Update on NRP, Variable Dividends, Buybacks and Soda Ash
NRP has reached the finish line of a remarkable turnaround, and is poised to become a capital return engine
Base Hit Investing
A Saber Capital investment journal
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Category 2 Large Caps and Current Opportunities
Some of our most reliable investments have come from stocks of good companies when sentiment turns negative. Some current ideas...
Weekend Thoughts: Malone’s Born to Be Wired Book; Thoughts on Cable; Is CHTR Cheap?
Thoughts on the cable industry...
Thoughts on ROIC, Margins and Turnover; Mailbox Money and an Update on Natural Resource Partners (NRP)
"A majority of life’s errors are caused by forgetting what one is really trying to do.” - Charlie Munger
AI Fear Trade, Emotional Markets, Avoiding Value Traps, and Current Opportunities
Some thoughts on the recent emotional "AI Fear Trade" along with case studies; and comments on NRP, DOUG, PBI, oil, silver, and DIS
Thoughts on Market Valuations, AI, Productivity and Shortages
Plus: Tickle Me Elmo and end user demand; Why do all shortages end in gluts? And who is TSMC's customers' customers' customer?
Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings
More Thoughts on NFLX and Theaters, Ted Sarandos comments for that business, CNK, MCS; also FCNCA earnings update, and the overemphasis on asset sensitivity and expense growth
Contrarian Low-Cost Producer at a 15% FCF Yield + Excess Real Estate
Large margin of safety from the valuable real estate being monetized, underappreciated moat with key cost advantages, growth prospects thanks to new law taking effect in 2026. Mgmt buying back shares.
Oil Free Cash Flow: California and Canada vs Texas; Charlie Munger's Investment Mistake; A Producer at Half of Liquidation Value
Why California & Canadian oil production has better ROIC and more FCF than Texas; a look at one of Charlie's biggest investment mistakes (his own words); a discounted producer buying back shares
Movie Theaters Risk and Opportunities; Netflix/WBD Deal; Is Disney Cheap?
Is the recent selloff in CNK overblown? Thoughts on the NFLX/WBD deal; MCS FCF; Thoughts on Disney and its valuation
Understanding ROIC on Low Growth Businesses
A discussion of ROIC vs FCF yield; does ROIC matter in low growth businesses? Some current examples of high FCF yield stocks
Two Types of Bank Investments; Thoughts on Asset Sensitivity; FCNCA's Value
Summary of bank investment strategy (bargains and compounders); Asset sensitivity might be misunderstood; a comparison of FCNCA vs other regional banks
High FCF Yield Stocks; Returns from Business Results vs P/E Ratio Expansion
Examples of stocks that offer high FCF yields, where returns are earned from business results without requiring P/E expansion
Quiet Compounders, a Hidden Moat and an 18% FCF Yield at Pitney Bowes (PBI)
A high margin, high ROIC business with a hidden moat for 5.5 P/FCF that is buying back shares.
Investment Evolution or Flexible Tactics?
A look at Warren Buffett's remarkable investment flexibility and some thoughts on opportunities over the next decade; current valuations; how to avoid value traps
A Compounder That's Ramping Up the Buyback
A big buyback announcement (14% of the shares) & recent insider buying; summary of the valuation and thoughts on the opportunistic mindset of its management team
A Gem of a Thrift Conversion
Recently converted thrift trades at 65% of book value, has lots of excess capital, pristine credit quality, is buying back meaningful amounts of its stock, and has consistent insider buying
Short-termism and Opportunities; Buffett's Views on Tariffs
Clip of a Saber client note with some thoughts on trade deficits and market behavior
CNK Buyback, Special Situation Review, and Some Thoughts on Theaters
A Lincoln Post with some quick thoughts on CNK's valuation, its new buyback announcement and a review of the Fairfax preferred shares.
Investment Categories and Update on Holdings
Investor letter to Saber clients from last fall that outlines three types of investments in our portfolio, along with some updated comments on the stocks mentioned