June and July were brutal months, but we survived, did a lot of shopping, cut some positions, and rebalanced the portfolio.
Portfolio hit 630k, and we are 20% YTD vs SPY 12.81% (As of Aug 7 2026)
A lot of people are bearish on August–October because of weak seasonality, midterm elections, rate hike fears, and geopolitical risk. I was bearish too, but I’m starting to change sides and take the contrarian view.
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A lot of damage has already been done under the surface. High-beta and momentum stocks got crushed, leverage was flushed out, sentiment turned extremely negative, and many investors are now expecting another major leg lower.
At the same time, earnings are still holding up, AI capex remains strong, chip demand is healthy, inflation pressures are cooling, and rate hike expectations are starting to come down.
Today’s jobs data supports the Fed staying patient. Payrolls fell 23K vs. +80K expected, pushing September & 2026 hike odds below 50%. Bonds, stocks, and gold are rallying as short-term yields fall.
That said, the economy still looks solid, with unemployment falling and Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking Q3 growth near 5.8%.
That doesn’t mean the market goes straight up from here. I still expect volatility and pullbacks, but I think the risk/reward is starting to improve.
When everyone starts expecting the same outcome, I usually start looking the other way.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. I’m simply sharing my personal opinions, research, portfolio decisions and investing strategy for educational and informational purposes. Always do your own research and make decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance.
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Here are 6 reasons I’m becoming more bullish:
Huge margin calls already happened. A lot of leverage and speculation got flushed out, including Korea and highly leveraged traders.
Oil prices are falling, rate hike expectations are cooling, and inflation is starting to ease despite what many people think.
Momentum stocks just went through one of their worst sell-offs ever, even worse than parts of the Dot-Com era.
A lot of the new content creators have suddenly gone quiet. Fear and negativity are already extremely high. They are scared to sound overly bullish
AI capex spending is still strong, chip demand remains healthy, and shortages are still showing up across key parts of the supply chain.
Earnings remain strong, with roughly 90% of S&P 500 companies beating earnings expectations so far.
CASE STUDY OF THE AI BUBBLE
Right now, a lot of people are calling the top in memory and AI stocks, most notably names like Micron and Marvell. But history shows that major technology cycles rarely move straight up — and big corrections don’t automatically mean the trend is over.
Look at Cisco during the internet boom.
From roughly 1994–1997, CSCO exploded from around $0.80 to $9, then dropped nearly 40%. At the time, people called the top, said the internet was a bubble, and believed the run was finished.
Instead, Cisco V-shaped and rallied from roughly $5 to $18 between 1997–1998.
Then it crashed another ~40%, and once again investors said: “That’s it. This is the top. Sell everything.”
But the long-term technology cycle still wasn’t finished.
The lesson: even the biggest secular winners can suffer brutal 30–40% corrections multiple times before the real cycle ends. Similar to what we are seeing now.
My outlook for Aug- Sept remains bullish in the near term and believe the S&P 500 can reach 7,900–8,000 in August.
One major catalyst still ahead, in my view, is a decline in rate-hike fears and inflation concerns. If those fears fade, bond yields can move lower, financial conditions ease, and stock market valuations have room to expand.
Winston Churchill once wrote that war offices are often “preparing for the last war.” Financial markets tend to do the same thing: investors become so focused on the previous crisis that they use the wrong framework for what comes next.
We’ve seen this repeatedly:
Post-Dot-Com: Investors spent years believing technology valuations were permanently broken. They weren’t.
Post-GFC: Investors argued stocks would struggle for decades under a “new normal.” That proved far too pessimistic.
Post-2022: Investors remain obsessed with the idea that inflation is about to come roaring back.
Today, that fear is showing up in expectations for another Fed rate hike.
Markets are still pricing a meaningful probability of a September hike, but I think those odds are too high. My base case is that the Fed does not hike in September.
The key tests are the upcoming economic data, particularly CPI.
If employment continues to come in softer than expected and core inflation continues cooling, September hike expectations should fall sharply.
That could push Treasury yields lower, support P/E expansion, and give equities another leg higher.
My August target remains S&P 500 7,900–8,000.
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