Updated A Look at a Random Hodgepodge of stonks

Everyday in Chat I suggest the AI/Semi trade won’t bottom until we all (i’m guilty of this as well) stop asking about them. We also discussed the similarities between the Archigo hedge fund blow up in 2021, and SALP blow up last week, suggesting that the bottom is likely in (doesn’t mean we go back up though…first we’re looking for a retest, higher lows, or breakouts above DT’s.

While I wait, thought we could take a look at a bunch of random stuff….

This is a look at FXI C&H as shown using our newest Stage Analysis tool to give you a quick look at what’s working and what’s not working…By default this one looks at all the S&P subsectors, as well as world indexes.

You can easily go into the settings and drill down, to see what is working and not working within specific thematics …You can get the source code for this screener in the article ‘Stage Analysis’

BRK.B Was surprised how well this has held up given their enormous cash hoard. I would have thought Wall St would punish them for missing out on one of the greatest bulls ever

8/15 Update - broke out of channel and challenged earlier ATH’s and got rejected, all important now to make certain this doesn't become a double top. UTL, then dashed lines bellow all important for bulls.

ORCL ya,ya I know it’s an AI/Semi play but I haven’t been in this one, nor talked about it ever….I did point out a few weeks ago that we have NEVER spent more than a month below the 233MA ever with the exception of the dot.com crash. This double bottom is an exceptional entry IMO, using that as a stop.

8/15 Update as with most other stocks and indexes this weeks candles were representative of the summer doldrums. That tall wick is buyer exhaustion, and with most of Wall St in the Hamptons, we’re just not going to see the follow through moves we’re used to yet…doesn’t mean that things sell down hard, just that there’s not a lot of ommpf to go higher yet.

WMT for you bottom feeders, we likely hold the channel (has thus far), and again, this would represent both a good entry/stop for a quality stonk

8/15 Update - Still holding, but would feel better about this not just being a bear flag building out if we could reclaim dashed line at top of candle.

LLY Just to highlight what we’ve been teaching - When a large TAM market leader is down 20-40% it usually is a great opportunity in hindsight ….This is why we give you all these charts, with all these levels - So you know in advance where you might want to DCA

8/15 Update - note all the recent tall wicks (buyer exhaustion). We likely keep stair stepping lower as we continue to build out this flag

SNOW through the eyes of Stage Analysis

8/15 Update - fugly toppy looking weekly candle, bulls want this to be the start of a flag …time will tell

DDOG Just to show what it’s done since Stage transitioned

8/15 The Stage analysis tool is excellent to quickly locate if a stock has broken down and should be (potentially) paired back, or just a normal 20% drawdown.

NET Since Stage 2

8/15 Update - Blue Skys’

CRWD Since Stage 2

PANW Since Stage 2

8/15 Update - Blue Skys’

DBC (Commodities fund)

8/15 Update - breaking out

DWAS (Small cap momo) broke out

SPSV (Small cap value)…*hint* a place to be…

8/15 (still a place to be)

SOXS (3X bear) ←——*hint* -don’t be this guy - these things are a cancer, and you will NEVER make money with them

MA Just another example of quality large TAM leader down 20%….

8/15 Update (example of why we suggest large TAM leaders down 20-40% can be an opportunity in hindsight)…C&H look here

CLOU VS SMH (Software VS Semi)…Still has room to outperform

8/15 Update (See note on chart)

EOSE example of an earlier AnnualizeThis pick that almost got there (up 900%), we exited all the way down and exited completely at 6 as management did not deliver..Could it still work in the future? maybe….but i’d rather buy it back at higher prices (after management executed), than ride it to zero …make sense?

PCT This IS a current AnnualizeThis pick that I don’t currently own, as the stock remains a complete hot mess. Management IS executing however, and this band I drew at VPOC is likely a great ‘value’ entry point to start a position

MRLN which does autonomous flight Similar to PCT qualifies as an AnnualizeThis value entry, however waiting to confirm that the bottom is in before I enter….stocks that make new lows, make new lows till they don’t

8/15 Update took a placeholder position, but disappointing hat we lost the UTL. Need to see the double bottom, and to know it is durable

Gold chart with SMH overlayed…I suggested back on June 9th that SMH would likely suffer the same fate as gold, as they were like 5 sigma as gold was back in January….note gold is STILL in a downtrend 7 months later…why I think SEMI’s might be dead money/muted for a while (hope im wrong)

HYD - High yield….Important one that I watch - since a key to the data center buildout is debt…..Watch these 2 UTL’s - they are important

NKY (Nikkei) Since I dont invest there, I was surprised to see that the index was down 17% at one point….bear flagging here, and since we will be hearing more and more about the BoJ, currency intervention, and their bond market, this along with the USDJPY is something to keep a close eye on. There is still a yen carry trade that likely supports much of our bull market - am just not sure what would actually unwind that - so I watch, and try to listen to smart people

8/15 Update bear flag negated