Discussing Complexity in Soccer and Football

I saw two different, but related discussions about difficulty (hard) and complexity during the World Cup. The first argued soccer was inferior to football because football was a more complex game, whereas soccer’s universality was due to its simplicity. The second suggested the final third (of the field near the attacking goal) was the separator in soccer, which explains the best players playing forward, but others argued defense was harder.

Football is complicated, but simple (relatively-speaking). Soccer is the more skillful, complex sport. “Complicated systems rely on individual components to execute a highly specific task; to fulfill a tightly designated role,” wrote professor John Kiely. A quarterback has a specific task; an offensive lineman has a different specific task. Every player fills a tightly-designated role, and the entire team falls apart when one player fails in his role. When a running back does not pick up the blitzing linebacker, he sacks the quarterback, forcing a fumble, and the team loses possession or concedes a scoop-and-score touchdown. Ten players executed properly, but one component failed, and the team lost possession. This is a machine-like, complicated system, which is intolerant of error and ultimately fragile (Kiely).

Football is not complex. The running back had one job: Pick up the blitz. The linemen had one job. The receiver had one job. Quarterback has some complexity, as the quarterback must survey 11 defenders and pick out the correct play, although this occurs before the ball is snapped, and the coach generally has limited the selection to one or two plays depending on the defense’s alignment. After the snap, the quarterback has to read five to seven players in coverage to see the opening before it appears, although he knows the routes his receivers should be running, simplifying his options. If the receiver runs a different route, the likelihood of an interception increases: The system is intolerant of error. The game is complicated, not complex.

Antifragile Defense

Soccer is complex. Complex systems respond to changing circumstances, working together to achieve multiple goals, and playing different roles in different contexts (Kiely). When the opponent’s right winger beats the left fullback, the left-sided center back covers, the right-sided center back shifts over, and the right fullback drops deeper. The system is not intolerant of error, but designed to compensate and recover. There is not one single opponent to cover, as a deeper midfielder may make a run to the penalty spot. Players work together and adjust accordingly moment by moment. There are dozens of potential interactions at any moment between the 11 defenders and 11 attackers, and roles constantly shift. There are few black-and-white decisions and many shades of grey.

Football players are highly-specialized; only goalkeepers are highly-specialized in soccer, and their role has generalized in the modern game, as the Sweeper Keeper has become the norm more than the exception. Goalkeepers are evaluated as much by their ability to be the 11th attacker and to initiate the offense as they are their shot-stopping abilities. How many quarterbacks are evaluated by their tackling abilities? Soccer has position designations, but the roles are more fluid than football positions, and every position requires every skill. Attackers defend, and defenders score goals; a defensive tackle never throws a football. An offensive lineman can be a Hall-of-Fame level player without having any ball skills. Soccer players use their feet, a more complex motor skill than using one’s hands, and every player must be adept with the ball. Soccer involves more complex motor skills.

Football may be harder; that is a subjective judgement, largely based on one’s experience. On the spectrum from most athletic-based to most skill-based, football is toward the athletic-based side, whereas soccer is toward the skill-based side. Football defensive backs especially are sports’ best athletes, but soccer is the more skillful, complex sport.

Antifragile Offense

Are attackers more talented than defenders? Is defending more difficult? Many defenders started as attackers and moved to defense as they moved up the competitive ladder, suggesting those who remain as attackers are the most talented. Of course, coaches may shift certain players instead of others based on other factors than talent, such as personality, size, physicality, and more. Messi would not make a great central defender, but that does not mean defense is harder, nor does it prove attackers are more talented. The best players eventually find the position that optimizes their specific characteristics or occasionally the one enabling them to get on the field the quickest, like England’s Nico O’Reilly shifting from midfield to left back for Manchester City to play more as a 20-year-old.

The lack of time and space and the need for precision within the attacking third suggests attacking is more complex than defending. Players have less room to maneuver and less time to act. Passing a ball 30 yards is harder than passing a ball 5 yards, but a 30-yard pass from one relatively stationary open player to another is simpler than the 5-yard pass between two defenders to a cutting teammate navigating the offside trap. The lack of time and space, and the increased demand for precision, make dribbling, passing, and shooting more complex as one gets closer to the offensive penalty area.

Defenders within the offensive third primarily need to disrupt the attackers. They do not need to make a perfect pass; anywhere away from goal suffices. Attackers make moves perfected through hundreds of thousands of practice repetitions, whereas defenders simply need to kick the ball away to disrupt the attackers. However, defenders must defend while moving backward, and attackers can use fakes, forcing defenders to read the right moment and movement to act

The low scores suggest defending is easier, but defenders must disrupt attackers for 90 minutes without making a mistake, whereas attackers only have to be right once, and they go home the hero. A defender with a 99% success rate for the game can be the goat, whereas the attacker with a 1% success rate can be the G.O.A.T.

Hard is subjective. Messi likely would find defending harder than attacking, whereas William Saliba likely finds defending easier than trying to dribble past two defenders from the wing to the edge of the penalty area and curling a shot around and past the goalkeeper into the opposite corner of the goal. The discussions are interesting, but generally reflective of experiences and skill sets, not absolute truths. Complexity is more task-dependent, and attacking is more complex than defending, at least on the ball.