[ Thematics are updated weekly, make certain to check the date above to ensure you are looking at current actionable charts]
Tickers;
SSNLF, MU, HXSCL, SNDK, STX, WDC, DELL, ATEYY, KIOXF, HPE, P, 6762.T, NTAP, SMCI, NNYAF, PHSNF, RMBS, NTNX, MXICF, WBELF, SIMO, PENG, MRAM, GSIT, QMCO, QBAK
005930 SSNLF (Samsung Electronics) (Daily chart showed for more detail)….We lost the channel we’ve been riding since last year, and the same way that leaving a channel to the upside allows for a parabolic move - a downside loss can turn into a flush. Expectation for me is that we will attempt to reclaim the channel, at which point we will be successful, or learn that this is just a dead cat bounce. Since I personally don’t currently have an edge, I will be more cautious in any new ‘adds’ or buys in the AI complex until I have more clarity
8/16 Update -durable bottom is in, and we reclaimed DTL (even drawn conservatively off the wick highs) - dashed lines are my guide
MU (Micron Technology) — I still think the entire semi complex is over-owned, and is likely to have a further drawdown before new highs. For MU only a candle close above the top dashed line negates that for me. A more likely scenario is the UTL below which is approximately 16% from the ATH’s, and if lost the next UTL below, approximately a 30% drawdown from ATH’s (depending on when it would hit the line).
7/4 update - Similar thoughts as Samsung….Would prefer us to visit that UTL below though, as it would give us the 30% normally needed to keep a longer term uptrend healthy…open mind
8/16 Update - durable bottom is in, and walking up the UTL below till we don’t-dashed line above bulls next challenge
SKHY HXSCL (SK Hynix) — Down almost 30% after tapping the rising 55MA and reclaiming UTL likely a great entry point to nibble with their US listing upcoming (I’m not allowed to own this one).
8/16 Update - Now showing SKHY since it IPO’d
SNDK (SanDisk) — Those horizontal lines are just to show earlier bottom on 20%+ drawdowns we have had earlier (note that parabolic stocks can have lots of these, and they tend to be in the rearview mirror not too long after….Not good that we lose the UTL, but with that rising 55MA coming up from below, even if we don’t reclaim trend short term, I think we will have looked back at these as great opportunities six months from now. The fundamental backdrop for AI has not changed. There is a lot of banter about stealth start-ups having architecture/optimization breakthroughs that could cut memory need by 10X….something to keep an eye on, but not a threat today IMO
8/16 Update - downtrend negated, and new uptrend has begun
STX (Seagate Technology) — 30% drawdown into the 55MA
8/16 Update - Inverse C&H breakout -
WDC (Western Digital) — I have all the information on these charts to know where I want to add, buy, pair back, or sell. If any of these charts don’t ‘speak’ to you, please DO ask in Chat, I am happy to go over any charts you might not understand.
8/16 Update - Attempting to reclaim lost UTL/DTL convergence bulls 1st challenge
DELL (Dell Technologies) - holding up better than most, and as of now looks like a healthy flag/consolidation - note that it is approximately 20% from top to bottom of the flag
8/16 Update - Leaders lead
ATEYY (Advantest) — Down around 20% from ATH’s, and making higher lows - only if we lost the recent low would it put bottom of channel in play (another 10ish%)
8/16 update - Leaders lead
KIAXY (Kioxia Holdings) — Bought some Friday, but have room if we lose UTL - would look to add on 55MA lower UTL confluence.
8/16 Update - bear flaggy looking, close > dashed line needed to negate that look
HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) — down 36% from highs - inflection point (setup)
8/16 Bottomed exactly where it needed to - Leaders lead
P (EverPure) — Currently has a bear flaggy look about it, needs to reclaim DTL above
8/16 Update - Solid move leaving a multi year channel
6762.T (TDK Corp) — Looks like a healthy flag (15% from top to bottom of channel)
8/16 Update (We lost the earlier flag and had a ‘from failed moves come fast moves’ - new flag breakout bulls challenge
NTAP (NetApp) — down 20% from that ATH topping candle, but still looks sexy to me at the moment
8/16 Sexy it was….blue skys’
SMCI (Super Micro Computer) - (Commentary, chart and another dozen stocks below paywall. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber. You get 100% access to hundreds of charts weekly. Full access to the big picture look at all the indexes. Access to Chat where I am happy to offer any charts, or answer questions you might have about a stock you own.
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