This is probably gonna be another week of “they killed the regular season” bullshit as people look at Ohio State and Penn State, realize they’re likely to both make the Playoff regardless of who wins this week’s game. No matter what anyone says (including whichever fan base immediately shifts to coping), the game is gonna mean a whole hell of a lot to the winner. If it’s Penn State, they’ll probably make like Tennessee or Vandy and end the night by breaking their favorite toys.
Penn State head coach James Franklin seems highly likely to take the Nittany Lions to the Playoff for the first time regardless of the outcome of this game — which is why I believe they’re the biggest beneficiaries of the 12-team Playoff. But if Franklin or any Penn State fan tells you they aren’t desperate for this win, they’re lying.
Franklin is 1-9 against Ohio State as Penn State head coach including seven straight losses. Almost all of that history overlaps with his 1-12 record against AP Top 5 opponents, with 10 straight losses in those games (including the last six meetings with OSU). Both of those streaks date back to…
Penn State’s last win over OSU and Franklin’s only AP Top 5 win as Penn State head coach came by a 24-21 margin at home in October 2016 over #2 Ohio State. PSU scored 17 points in the 4th quarter capped off by a blocked FG return in the final five minutes and handed the Buckeyes their only loss that season before falling to Clemson in the CFP Semifinal.
Even with PSU’s last win over OSU, 2016 is a perfect example of why Franklin must love the 12-team Playoff — those Nittany Lions won the Big Ten but had lost to Pitt and Michigan early in the season and missed the Playoff ranked #5. This year they’d have a first round bye while those Buckeyes would’ve been seeded no higher than #5.
In addition to that automatic berth in 2016, PSU would have likely made a 12-team Playoff as an At Large in 2017 (#9 in final CFP rankings), 2018 (#12), 2019 (#10), 2022 (#11) and last year (#10) and James Franklin might be approaching his seventh Playoff appearance in an 11-year tenure instead of his first.
Ryan Day and Ohio State could also be beneficiaries of the new Playoff system if Penn State gets over the hump. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid losing multiple regular season games for only the third time in the last 13 seasons and haven’t lost more than twice in a regular season since 2011, largely why they’re third with 5 Playoff appearances. My guess is it would take a third loss to send this OSU team to a non-Playoff Bowl.
Just in case anyone forgot, OSU’s first loss this season came at Oregon in its first road Top 5 matchup of the season. They’re the second team that’s played two road Top 5 matchups this season along with Georgia, which lost at Alabama and won at Texas. Before the ‘Dawgs, no team had two such games in a season since 1996 Florida.
OSU has Purdue at home next week, its road finale at Northwestern the following week, and then Indiana and Michigan in Columbus to end the season. With all due respect to my beloved Hoosiers, the Buckeyes will be significant favorites in all of those games.
Ryan Day is 62-9 as OSU head coach (59-9 as full-time coach), but he and OSU fans would also be lying if they said they weren’t desperate for him to win this game. Day’s 2-6 against AP Top 5 opponents as OSU head coach including 0-2 against Michigan, 1-3 in the CFP and losses in four straight.
One of the fun things about throwing together giant conferences on the fly without divisions is that some of these conference championship races could get very messy as teams (don’t) play each other, something the ACC is learning quickly with four teams heading into November perfect in conference. An SMU win this week would put the league on a fast track to having to leave someone out of the Championship game after an unbeaten conference season.
SMU (a 7.5-point favorite as of Sunday) has next week off followed by Boston College at home, a road trip to Virginia and Cal at home to finish the season. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives SMU at least a 70% chance in all four games with this week’s 70.1% chance the smallest of the four.
A Pitt win would guarantee the ACC has no more than two unbeaten teams in conference as the Panthers still have a date with Clemson. This game and that one are it as far as head-to-head matchups this season amongst the teams which look like they’ll take the top four spots in the ACC.
It would also be Pitt’s first win over SMU since 1942! Their only meetings in the last 75 years were a pair of SMU Bowl wins (Cotton capping 1982 season, BBVA Compass capping 2011) and SMU also won the last regular season game in 1948.
SMU QB Kevin Jennings committed five turnovers (three interceptions and two lost fumbles) in last week’s win over Duke.
The last of Jennings’ quintet of giveaways set up Duke for a 30-yard FG attempt which SMU blocked as regulation ended. The Mustangs then had to survive a Duke two-point conversion attempt in OT before holding on for the 28-27 win.
SMU’s win last week was its program-record 13th straight conference win dating back to last year in the American and its ninth straight road win, tied for the longest active streak in the FBS.
Despite all the miscues Jennings did manage to avoid taking a sack last week, and has done so in six of eight games this season. If he can manage to avoid turning it over a handful of times, his ability to negate pressure with his legs bodes well against Pitt (see below).
Speaking of turnovers, Pitt took three Kyle McCord passes to the house for pick-6’s in the first half of last week’s 41-13 win, two of them before the Panthers offense had even gotten into the end zone. The 7-0 start matched senior year Dan Marino’s 1982 Panthers — this week Pitt looks to reach 8-0 for the first time since junior year Marino’s 1981 Panthers started 10-0.
Redshirt freshman Pitt QB Eli Holstein doesn’t seem to be getting a ton of attention, but he’s having a fantastic first season as starter. Last week’s win over Cuse was his sixth time accounting for multiple TD in seven games (he threw exactly three TD in each of the first five), his fourth time completing at least two thirds of his passes, and his seventh straight game without a lost fumble to start his Pitt career (also his third turnover-free game overall).
In addition to the pick-6’s, Pitt racked up four sacks in the win over Syracuse — the Panthers are now 38-7 under Pat Narduzzi when they have at least four sacks in a game compared to 34-43 when they have fewer than four sacks. Their 3.14 sacks/game are 11th-most in the FBS this season and third-most in the ACC.
Just a few more days of political ads! But before the election, a couple of teams from states whose electoral college outcomes are foregone conclusions put their unbeaten seasons on the line in one of the nation’s foremost electoral battlegrounds.
First up, Indiana looks to make me a prophetic dreamer and reach 9-0 for the first time in program history.
I told you Indiana would be here way back in the final Storyline of Week 4, and even losing star QB Kurtis Rourke wasn’t enough to stop IU from matching the 1967 team’s program-best start at 8-0. Tayven Jackson, younger brother of former IU basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis, showed why he was a four-star recruit when he originally signed with Tennessee in 2022 and is now the second member of his family to become a legend in Bloomington after both throwing and running for a TD in last week’s 31-17 win over Washington with Rourke sidelined.
Michigan State owns a dominant 50-18-2 (.729) edge in the series with IU, but the Hoosiers have won their last two trips to East Lansing (their only wins in the last seven meetings and two of just three in the series since 2006) after losing their previous eight visits. If Indiana is going to continue making program history, it’ll have to follow up a win over Sparty with one over Michigan (.861 win pct vs IU) and then potentially one against Ohio State (.849).
My Ducks look to improve to 8-1 all-time as the #1 team in the AP Poll after avoiding a second straight one-and-done stint at the top in their first since 2012. Oregon improved to 3-1 against ranked teams as #1 last week in their 38-9 rout of Illinois and are 4-0 against unranked teams as #1 heading into Ann Arbor this week.
Newly-anointed Heisman favorite Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel won’t take any more steps up in the FBS career record books for a minute after moving into second all-time with 143 career passing TD and 17,236 passing yards last week. He needs 12 more touchdowns and almost 2,000 more yards to break Case Keenum’s FBS records of 155 and 19,217 respectively.
Oregon’s 2-0 against Michigan this century, winning on each team’s home field in 2003 in Eugene (31-27) and 2007 in Ann Arbor (39-7). Prior to 2003, the teams hadn’t played since 1973 and Michigan was 3-0 against Oregon all-time, all in Ann Arbor and all shutouts (14-0 in 1948, 21-0 in 1960 and 24-0 in 1973).
Oregon’s defense has moved into the FBS top 10 allowing just 15.6 points per game, with Illinois becoming the fifth opponent to score 14 points or fewer in the season’s first seven games.
Nothing against Conner Weigman, but I think I speak for just about every college football fan when I beg the Aggies and head coach Mike Elko to resist the urge to try and be like Texas and just start the quarterback who makes your offense better. It’s just as clear in who it is in A&M’s case (Marcel Reed) as it is in Texas’ (I’ll save that rant for next week).
I resisted the urge to go too hard on the Weigman-Reed thing last week because, while there were some obvious signs the A&M offense ran better with Reed, there was also a discernible difference in competition — Weigman had faced Notre Dame, Missouri and Mississippi State while Reed faced Florida, Bowling Green and Arkansas. It’s a lot harder to deny the difference after watching both quarterbacks play against LSU.
A&M lost its last visit to Columbia two years ago, its only loss to South Carolina in 10 meetings both all-time and as SEC rivals.
My all-time favorite Gamecock is having a much better week than the first time Texas A&M visited Columbia and the first time these programs met overall — when August 2014 Heisman winner “Kenny Trill” and the Aggies memorably dumped 52 points on an SC team which entered that season ranked #9.
The division is no more, but the spirit of the SEC East lives on as both Georgia and Tennessee look to stay among the ranks of the one-loss against ancient rivals. One of them will definitely take another loss when they face off in two weeks, but whether it’s their second or third loss of the season could be the difference between making the Playoff and not.
Georgia is a 16.5-point favorite as of Sunday for its annual J-Town shitshow against Florida. It’s the fourth straight season the ‘Dawgs are favored by at least two touchdowns over Florida and they’ll also look for a fourth straight win, something neither team has achieved in the series since 2003 (Florida’s sixth straight win) and Georgia hasn’t achieved since 1983 (the end of a six-game streak of its own.
There’s only been one one-possession game (24-17 UGA in 2019) and one upset (Florida +2.5 in a 44-28 win in 2020) in nine meetings since the last time either team lost as more than a touchdown favorite in the series, a 38-20 Florida win in 2014 when Georgia was favored by 11.5 points. That was the only time either team has lost as more than a touchdown favorite in the series since 2006 (as far back as Covers.com has spreads).
Georgia is coming off a bye after reminding everyone it’s definitely still Georgia in a 30-15 win at then-#1 Texas. They’re the first team to beat AP #1 on the road since Stanford did it in 2012, the first ones to beat AP #1 by at least two touchdowns on the road since Notre Dame did it at Pitt in 1982, and the only the fifth team ever to beat AP #1 at least 15 points on the road. It took all this time, but Kirby Smart’s Georgia can FINALLY be mentioned in the same breath as Ank Scanlan’s 1942 Holy Cross Crusaders.
Tennessee’s favored by almost as much as Georgia for its meeting with Kentucky in Knoxville. The Vols are looking for their fourth straight win over Kentucky, though it wouldn’t be a particularly notable streak in a series they lead 84-26-9 dating back to 1893 (including all on-field results because vacated games are stupid).
Kentucky won in both 2017 and most recently in 2020, the shortest span it’s had between two wins in the series since 1981-84. UK’s last win in the series did come in Knoxville, but it was in 2020, so not in a full Neyland Stadium. That’s their only win at Tennessee in their last 19 visits.
Like Georgia, Tennessee had Week 9 off after holding off Alabama 24-17 in Week 8 to avoid a second loss in three games (and send the Tide to that same fate). The Vols have held all seven of their opponents under 20 points, the only FBS team that’s done so this season. They’re the first SEC team to do it since Georgia in 2021 and every SEC team which has done it this century has something pretty notable in common.
That scenario I mentioned earlier which ends with the ACC leaving a team without a conference loss out of the Championship game requires nothing more than three teams (SMU, Miami and Clemson) winning a bunch of games they’ll be favored in. The two highest-ranked are both favored by double-digits at home this week despite facing opponents with winning records.
Miami (-20 vs Duke) is 8-0 for the first time since 2017 and is likely to be a double-digit favorite in every game until the ACC Championship. The ‘Canes biggest obstacles between here and starting 12-0 for the first time since the legendary 2002 team are cliches like complacency, themselves and Mario Cristobal. Actually, that last one isn’t a cliche, he’s probably the most likely thing to actually cost them a game (Oregon fan here, I’ve lived it).
Clemson (-11.5 vs Louisville) has won eight straight at home since losing to FSU last year and and 10 of 11 since losing to South Carolina in 2022 — its only home loss to an unranked visitor in the last eight seasons. The Tigers have won six straight games overall since losing the opener to Georgia, all by at least 16 points while scoring at least 40 points in five of the six.
I did a dive in September into the chances Cam Ward would take home the Heisman after emerging as the early favorite and determined the odds weren’t great (same Week 4 link as Indiana above, Storyline #11), so let me give him some credit for having staying power despite currently being second to Dillon Gabriel.
Ward actually has Gabriel beat in many statistical categories and ranks second in the FBS in both passing yards (2,746) and touchdowns (24). What he doesn’t have, and can’t add until a potential ACC Championship, is a win over a top-tier opponent like Gabriel’s against Ohio State. That’s the biggest reason and perhaps the only reason he’s perceived to have fallen behind.
It’s really not fair how high the bar is for Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty to make a serious run at the Heisman, but it’s pretty clear the bar is basically Barry Sanders. Jeanty fell from co-leader to fourth-best odds on the heels of a 128-yard game on the road against a team previously unbeaten in conference with a run defense in the top quarter of the FBS.
Jeanty’s 128 rushing yards and 1 rush TD last week at UNLV were his fewest against an FBS opponent this season and his 3.88 yards per rush last week against UNLV were his first time under 7.0 this season.
He still leads the FBS by 53.6 rushing yards per game (196.6) over the next-closest player (Iowa’s Kaleb Johnson) and his 18 rush TD are one shy of Army’s Bryson Daily for the FBS lead.
At his current pace of 196.6 rushing yards per game, Jeanty will need to play 14 games this season to get to Barry Sanders’ official FBS record of 2,629 rushing yards. With the Broncos rapidly approaching locking up a Mountain West Championship berth, 14 games looks highly likely. He’s either going to need to pick the pace back up or Boise State’s going to have to win a College Football Playoff game and get him a 15th game if he’s going to beat Barry’s Bowl-inclusive total of 2,850 rushing yards.
The Big 12 Championship picture is pretty clear for a big ole mess of a conference: if idle and unbeaten BYU loses no more than one of its remaining games and neither Iowa State or Kansas State loses before Farmageddon, the winner of that Rivalry Week showdown will face the religiously-affiliated Cougars for the Big 12 Championship.
Iowa State will look to reach 8-0 for the first time in program history as a 14.5-point home favorite over Texas Tech after matching the 1938 team’s 6-0 start with a dramatic 38-35 win over UCF as a 13.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Sophomore QB Rocco Becht ran for the game-winning TD and two-point conversion with 30 seconds to play to cap off a 24-7 finish to the game after UCF took a 28-14 lead.
Becht has thrown a TD in 11 straight games dating to last year, matching Brock Purdy for the second-longest streak in ISU history — he can tie a different Purdy streak for the program record this week.
Kansas State feels like it’s been a bit buzzier than Iowa State despite a loss, probably owing mostly to the fact that a)it faced Coach Prime, Travis Hunter and Colorado and b)Avery Johnson is fun to watch. The ‘Cats will look to beat the secular Cougars this week and make it five straight wins since losing to the religiously-affiliated Cougars after escaping last week’s Sunflower Showdown unscathed.
K-State needed a pair of 4th quarter FG to hold off Kansas last week after falling behind 27-23 in their 16th straight win over the Jayhawks. Johnson was nothing if not active, throwing 34 times and running 14 more for 320 total yards (253 passing, 67 rushing), three total touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) and a lost fumble in the win over Kansas.
The Black Knights will look to ensure that the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is up for grabs in the traditional Army-Navy game while the Mids look to bounce back from their first loss and stay perfect in conference — moving us one step closer to seeing the service academies square off twice in a row.
Army will look to keep up their best start since getting to 9-0 in 1996 with a second straight win over Air Force after winning 23-3 last November in Denver. The Black Knights are looking for their sixth win in the last eight meetings with Air Force, but lost the last one at West Point two years ago after winning the Falcons’ previous two visits. Army has only two AAC games left which count towards the standings for the conference championship game — next week at North Texas and Thanksgiving weekend vs UTSA.
Navy is trying to (I wish I could think of a phrase other than) right the ship after last week’s ugly 51-14 loss at then-#12 Notre Dame saw them commit three times as many turnovers (6) as they had all season coming in (2) while also going without a takeaway for the first time this season. The Mids still have four games to get through in AAC play including this to possibly set up a date with Army before Army-Navy — they go to USF next week, host Tulane (also 4-0 in AAC) the week after that and go to ECU Thanksgiving weekend after a bye.
They’re also in the precarious position of facing a team which just got its coach fired, as Rice said goodbye to Mike Bloomgren after last week’s loss to UConn dropped the Owls to 2-6. Bloomgren finished his tenure with a 24-52 record over parts of seven season, though he went to Bowls the last two seasons (Rice’s first two Bowls since 2014).
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