The average temperature of our world, across the last three years, has been more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial – the aspirational limit defined by the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, and widely regarded as marking the dangerous climate change guardrail beyond which things will get very nasty indeed. Due to the manner in which it is calculated, the permanent crossing of the 1.5°C threshold won’t be confirmed until a decade after it actually happens. Bearing in mind the unprecedented El Niño that is rapidly developing in the tropical Pacific, however, it is almost certain that the only way we will see the 1.5°C mark again, is by looking in our rear-view mirror.
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