The Global Bond Selloff since 2020: CHART OF THE DAY
Four percentage points of yield rise in six years: the long bond’s profound slow-motion repricing, and warning...
DeLong's Grasping Reality Weblog
Economy in the 2000s & Before: working, making, apportioning, talking, taking, & more. What I know and can learn about it, & related things.
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Latest episodes
(VERY PARTIAL-)CROSSPOST: GARY MARCUS: Is Anthropic Making Money? How Much Money?
Nobody ought to get superrich selling LLM-services: Anthropic’s IPO & the "airline scenario"; the problem is that back in The Day I was the same bear on Google & FaceBook, & I was very wrong...
Again, More of a Refining Crunch than a Crude Oil-Supply Crunch: CHART OF THE DAY
Lose 7.5 million barrels a day of refining capacity along with crude-oil supply and the shortage shows up more in the refined-product prices than in the crude-oil price...
The Fed Chair Who Whispers: Kevin Warsh’s “Lean Messaging” Is Anything But: LAUGH OF THE DAY
Forward guidance, but outsourced to anonymous sources "familiar with the thinking of..." & "close to..." the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. It is funny. One has to laugh. & also cry...
CROSSPOST: PATRICK WYMAN: The Human Sacrifices of the Shang Dynasty
13,000 names we’ll never know: the sacrificed victims of China’s first dynasty... China’s first literate state didn’t just practice human sacrifice. It industrialized it—and wrote down the numbers...
READING: The Duc de Saint-Simon on the Battle of Blenheim
322 years ago today, in 1704, a combined Austrian, Dutch, British, Hanoverian, Hessian, Danish, and Prussian army under the joint command of John Churchill, Duke of Marlborough, and Eugen Franz...
CROSSPOST: SCOTT AARONSON (2013): Against John Searle's Analogy of an Apparently Chinese-Understanding Room
Scott Aaronson’s complexity rebuttal to Searle's "machines can mimic but cannot understand"; Searle's intuition pump hides the scale of the computations...
Nate Silver & Eli McKown Dawson: FLIPR: WEBSITE OF THE DAY
Nate & Eli's subheadline: "Silver Bulletin's prediction for every Senate, House, and gubernatorial election in 2026"; 99.9% wishful thinking-free, which is true of nobody else in that line of work...
The Family of Man: CHART OF THE DAY
The Zhang-Moorjani-&-al. map of archaic DNA; the knotty question of when, exactly, we became us; & how we appear to be an evolutionary long-shot...
2026-08-12 0.1% 1-Month 3.4% 12-Month Inflation CPI Release: CHART OF THE DAY
The Consumer Price Index came in in line with expectations: the calm number and the silent Chair: what July’s CPI release says, and what Kevin Warsh won’t say...
OpenAI's Zero-Day Leviathan Breaches Hugging Face's Black-ICE Security Wall: How I Think You Should Think About the Latest "AI Goes Rogue" Story
No Malice In It, No Mind In It Either: What Really Happened When Zero-Day Leviathan Showed Up at the Hugging Face Cyberparty...
CROSSPOST: MICHAEL SELLERS: Trump Thinks Iran Is Ready to Deal. Iran Thinks Trump is. Who's Right?
You Cannot Surrender to a Clown Darth Vader Who Cannot Keep from Altering the Deal: Iran, Trump, & the Strait-of-Hormuz State of Affairs...
The Grave of Karl Polanyi: PICTURE OF THE DAY
On analyzing market, bureaucracy, democracy, ideology, ethnicity, and all the other fictions and systems we East African Plains Apes have imagined into reality to assist us in coordinating our lives.
Trump's Lackies Say He Is Powerless to Increase Affordability Because of Things Biden & Powell Did Five Years Ago: CHARTS OF THE DAY
Yes, that is the message that Trump lackey Kevin Hassett—and why did he get to have a career after his monstrously cynical and behemothly stupid and wrong "Dow 36000"?—is trying to insinuate on TV...
Late Summer for the Internal Combustion-Engine Vehicle Sector: CHART OF THE DAY
But late summer, not yet autumn: internal-combustion engine production is only dying slowly, and its predominance in the global vehicle fleet is dying slower still...
(PARTIAL-)CROSSPOST: PETER CONTI-BROWN: Trump Continues His War Against Fed Independence
Piece behind Peter's pay wall; his subheadline: "After a brief reprieve, Trump is back with his pretextual war against Lisa Cook, which is in fact a war against the Federal Reserve"...
PODCAST: Hexapodia XIII: Cory Doctorow: Mandated Interoperability: We Can't Make It Work, or Can We?: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES
From 2021-05-04: That week with special guest Cory Doctorow; Noah Smith & Brad DeLong's 30:00 < [Length of Weekly Podcast] < 60:00; the key insight: interoperability was a lucky historical accident...
CROSSPOST: SEAN ILLING: You Can't Have Homer, Nietzsche & Jesus
Sean's subheadline: "Thoughts on 'The Odyssey' and the incoherence of the cultural Right"; is the Christian Essence the Golden Rule, or is it the Theomakhy of the Eskhaton?...
CROSSPOST: DAN FROOMKIN: The Reflecting Pool Story Is About Trump's Grip on Reality, But the Press Corps Won’t Go There
Dan's subheadline: "Journalists are treating his ‘vandalism’ claim as if it were a normal, disputable argument. But it’s completely delusional"; Dan has been worth reading since the WaPoWHWatch...
Exploring Truly Useful Use Cases for "AI"?: QUESTION OF THE DAY
Can I get it to teach me things I do not already know?; or, experimenting with "attention" on Bosworth Field on August 22, 1485...
"Any Sufficiently Advanced Technological Problem Is Indistinguishable from a Curse": LAUGH OF THE DAY
Clarke’s Third Law has a dark twin: the corollary Arthur C. Clarke declined to write...