: A+
“Bring Your Own Power” (BYOP) on the rise in the US
More data center operators than ever before are discussing onsite generation, bypassing the grid. For example, 38% of facilities are expected to use some onsite generation for primary power by 2030, which is up from 13% in 2024. But the total number of actual deployments have been limited due to the interconnection wait times of 5-7 years, though we expect to see more in 2026.
Grade: B-
Overall Grade: A-
Stay tuned for our 2026 outlook.
We’re excited to announce our investment in SkyFi, an Earth intelligence platform democratizing access to satellite imagery and analytics.
Geospatial intelligence is poised to reshape decision-making across climate-critical sectors — from energy and agriculture to insurance and finance — but today, most organizations still face a frustrating reality: high contract minimums, long sales cycles, opaque procurement, and a steep learning curve just to get started.
SkyFi flips that model on its head with a global marketplace for satellite imagery and analytics, offering instant access to archived data or the ability to task new imagery across hundreds of sensors, with no minimums, no long-term lockups, and no specialized training required. And with built-in AI tools, SkyFi helps customers turn raw imagery into actionable insights in minutes.
We’re proud to co-lead SkyFi’s oversubscribed $12.7M Series A alongside IronGate Capital Advisors as the company expands access to Earth data and scales across commercial and government markets.
👉Read more here: Why We Invested | Press release | Axios Exclusive | TechCrunch
HData announced an investment from MassMutual Ventures’ Climate Technology Fund, more here
Raptor Maps was named to the 2026 Global Cleantech 100 list. Read the full report here
SkyFi integrated Vantor (fka Maxar) onto their platform, partnership announced here. They also integrated ICEYE onto their platform, partnership announced here
SkyFi was selected to be part of NATO DIANA 2026 Defense Innovation Accelerator, more on that here
Beni released Beni Lens, the first visual search engine for secondhand fashion, more here
ReelData signed a multi-year deal with Chilean salmon farmer Invermar, more here
Ocient’s Chris Gladwin wrote an article in Martech View about B2B growth strategy, more here
The Buoyant team will be at Distributech in San Diego from February 2-5th, we’d love to set up a meeting if you will be there!
Raptor Maps has RaptorCon 26 coming up in Chicago on February 25–26th. If you are a solar company interested in attending, register here.
This Is the Most Promising Climate Tech Company, According to People Who Know, HeatMap. Our very own Amy was interviewed for this article!
Venezuela oil industry too shaky for U.S. companies to rush to re-enter, experts say, CBS News
Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2026, Bloomberg
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