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2020 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election

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2020 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election
← 2018
14 September 2020[1]
2021 →
 
Candidate Yoshihide Suga Fumio Kishida Shigeru Ishiba
Leader's seat Kanagawa 2nd Hiroshima 1st Tottori 1st
LDP MPs 288 (73.28%) 79 (20.10%) 26 (6.62%)
Party members 89 (63.12%) 10 (7.09%) 42 (29.79%)
Total 377 (70.60%) 89 (16.67%) 68 (12.73%)
Election results
President before election

Shinzo Abe

 Elected President

Yoshihide Suga

The 2020 Liberal Democratic Party of Japan presidential election was triggered by Shinzo Abe's announcement on 28 August 2020 that he would resign as President of the Liberal Democratic Party and Prime Minister of Japan, citing a relapse of his colitis. Voting took place on 14 September 2020 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, three days before the National Diet was scheduled to hold a session to elect the new prime minister.[1] Initially scheduled to be held in September 2021, incumbent LDP president and the longest-serving Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, suddenly resigned on 28 August 2020, citing recent health concerns, prompting an election to select the president to serve the rest of Abe's term.[2][3][4]

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga easily won the election, securing endorsements from a majority of voting members of the party in the days preceding the vote.[5] As the Liberal Democratic Party controlled a majority in the National Diet as a member of the governing coalition, Suga successfully succeeded Abe as Prime Minister of Japan on 16 September 2020. His principal rival, Fumio Kishida, later succeeded him as prime minister after Suga's resignation in October 2021. The third-placed candidate, Shigeru Ishiba, would eventually succeed Kishida in 2024 after the latter also resigned the party leadership and the premiership.

Background

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Following several hospital visits which launched speculation into his health,[6][7] incumbent prime minister Shinzo Abe announced during a press conference on 28 August 2020 that he would resign before the end of his final term in office due to a resurgence of his chronic ulcerative colitis. During the press conference, Abe announced that as a result the LDP is preparing for a leadership election to choose his successor, and that he would not endorse any specific candidate.[2][3][4]

Procedure

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There are two ways by which the president could be elected in the leadership election: the first would be an open election in which voting power is given to both party members and members of the National Diet. Each would receive half of the voting power to elect the new president. The other method would allow the vote to be restricted to the Diet members (394) and representatives from each of Japan's 47 prefectures (141), which would add up to 535 electors.[8] According to an LDP lawmaker, Toshihiro Nikai, the party's secretary-general, decided on the second option.[9] To appear on the ballot, candidates must receive at least 20 nominations from the 394 Diet members in the LDP caucus.[10]

Timeline

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2020

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  • 28 August – Shinzo Abe announces his resignation as prime minister and LDP president. He will remain on until a successor is chosen.[2][3][4]
  • 29 August – Party officials announce the election will take place someday before, on, or after 15 September 2020.[11]
  • 31 August – Party officials announce the election will be held on 14 September 2020.[1]
  • 1 September – Former Foreign Affairs Minister Fumio Kishida and former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba officially announce their candidacies.[12]
  • 2 September – Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga officially announces his candidacy.[13]
  • 8 September – Campaign officially began. The candidates held a joint press conference.[14]
  • 9 September – The first of two public debate between the leadership candidates was held.[14]
  • 12 September – The second public debate between the leadership candidates was held.[14]
  • 14 September – The election was held; Yoshihide Suga wins on the first ballot with 377 votes.

Candidates

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Declared

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Candidate(s) Date of birth Notable positions Party faction(s) District(s) Announced Reference(s)
Yoshihide Suga		 6 December 1948
(age 71)		 Member of the House of Representatives (since 1996)
Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2006–2007)
Chief Cabinet Secretary (since 2012)		 Ganesha no Kai [ja]
(Suga)
Kanagawa 2nd		 2 September 2020 [13]
Fumio Kishida		 29 July 1957
(age 63)		 Member of the House of Representatives (since 1993)
Minister of Foreign Affairs (2012–2017)
Acting Defense Minister (2017)		 Kōchikai
(Kishida)
Hiroshima 1st		 1 September 2020 [15]
Shigeru Ishiba		 4 February 1957
(age 63)		 Member of the House of Representatives (since 1986)
Defense Minister (2007–2008)
2008, 2012 and 2018 LDP leadership candidate		 Suigetsukai
(Ishiba)
Tottori 1st		 1 September 2020 [12]

Declined

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Supporters

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Recommenders

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Party regulations require candidates to have the written support at least 20 Diet members, known as recommenders, to run.

Yoshihide Suga
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Fumio Kishida
Leader of recommenders and Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Shigeru Ishiba
Leader of recommenders
Campaign Manager
Recommenders
Number of recommenders by factions
Candidates Yoshihide Suga Fumio Kishida Shigeru Ishiba
Heisei Kenkyūkai 4 0 1
Kinmirai Seiji Kenkyūkai 1 0 0
Kōchikai 0 16 0
Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai 5 0 0
Shikōkai 3 0 0
Shisuikai 3 0 0
Suigetsukai 0 0 15
Yūrinkai [ja] 1 4 1
No faction 4 0 3

Endorsements

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Endorsements of Shigeru Ishiba
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 1
Endorsements of Fumio Kishida
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 1
Endorsements of Yoshihide Suga
Members of the National Diet
Prefectural politicians
Municipal politicians
Party factions
Other prominent individuals
Organizations
Media
Total endorsements: 10

Opinion polling

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Nationwide

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%support010203040508/30/20209/3/20209/9/2020KishidaIshibaSugaUndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 Liberal Democra...
View source data.
Polling firm/link Date of polling Sample size Fumio Kishida Shinjiro Koizumi Tarō Kōno Shigeru Ishiba Hakubun Shimomura Yoshihide Suga Undecided/NOTA Notes
Mainichi Shimbun/SSRC 9 September 2020 Unknown – – – 36% – 44% 20%
Asahi Shimbun 2–3 September 2020 1,130 5% – – 25% – 38% 32%
Nikkei/TV Tokyo 29–30 August 2020 Unknown 6% 14% 15% 28% – 11% 26%
Kyodo News 28–30 August 2020 1,050 7.5% 10.1% 13.6% 34.3% – 14.3% 20.2%

Results

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Full result[22][23]
Candidate Diet members Party members Total points
Votes % Popular votes % Allocated votes % Votes %
Yoshihide Suga 当 28873.28% 367,16454.34%8963.12% 377
70.60%
Fumio Kishida 7920.10% 91,85813.60%107.09% 89
16.67%
Shigeru Ishiba 266.62% 216,59732.06%4229.79% 68
12.73%
Total 393 100.00% 675,619 100.00% 141 100.00% 534 100.00%
Valid votes 393 100.00% 675,619 141 100.00% 534 100.00%
Invalid and blank votes 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00%
Turnout 393[a] 99.75% 141 100.00% 534 99.81%
Registered voters 394 100.00% 141 100.00% 535 100.00%

44 prefectural LDP branches held primaries, while the prefectural federations in Hokkaido and Niigata conducted questionnaire-style surveys among their members and the LDP Akita didn't hold any form of membership vote.

Of the 46 primaries or surveys, Kishida only carried his home prefecture of Hiroshima, winning all three delegates, and Yamanashi where he won two delegates over one for Suga.

Ishiba won all three delegates in his home prefecture of Tottori, and carried Toyama, Mie, Shimane, Kōchi and Miyazaki by two delegates to one over Suga. Yamagata, Fukushima, Kagawa, Nagasaki and Kumamoto split their delegates evenly between the three candidates.

In all other prefectures, Suga prevailed, winning either all three prefectural delegates, or two with the third going to Ishiba, depending on the vote margin of his victory and on whether the primary voting system was d'Hondt proportional, as it was in the majority of prefectures, or FPTP.[22]

Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures

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Results of Party Members' Votes by Prefectures[22]
Prefectures Yoshihide Suga Shigeru Ishiba Fumio Kishida
Votes % Votes % Votes %
Aichi 20,698 59.8% 2 12,137 35.1% 1 1,751 5.1% 0
Akita[b] No votes 3 No votes 0 No votes 0
Aomori 4,207 61.1% 2 2,255 32.7% 1 430 6.2% 0
Chiba[c] 10,998 58.2% 3 7,059 37.4% 0 834 4.4% 0
Ehime 6,522 53.1% 2 4,883 39.8% 1 870 7.1% 0
Fukui 4,051 57.3% 2 2,407 34.1% 1 610 8.6% 0
Fukuoka 8,038 50.0% 2 4,408 27.4% 1 3,623 22.6% 0
Fukushima 4,130 43.0% 1 3,250 33.8% 1 2,233 23.2% 1
Gifu 12,859 53.5% 2 7,819 32.6% 1 3,342 13.9% 0
Gunma 9,918 58.1% 2 6,361 37.2% 1 808 4.7% 0
Hiroshima 1,655 8.6% 0 2,137 11.1% 0 15,507 80.3% 3
Hokkaido[c] 11,678 56.1% 3 7,634 36.6% 0 1,517 7.3% 0
Hyōgo 7,847 54.6% 2 5,406 37.6% 1 1,121 7.8% 0
Ibaraki 18,790 59.3% 2 9,842 31.0% 1 3,070 9.7% 0
Ishikawa 7,737 50.1% 2 4,266 27.7% 1 3,429 22.2% 0
Iwate 3,039 62.6% 2 1,594 32.8% 1 222 4.6% 0
Kagawa 5,063 42.4% 1 3,418 28.6% 1 3,460 29.0% 1
Kagoshima 6,292 58.3% 2 3,811 35.3% 1 691 6.4% 0
Kanagawa[c] 30,447 78.6% 3 6,996 18.1% 0 1,272 3.3% 0
Kōchi 2,132 39.5% 1 3,092 57.4% 2 167 3.1% 0
Kumamoto 5,881 44.1% 1 3,203 24.0% 1 4,259 31.9% 1
Kyoto 4,922 51.3% 2 3,724 38.8% 1 948 9.9% 0
Mie 2,630 30.9% 1 4,239 49.9% 2 1,630 19.2% 0
Miyagi 6,255 65.7% 2 2,104 22.1% 1 1,162 12.2% 0
Miyazaki 3,040 41.0% 1 3,461 46.7% 2 915 12.3% 0
Nagano 5,508 54.3% 2 3,978 39.2% 1 655 6.5% 0
Nagasaki 4,986 43.9% 1 3,516 30.9% 1 2,866 25.2% 1
Nara[d] 3,145 62.6% 2 1,544 30.7% 1 335 6.7% 0
Niigata 8,990 69.6% 3 3,449 26.7% 0 482 3.7% 0
Ōita 4,709 55.8% 2 3,187 37.8% 1 544 6.4% 0
Okayama 6,270 53.9% 2 4,233 36.4% 1 1,132 9.7% 0
Okinawa[24][23][c] 2,298 63.2% 3 575 15.8% 0 764 21.0% 0
Osaka 13,410 54.8% 2 8,062 33.0% 1 2,992 12.2% 0
Saga 2,442 43.1% 2 2,312 40.8% 1 909 16.1% 0
Saitama[c] 12,508 61.2% 3 6,412 31.4% 0 1,510 7.4% 0
Shiga 3,421 50.2% 2 2,464 36.1% 1 935 13.7% 0
Shimane 3,391 38,9% 1 4,906 56.3% 2 422 4.8% 0
Shizuoka 8,772 46.6% 2 5,750 30.5% 1 4,308 22.9% 0
Tochigi 7,359 59.3% 2 4,363 35.2% 1 685 5.5% 0
Tokushima 3,506 50.7% 2 3,226 46.7% 1 177 2.6% 0
Tokyo[c] 44,579 64.1% 3 18,808 27.0% 0 6,161 8.9% 0
Tottori 371 4.6% 0 7,683 94.7% 3 54 0.7% 0
Toyama 7,468 38.3% 1 8,711 44.7% 2 3,307 17.0% 0
Wakayama[c] 9,863 82.6% 3 1,836 15.4% 0 235 2.0% 0
Yamagata 2,619 36.7% 1 2,188 30.7% 1 2,326 32.6% 1
Yamaguchi[c] 9,505 69.5% 3 2,006 14.7% 0 2,157 15.8% 0
Yamanashi 3,215 31,7% 1 1,882 18.6% 0 5,031 49.7% 2
Total 367,164 54.3% 89 216,597 32.1% 42 91,858 13.6% 10
  1. ↑ Koichi Yamamoto withdrew from competition, taking into consideration the impact of COVID-19.
  2. ↑ Akita didn't hold a primary election and voted for Suga, who was born in the prefecture.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Winner take all delegates.
  4. ↑ 1st place: 2 delegates, 2nd place: 1 delegate.

References

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  1. 1 2 3 "Japan's Shinzo Abe steps down as PM due to health concerns". The Asahi Shimbun. 31 August 2020. Archived from the original on 1 September 2020. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  2. 1 2 3 "Shinzo Abe: Japan's PM resigns for health reasons". BBC News. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  3. 1 2 3 "Japan's PM Shinzo Abe resigns because of ill-health". Al Jazeera. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  4. 1 2 3 "Japan's Shinzo Abe steps down as PM due to health concerns". National Post. 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  5. ↑ Sugiyama, Satoshi (14 September 2020). "Yoshihide Suga set to become Japan's prime minister after winning LDP election". The Japan Times. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 14 September 2020.
  6. ↑ "Shinzo Abe hospital visit stokes speculation over successor". Financial Times. 18 August 2020. Archived from the original on 21 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  7. ↑ "Japan's Shinzo Abe back to hospital over health worries". Euronews. 24 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  8. ↑ "Japan's Leader Is Leaving. Here's How It Might Pick a New One". The New York Times. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 28 August 2020. Retrieved 28 August 2020.
  9. ↑ "Race to succeed Abe kicks off with no clear favorite". 29 August 2020. Archived from the original on 29 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  10. ↑ "Japan set for new PM in weeks as Shinzo Abe's party plans speedy vote". Financial Times. 30 August 2020. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 31 August 2020.
  11. ↑ "In race to replace Japan's Abe, loyalist Suga emerges as strong contender". Reuters. 29 August 2020. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Suga front-runner in Japan's LDP race as grassroots members excluded from vote". Mainichi Daily News. 1 September 2020. Archived from the original on 1 September 2020. Retrieved 1 September 2020.
  13. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Yoshihide Suga launches bid to become Japan's next prime minister". Al Jazeera. 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 2 September 2020. Retrieved 2 September 2020.
  14. 1 2 3 "Japan's LDP Leadership Race Candidates to Hold Public Debates on September 9, 12". The New York Times. 3 September 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 5 September 2020.
  15. ↑ "Japan's Kishida Says Can Show Strength in Economic, Foreign Policy Fields". The New York Times. 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 4 September 2020.
  16. ↑ "Japan PM Abe resigns due to illness with many issues unresolved". Kyodo News. 28 August 2020. Archived from the original on 29 August 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2020.
  17. ↑ Kajimoto, Tetsushi; (ed..) Mallard, William (30 August 2020). "Japan's Koizumi won't seek to succeed Abe as PM, would back Kono: NHK". Reuters. Archived from the original on 30 August 2020. Retrieved 30 August 2020.
  18. ↑ "Japan gov't spokesman Suga gains support of major faction in replacing Abe". Mainichi Daily News. 31 August 2020. Archived from the original on 14 September 2020. Retrieved 1 September 2020.
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "総裁選、竹下派が菅氏を支持 茂木外相の立候補は見送り". Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 2 September 2020. Archived from the original on 11 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "菅氏優勢、5派閥が支持 自民党総裁選". Nihon Keizai Shimbun (in Japanese). 3 September 2020. Archived from the original on 4 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mulgan, Aurelia George (6 September 2020). "Suga's a sure bet in Japan's leadership election". East Asia Forum. Archived from the original on 7 September 2020. Retrieved 12 September 2020.
  22. 1 2 3 早わかり！ 自民党総裁選２０２０ [Quick Guide to the 2020 Liberal Democratic Party Presidential Election]. Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 19 September 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2026.
  23. 1 2 沖縄県連が菅氏に3票　中川会長ら「基地負担軽減の取り組みに期待」 [Okinawa Prefectural Federation casts 3 votes for Suga; Chairman Nakagawa and others express "hope for efforts to reduce the burden of military bases."]. Ryūkyū Shimpō (in Japanese). 13 September 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2026.
  24. ↑ [ 総裁選 ] 予備選挙の開票結果 [[Presidential Election] Results of the Primary Election]. Liberal Democratic Party of Okinawa (in Japanese). 13 September 2020. Retrieved 16 May 2026.
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