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Numbers & Nonsense · Oct 24, 2024

10 Storylines for NFL Week 8: Let's Fast Forward to 300 Takeout Coffees Later

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Every game on the schedule begs the question: "Is It Over Now?"

Has there ever been an NFL schedule as boring as Week 8? Even as perhaps the world’s biggest Marcus Mariota fan, I can’t help but be bummed that Jayden Daniels seems like he’ll miss what should’ve been a showdown of the last two Heisman winners. Bears-Commanders remains my favorite game almost by default, but it’s gone from “are we there yet” to “Is It Over Now”?

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1. “Is It Over Now?” (Heisman Matchup Streak’s Version) — Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Commanders (5-2)

First of all, sorry to Jayden Daniels because clearly I jinxed the shit out of him when I went in on the whole Heisman streak thing last week and didn’t include an “unless Jayden Daniels gets hurt” disclaimer* — but thankfully Captain Duck Marcus Mariota is around to keep the Heisman matchup streak alive against Caleb Williams!

  • ASSUMING NO ONE GETS HURT, we’ll get three more weeks of Heisman matchups to bring the streak to nine weeks in a row before it ends in Week 12: Williams vs Kyler Murray next week, Joe Burrow-Lamar Jackson in Week 10, and either Daniels or Mariota against the Eagles’ DeVonta Smith in Week 11.

  • *Disclaimer (2024): somehow Apple brought together Alfonso Cuaron, Cate Blanchett, Sacha Baron Cohen and Kevin Kline to make a thriller presented in the most self-indulgent manner imaginable in which absolutely nothing happens and I despise every single character. I hate it with every fiber of my being and I can’t wait for the next two episodes to drop.

Since I must do all the disclaimers now and a tie honestly feels like it’d be on-brand for the Bears and Commies: barring a tie, someone is going to win this game!

  • If it’s the Bears, they’ll have their best seven-game start (5-2) since also being 5-2 in 2020. If you want an optimistic corollary, that was the last time the Bears went to the Playoffs! If you want one that’s probably more realistic, they went 3-6 the rest of that season and went to the Playoffs while finishing 8-8.

  • If it’s the Commanders, they’ll be 6-2 through eight games for the first time since 2008. Incredibly, they also finished that season 8-8 and unlike the 2020 Bears, missed the Playoffs, because this is just that kind of week. Either way, Washington may have already screwed the whole season up because it was under .500 through eight games the last three times it made the playoffs (3-5 in 2012 and 2015, 2-6 in 2020).

    • Somewhat incredibly, their last three starts of 6-2 or better dating to 1996 all resulted in missed Playoffs. Only 12.3% (24 of 195) of teams to start 6-2 in that span missed the Playoffs, the same number which won the Super Bowl.

2. “Is It Over Now?” (Mahomes Being Mid And/Or KC Being Undefeated’s Version) — Kansas City Chiefs (6-0) (at Raiders)

Perhaps, with DeAndre Hopkins expected to make his Chiefs debut Sunday, I can finally retire the Patrick Mahomes slump notes next week? There’s an objective bar to clear: the slump splits will continue until Mahomes posts a 100+ QB rating. Then I’ll start doing notes on the nuclear hot streak I anticipate him going on and juxtaposing the slump. But here I am telling secrets to the one guy you’re not supposed to tell your secrets to (the entire internet).

  • Hopkins is the NFL leader in regular season catches (943) and receiving yards (12,528) since entering the league in 2013. The player with the second-most catches (935) and third-most yards (11,573) in the NFL in that span is a)his new teammate and b)goes home to Taylor Swift. If I hear one more word about Mahomes’ weapons, I’m gonna start breaking things.

  • I genuinely believe Mahomes is the best football player I’ve ever seen. He also had a career-low QB rating last week (44.4), extending his career-long streak of games under a 90 QB rating to five. If he’s under 90 again this week, it’ll double his previous career-long streak. Please, Patrick, let me look up stuff about how good you are again?

BTW the Chiefs are the NFL’s final unbeaten team. I’m not doing scoring margin notes this week because they’ve won their last two by double-digits (barely).

  • The Chiefs are trying to reach 7-0 for just the third time in franchise history and the first time with Mahomes under center. They made it to 9-0 in 2003 en route to a 13-3 finish and again in 2013 before going 2-5 the rest of the way and finishing in second. Both seasons ended in their first Playoff game against the Colts.

3. “Is It Over Now?” (AFC South’s Version) — Indianapolis Colts (4-3) at Houston Texans (5-2)

The Texans are coming off a pretty disappointing loss to the Packers in which they let C.J. Stroud don the ill-advised early Halloween costume of “punching bag,” but a Houston win this week would give it a sweep and functionally a three-game lead over the only other team in the AFC South even sniffing .500 or Playoff contention. A Colts win, on the other hand, would have the teams tied in both the standings and the series.

  • There are enough potential losses on the schedule that it’s not quite fair to say the Texans will have the South locked up with a win — they still play arguably the NFL’s top three teams in the Lions, Chiefs and Ravens, and shouts to the schedule makers for that fact!

  • The Colts also still have the Vikings, Bills and Lions, but their schedule doesn’t look quite as daunting as the Texans’ in the second half of the season. Their final five games — at Patriots, at Broncos, vs Titans, at Giants, vs Jaguars — would appear to give Indy a chance to surge through the finish line.

C.J. Stroud has certainly been the more productive, lauded and successful of the second-year quarterbacks on display in this matchup, but Week 8 would be as good a time as any for Anthony Richardson to author the signature moment of his young career and reignite his team’s season.

  • Stroud’s trying to bounce back from a career-low 86 passing yards in last week’s loss at Lambeau Field in which he went just 10-for-21 and had a 58.8 QB rating, the second-lowest of his career. It was also the first time he didn’t throw a touchdown this season and just the fourth time in 22 regular season starts. He’s thrown for at least 230 yards in all three career games against the Colts with six touchdowns and no interceptions in those three games though he has been sacked 12 times.

  • Richardson made his return from injury in last week’s win over the Dolphins, but certainly looked like a player who’d missed a few weeks as he went 10-for-24 for a career-low 41.7% — a low bar given his 53.5% career completion rate in his first nine appearances. He had one of his better games in the opener against the Texans, matching his high with two touchdowns and throwing for his second-most yards (212) in an NFL game. His 101.2 QB rating in Week 1 was also a career-high for any game with a least five pass attempts.

4. “Is It Over Now?” (Bills “Losing Streak” In Seattle’s Version) — Buffalo Bills (5-2) at Seattle Seahawks (4-3)

Buffalo’s got a chance to create even more breathing room in the AFC East next week against the Dolphins, then won’t see the division again until Week 16. But first, Josh Allen travels even further west than his old college stomping grounds in Laradise.

  • The Bills are looking to snap a skid in Seattle which dates back 20 years! They’ve lost their last one visits there by a 31-25 combined margin in 2016 and no other years since a 38-9 win in November 2004. Buffalo is 3-9 in the Pacific Northwest all-time, but 2-1 since the turn of the century (also won in Seattle in 2000) after going 1-5 from 1977-1999.

  • The Bills only losses thus far came on the road in Baltimore and Houston, which is hard to hold against them given the opponents. Still, with their only road wins coming in Miami and “New York,” the Bills will look for their first roadie outside the AFC East. They’ll have three more of them the rest of the way (at Colts, Rams and Lions) as well as the Chiefs and 49ers in western New York as they look to maintain their AFC East lead.

Seattle snapped a three-game losing streak last week, keeping first-time head coach Mike MacDonald from experiencing his first week with a losing record until at least after Halloween.

  • The Seahawks improved to 4-0 this season when holding their opponents to 20 points or fewer in last week’s win after allowing the Lions, Giants and 49ers to score at least 29 points each during a three-game skid. They’ve also allowed 152.8 passing yards in their wins (214 last week) compared to 257.7 in their losses (at least 245 in all three), so clearly all they have to do this week is keep Josh Allen in check. NBD?

5. “Is It Over Now?” (Ravens and Lions Looking Unbeatable’s Version) — Baltimore Ravens (5-2; at Browns) and Detroit Lions (5-1; vs Titans)

The Ravens and Lions are, in my estimation, playing the best football in the NFL right now with all due respect to the Chiefs’ perfect record. The Browns and Titans are playing some of the NFL’s worst football. There’s no reason to spend much time digging here.

  • The Ravens have scored at least 28 points in each of their five straight wins (and at least 30 in each of their last four). No team has had a win streak longer than five while scoring at least 28 in each game since the Super Bowl LII champion 2017 Eagles had a seven-game run.

  • The Lions have won four in a row and scored 120 points over their last three games, their most points in any three-game span since Barry Sanders’ MVP season in 1997 (125 in a three-game span culminating on Thanksgiving). It’s just the second time in the Super Bowl era and fifth time in franchise history they’ve had at least 120 points in a three-game span (including two which overlap during the 1952-53 seasons).

6. “Is It Over Now?” (Doug Pederson’s Version)Magdalena Green Bay Packers (5-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Green Bay will look to add oxygen to the fire still burning under former Packer Doug Pederson’s seat as the Jaguars return from splitting a pair in London.

  • Green Bay has won three straight since losing to the Vikings in Jordan Love’s return from the ankle sprain he suffered against the Eagles in Brazil. Love’s thrown an INT in all five games he’s appeared in this season, leading the NFL with 8 picks despite missing two games. He also leads the NFL with an 8.4% pass TD rate and has thrown 15 touchdowns in five games to give him an NFL-best 47 passing touchdowns since the start of last season.

I really don’t want to harp too much on Doug Pederson’s job security (20-21 as Jags head coach and 3-10 since last December) because it stinks that he’s probably gonna get fired sooner or later, but his team is gonna have to get seriously hot to cool off his seat as it embarks on a run of five straight against teams currently with winning records.

  • After this one the Jags go to Philly, then host the Vikings, go to Detroit and finally host the Texans. It’s gonna take at least one upset for Doug to avoid being 3-15 over the span of a calendar year at the end of this stretch.

7. “Is It Over Now?” (Sam Darnold’s Version) — Minnesota Vikings (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-4) (Thursday)

The Vikings will look to avoid losing a second straight game after starting 5-0 while also hoping that Sam Darnold isn’t about to turn back into a pumpkin just in time for Halloween.

  • Darnold wasn’t all bad in last week’s 31-29 loss to the Lions by any means, but has certainly cooled off in October after a scorching hot September. Negative plays have always been a part of the story for Sam, but what stood out most during his scorching September was a spike in the positive ones and specifically in his touchdown percentage — he sadly appears to be regressing to the mean in that department.

8. “Is It Over Now?” (Donovan McNabb’s Version) — Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-4)

I really didn’t want to make the “Donovan McNabb doesn’t know about ties” joke as an Eagles fan who mostly enjoyed Donovan’s playing career (certainly not one of his haters). Unfortunately for me, specifically, I worked myself into a corner with the “Is It Over Now?” gag.

Anyway, both of these teams are looking to keep things moving in the right direction after both beat the Giants and Browns their last two times out. I still don’t really have a handle on how good either team is (they both beat the Giants and Browns their last two times out), but I do know the Bengals haven’t dug out of their 1-4 hole enough yet to be able to afford losses.

  • I also know both of these offenses are capable of being exquisite on any given day, and that is always fun. Come see A.J. Brown and Ja’Marr Chase defy the laws of physics, they do it all the damn time!

  • Another thing I know these quarterbacks are also capable of being completely inept. Maybe Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts will make inexplicable decisions because they no longer respect the laws of physics!

  • I’m probably underplaying just how watchable this game is because I overcompensate for my homerdom by burying the Eagles. But I also refuse to be impressed by beating up on the Browns and Giants, and that applies to BOTH teams in this instance.

9. “Is It Over Now?” (Me Being Bojeweled’s Version) — Denver Broncos (4-3, vs Panthers)

I honestly wasn’t gonna include the Broncos this week, but then I was reminded of the very important fact that beloved Duck Bo Nix leads the league in both Uncrustables and making the whole place shimmer, so as always you best believe I’m still Bojeweled.

  • Bo didn’t throw a touchdown last Thursday night, but he also didn’t throw an interception and the Broncos improved to 4-0 this season when he doesn’t do that while winning for the fourth time in five games overall. He’s thrown five touchdowns and run for another while throwing just one INT in this 4-1 stretch.

10. “Is It Over Now?” (Schadenfreude’s Version) — Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4)

I have absolutely no desire to spend even 20 seconds looking into either of these teams, so I’m not gonna. Fuck ‘em both. It’s thrilling that one of them is gonna lose this week and I’ll always take an opportunity to share a periodic reminder that “Schadenfreude” from Avenue Q is the best song in the musical theater canon, though.

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