Race to the WH
 |
| Available in | English |
|---|---|
| Founded | June 2020 |
| Country of origin | United States |
| Created by | Logan Phillips |
| URL | racetothewh |
Race to the WH is an American political forecasting website that was founded in 2020 by Logan Phillips. The website predicts presidential, senate, house, and governor races.
History
[edit]Race to the WH was founded in 2020 by Logan Phillips. Phillips started the program when he was getting his graduate degree at Columbia University. He studied Presidential Campaign Management under Karine Jean-Pierre, the former Biden press secretary. Phillips worked on Hillary Clinton's 2016 presidential election campaign and Dannel Malloy's re-election campaign for governor of Connecticut in 2014.[1][non-primary source needed]
Race to the WH uses a political model with quantitative data to forecast their election, instead of using qualitative data.[2] They create a forecast in which they simulate the national popular vote, factor it onto the current partisan lean of a state, comparing it to results from the last 50 years of elections in that state, and then running it through the a simulator. During this, they also take partisan drift (how a state has been moving relative to the nation in recent elections) and recent special election performance as factors as well.[3][better source needed] They then run their model over 50,000 times and then average it to find the most common results, accounting for factors of over performance with a demographic or region.[4] Lastly, they then run their models filtering conditions to match previous elections to test the accuracy of the model.[5]
In the 2024 cycle, Race to the WH provided polling averages to Split Ticket for their House of Representatives predictions.[6][better source needed] Logan Phillips also did a joint interview with Lakshya Jain of Split Ticket on Politico about the 2024 presidential election.[7]
Predictions
[edit]During the 2022 election cycle, Race to the WH called 96.5% of the races correctly, only getting one Senate race, two gubernatorial races, and 16/435 of the House races incorrect, making them one of the "most accurate forecasters of 2022".[8][9]
During the 2024 election cycle, Race to the WH incorrectly predicted Kamala Harris would have a higher chance at winning the presidency,[10] due to strong showings in the blue wall.[9][11] However, the group did correctly predict all but two of the Senate races, incorrectly forecasting Bob Casey Jr.'s and Sherrod Brown's win in Pennsylvania and Ohio respectively.
Race to the WH's 2026 election cycle predictions were featured on American political website 270towin and on the website of American statistician Nate Silver.[12][2][non-primary source needed]
Race to the WH and Logan Phillips believe that Democrats could have a natural advantage in the 2026 as these midterms are under a Republican president, and the fact that midterms always affect the sitting president's party.[6][better source needed] Their predictions and data are also cited by Gonzaga University as a credible place to find information about electoral forecasting, and Cambridge University with regards to interpreting forecasting data from the 2024 cycle.[13][14]
Race to the WH has compiled early 2028 presidential primary averages, which have JD Vance winning the Republican nomination and Gavin Newsom winning the Democratic nomination.[15][16]
References
[edit]- ↑ "RacetotheWH - Our Mission and Track Record". Race to the WH. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- 1 2 McKown-Dawson, Eli. "Georgia has gone from a luxury to a necessity for Democrats". www.natesilver.net. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- ↑ Payne, Russell (September 16, 2024). "Nate Silver slammed over Trump election model — but forecasters "all saying roughly the same thing"". Salon.com. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
- ↑ Sobowale, Adetutu (October 4, 2024). "Harris, Trump locked in tight White House race". The Punch. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
- ↑ "How the 2024 Presidential Forecast Works (Methodology)". Race to the WH. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- 1 2 Payne, Russell (August 5, 2025). "Are Democrats blowing it? A "blue wave" is no sure thing". Salon.com. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- ↑ "'Higher Odds for an Upset': Election Forecasters Break Down the 2024 Race". POLITICO. November 2, 2024. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- ↑ "RacetotheWH - Record of Calling Elections - 2022". Race to the WH. March 30, 2023. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- 1 2 Payne, Russell (October 5, 2024). ""She has an easier path to 270": Experts disagree on who has the "advantage" 30 days before election". Salon.com. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- ↑ Scher, Bill (September 10, 2024). "Probabilistic Election Forecasts Are Stupid and You Should Not Look at Them". Washington Monthly. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
- ↑ "The Latest on the Race to the White House". TKW Research. October 14, 2024. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
- ↑ "RacetotheWH 2026 Senate Forecast - 270toWin". 270toWin.com. Retrieved August 23, 2025.
- ↑ Charles, Patrick. "LibGuides: Voting Rights: Current Landscape of Voting Rights". libguides.law.gonzaga.edu. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
- ↑ Phillipe, Mongraine (October 15, 2024). "State-Level Forecasts for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Trump Back with a Vengeance?" (PDF). Cambridge. Retrieved September 29, 2025.
- ↑ "2028 GOP Primary Polling Average". Race to the WH. Retrieved September 30, 2025.
- ↑ Rego, Max (September 21, 2025). "Stephen A. Smith: 'Who cares' what Kamala Harris has to say?". The Hill. Archived from the original on September 23, 2025. Retrieved September 30, 2025.