EXCERPTS OF RECENT AFRICAN “STUBBORN THINGS” (and other assorted tales)
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.” —John Adams
(Note: Stubborn Things is available on my Substack; older posts are at WilsonCenter.org)
1. AFRICA’S HUMAN LANDSCAPE
Stubborn Thing: By 2050, Nigeria will likely have the world’s third largest population (surpassing the US) and one of its ten largest economies.
One of every five Africans is Nigerian, and Nigeria boasts Africa’s largest economy. It has the world's second largest film industry (“Nollywood”), is a major producer of oil and gas, has significant reserves of lithium and other critical minerals, and has rapidly expanding IT and financial services sectors. A Nigerian start up recently beat out an Israeli consortium for a drone-based security services contract….Despite its size and significance, there hasn’t been a U.S. presidential visit to Nigeria in 10 years….
Stubborn Thing: Malaria kills roughly 600,000 people each year, and is now present in four US states. Yet it’s largely preventable, and an affordable new vaccine is ramping up in production.
As anyone who has lived or worked in Africa can tell you, malaria has long been a terrible challenge for the continent, imposing considerable human and economic costs. The disease kills more than 600,000 people annually, and Africa accounts for 95% of all malaria cases—and 96% of its deaths. Among Africans, pregnant women and young children, who have lower natural immunity, are hit hardest. About 80% of malaria-related deaths are from children under the age of five.…When the US government’s President’s Malaria Initiative (PMI) came on to the scene in 2005, it dramatically expanded the world’s access to proven interventions (e.g., insecticide treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, rapid diagnostic tests, and more), and boosted training for vital health care workers. Together with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria, (known as the Global Fund), and other partners, PMI has helped save an estimated 7.6 million lives, and prevented more than 1.5 billion malaria cases….
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/malaria-largely-preventable-and-yet
Stubborn Thing: On average, 500 nurses leave Ghana for the West every month.
According to the World Health Organization’s WHO health workforce support and safeguards list 2023, some 55 countries have significant health staffing shortages—by the numbers, that means fewer than the median of 49 health workers per 10,000 people—and 40 of them are in Africa. In other words, roughly 80% of Africa is experiencing medical staff shortages and high rates of healthcare professionals leaving to work in other countries….Unfortunately, high rates of healthcare professionals leaving the continent is neither a new phenomenon, nor limited to Ghana. Egypt’s former health minister recently lamented that 65% of Egyptian doctors are working abroad, and a report from the UK’s House of Commons found that more than 3,000 Ghanaian health professionals had left that country for the United Kingdom from 2018 to 2021. At least 9,000 doctors left Nigeria to work in the UK, United States, and Canada from 2016 to 2018. And, when looking at 2015 data, the WHO found that Liberia had a mere 51 doctors for a population of 4.5 million, and Sierra Leone only had 136 doctors for 6 million people, making the doctor-to-population rate 0.1 and 0.2 per 1,000 people respectively. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/africas-healthworker-brain-drain
Stubborn Thing: At the end of 2024, only 10% of the US Representatives who voted to create PEPFAR were still in office—and none of the legislation’s original co-authors remain.
In 2008, Tanzania President Jakaya Kikwete implored, “Let me just make an appeal: Let PEPFAR continue...Can you imagine if this program is discontinued or disrupted? There would be so many people who lose hope, and certainly there will be death. You create more orphans… for PEPFAR not to continue, it's a recipe for disaster for us.” Standing next to him at a joint public appearance, US President George W. Bush said, “It appalled me very early on in my administration to realize that an entire generation of people could be lost to HIV/AIDS, and that those of us who were comfortable weren’t doing much about it…”
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/pepfar-looking-back-looking-ahead
2. AFRICA’S ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE
Stubborn Things: A study by the Infrastructure Consortium of Africa shows that poor infrastructure—roads, railways, harbors, etc.—adds 30-40% to the costs of goods traded among African countries.
….Part of what holds Africa back in its journey to self-reliance is that many countries there lack the reliable infrastructure that private investment often needs. An analysis by Deloitte shows that the lack of physical infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa is still keeping many investors at bay. Large commodity finds—such as oil, gas, iron ore, platinum, coal, and copper—are driving the need for infrastructure. Yet, at the same time, investment in infrastructure needed to extract and transport these commodities to the global market is also driving Africa’s economic growth….African leaders are striving to accelerate infrastructure improvements and are looking to both China and the West for assistance. As we read about nearly every day, China is answering their call. Are we?
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/why-africa-talks-so-much-about-infrastructure
Stubborn Thing: Nearly 1,000,000 Tanzanians are entering the workforce each year, but only 100,000 new jobs are being created in the country’s formal economy.
Why makes Tanzania a special place? Sone would point to its extraordinary natural beauty…wonders from Mt. Kilimanjaro to the Serengeti, the sparkling waters of the Indian Ocean to Jane Goodall's beloved Gombe Stream Park. Others would point to its rich cultural heritage that can be seen in the fishing dhows off Dar es Salaam and the fish-and-spice markets of Zanzibar. Still others, to its vast mineral wealth…everything from gold to Tanzanite, cobalt to graphite.
But what really makes Tanzania special are its young people…full of big dreams, as well as the willingness to work hard to achieve them. They long to shape the future—their own and their country’s.
But what happens if those dreams are out of reach and their voice isn’t being heard?
Stubborn Thing: As of 2023, the total sum of international remittances was four times greater than all of the “official development assistance” provided by OECD donor countries.
Decades ago, "official development assistance” (ODA), defined by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) as “government aid that promotes and specifically targets the economic development and welfare of developing countries,” made up over three-quarters of the international financial flows into such countries. More recently, however, despite the growth of programs like Feed the Future and PEPFAR, ODA’s relative share of such flows has fallen to less than 10%—and that’s before this year’s cuts in foreign assistance budgets.
One reason is the growth in foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI is defined by the Congressional Research Service as “a type of cross-border investment that occurs when a resident of one country obtains a lasting interest in and degree of influence over the management of a business in another.” As the OECD puts it, FDI is at the “heart of globalization.”
But the more significant reason for the relative decline of ODA is the rapid rise in the level of international remittances. Remittances are defined by the Migration Data Portal as “financial or in-kind transfers made by migrants to friends and relatives back in countries of origin.” And they’re growing even more rapidly than FDI….
Stubborn Thing: Over 80% of the world's “least developed countries” are commodity dependent.
Using United Nations data, countries with “low levels of human assets" (limited health and education capacities) and significant vulnerability to economic shocks are classified not merely as low income, but “least developed countries (LDCs).” The UN suggest they’re the “poorest and weakest segment of the international community.” And of the 44 countries that are on the list of LDCs, over 80% of them depend upon commodities (energy, mining, or agriculture) for 60% or more of their exports….
Analysis from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) reminds us, however, that not all trade and investment is created equal. More to the point, not all trade and investment produces the development impacts which meet human needs and lessen, if not eliminate, the need for humanitarian support. According to UNCTAD, countries for which trade in commodities makes up most of their exports are (a) less economically stable because of inherent unpredictability in price swings, (b) slower to economically diversify, and (c) more likely to be mired in economic inequality and multigenerational poverty due to the low wages usually paid to farmers and workers (even those employed in strategically important supply chains)….
Stubborn Thing: In 2022, Zimbabwe banned the export of unprocessed lithium. Yet, thanks in part to quick moves by China, lithium exports continue to rise —with Harare's approval.
Lithium. It's a vital ingredient in everything from rechargeable batteries for consumer electronics and electric vehicles to broad energy grid storage….
And yet, in 2022, Zimbabwe imposed a sweeping export ban on its unprocessed lithium ore and an additional ban on exports of lithium concentrate that will go into effect in 2027. Why? Because, like their counterparts in many parts of Africa, leaders in Harare are facing demographics-driven pressures that go beyond their broad need for revenue….
Stubborn Thing: The world’s first widely used mobile money service was invented in Africa.
It’s hard not to be inspired by Africa’s young people.
Those who have spent much time there are often overflowing with stories of moving encounters with African youth in remote villages or big city neighborhoods. The stories speak to the optimism and resilience visitors sense in those young people, and express amazement at how youth have found ways to persevere, even flourish, in the face of material challenges and disadvantages that would quickly discourage many of us in the West. Tourists often return to the US with souvenirs made from discarded household items that African children have somehow turned into toys or even beautiful works of art. Tin cans transformed into toy cars and trucks. Old wire and batteries become animal figurines. Broken glass and thatching magically transformed into jewelry.
Now imagine if those same young Africans had frugal technologies —mobile phones, civilian drones, etc.— at their fingertips. That’s actually what’s happening in many places…and it represents one of the most hopeful —and least reported— stories unfolding in Africa. And it’s also one of the many reasons why I firmly believe it’s in America’s strategic interest to stay close to Africa and Africans….
https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/critical-minerals-critical-minds-1a9?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
Stubborn Thing: 95% of the animals in Gorongosa National Park were destroyed in Mozambique’s civil war. Investments in the people and the communities surrounding the park are bringing the wildlife back—102,000 animals at last count.
Mozambique’s Gorongosa National Park has been called “Africa’s most successful rewilding effort.” Ironically, it’s the investments made in the people and communities that are key to that success being sustained.…large swaths of the Gorongosa ecosystem were engulfed in the Mozambican civil war that erupted in 1977—a war which caused nearly a million deaths, and the forced displacement of millions more. Fighters often took refuge in the park, killing vast quantities of animals for food, or for money; selling items like elephant tusks helped finance their operations.
The war’s end only brought partial relief to Gorongosa as economic fallout and ongoing political instability left the area vulnerable to poachers. By 2001, the wildebeest population haddropped from 5,500 to 1, hippos declined from 3,500 to 44, and both elephant herds and lion prides were reduced by 90%.…Gorongosa’s fortunes finally took a turn for the better when, in 2004, the park captured the attention (and the heart) of American entrepreneur and philanthropist Greg Carr. “The Gorongosa Project” is now the largest employer in central Mozambique. In addition to traditional conservation operations, a growing number of Mozambicans have jobs with innovative SDZ projects that both pay good salaries and incentivize ecosystem preservation….
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/rewilding-investing-people
3. THE OTHER TEAM
Stubborn Thing: Even before President Trump took office this year, China had a larger diplomatic presence in Africa than the US.
China is Africa’s largest trading partner, and has been for more than a dozen years. And the momentum in the China-Africa relationship seems to be building.…But it’s also important to understand the broader story of how we got to this point. Beijing has been paying attention to Africa for years and making serious investments in its relationships on the continent. Its diplomatic presence now surpasses that of any other country —including the US. According to the Lowy Institute’s 2024 Global Diplomacy Index (https://globaldiplomacyindex.lowyinstitute.org/), China has now established sixty diplomatic posts in Africa. That’s 4 more than the US and over 20 more than Russia….Every official sent out by Beijing in support of a diplomatic post represents Chinese eyes and ears in the field. Each is a Chinese voice on the continent and a new channel for China to spot economic opportunities, press its interests, and pitch for its businesses….
https://substack.com/@ambmarkgreen1/note/p-167806122?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Stubborn Thing: As of 2020, Africa’s natural resources were pledged to back nearly $66 billion in loans made for the most part from China’s state-controlled Development and Exim Banks.
Africa has enormous economic potential. It is the youngest continent in the world, and nearly half of the world’s working-age population will be African in 30 years. With that youth comes not only a vast source of ready labor, but also a potential treasure trove of new ideas and innovations. The continent is also home to a large portion of the world’s most valuable natural resources: 40% of global gold, nearly 90% of chromium and platinum and, overall, about a third of the world’s known critical minerals supply. The value of these natural resources will only grow as the global search for new sources of energy and components for ever-faster microchips intensifies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates demand for nickel will likely double by 2050, triple for cobalt, and increase ten times for lithium. Given these demand projections, the IMF estimates that African countries could reap 10% of cumulative global revenues from copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium—which together are estimated to reach $16 trillion dollars—over 25 years….
(https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/africas-natural-resources-africans)
Stubborn Thing: 40% of the world’s cocoa beans are produced in Côte d’Ivoire. In February, China opened that country’s largest cocoa factory.
Nearly everyone loves chocolate. Increasingly, that includes those living in China, the world’s second most populous nation….Meanwhile, China has been proactively keeping up with increased domestic demand for chocolate products. In 2019, China signed a deal with Côte d’Ivoire to open two cocoa processing facilities in San Pedro and Abidjan, the country’s economic capital. Each plant can produce 50,000 metric tons of chocolate end-products each year and can store up to 300,000 tons. The Abidjan plant, built by the Chinese company China Light Industry Nanning Design Engineering, is now the largest cocoa bean processing facility in the entire country….Interestingly, when China loaned Côte d’Ivoire $200 million to build these two factories, it negotiated for part of the loan to be repaid in cocoa beans. Accordingly, 40% of the output from both plants will be dedicated to China...
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/china-and-chocolate-factory
Stubborn Thing: As of 2020, nearly 40,000 more African students were choosing China for their university education than the US.
As we’ve noted many times, Africa is by far the world’s youngest continent. The overall median age is only about nineteen, in some places far lower than that, and all ten of the world’s youngest nations are in Africa.
But who will shape the young minds of Africa? Who will give them the skills, education, and experiences they’ll need to take their rightful place at the world’s economic table?
More striking, as more and more of Africa’s best young minds look for overseas institutions to pursue post-secondary learning and research, more and more are looking to places other than the US. According to Carnegie research and analysis, as of 2020, more than 81,000 African students were attending university in China, while only 48,000 were going to the US for their studies.
Something for us to ponder….
Stubborn Thing: For more than three decades, every Chinese foreign minister has made his first overseas trip of the year to somewhere in Africa.
As one of my mentors, the late Cong. Jack Kemp, used to say, “People need to know that you care before they care.
Consider this, not only does each Chinese Foreign Minister kick off the year with a trip to Africa, but Chinese leaders have made nearly 80 visits to over 40 African countries over the last decade. https://qz.com/africa/1335418/chinese-leaders-visit-africa-more-often-than-you-think-and-not-always-the-places-you-expect.
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/30-years-every-chinese-foreign-minister-visits-africa-first. https://substack.com/@ambmarkgreen1/note/c-133833336?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
Stubborn Thing: For every $1 China sends overseas in grants, it lends 35.
The world of international development continues to grapple with the uncertainties left by deep cuts to foreign assistance budgets in Europe and the US, as well as the dismantling of various assistance programs and institutions.
But as a new report from AidData, an innovative research lab at William and Mary College, reminds us, China largely abandoned “official development assistance” (ODA) years ago in favor of an aggressive loan-based strategy. As “Chasing China: Learning to Play by Beijing’s Global Lending Rules” puts it, “The percentage of [China’s] overseas lending and grant-giving portfolio that qualifies as aid (ODA) plunged from 22% in 2000 to 1% in 2023.” (https://www.aiddata.org/publications/chasing-china)….
4. UPHEAVAL AND POTENTIAL UPHEAVAL
Stubborn Thing: A larger share of the world’s terrorism-related deaths come from Africa’s Sahel region than South Asia and MENA combined.
Each year, the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) produces Global Terrorism Index, or GTI, for 163 separate countries. The most recent GTI finds that, by the numbers, terrorism deaths dropped slightly during 2022. However, much of that “decline” is a result of the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan: since the Taliban is now the government, it isn’t included in GTI’s terrorist calculations.
But the index’s most eye-opening finding? The Sahel now accounts for 43 percent of the world’s terrorism deaths—more than South Asia and the MENA region combined. That percentage is on the rise. According to GTI, two Sahel countries—Mali and Burkina Faso—are among the world’s five countries most impacted by terrorism deaths. With 1,135 terrorism deaths in 2022, Burkina Faso now accounts for more terrorism deaths annually than any other country…
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sahel-now-accounts-43-global-terrorism-deaths
Stubborn Thing: At the end of October, officials in Cameroon and Tanzania shut off internet access in the days surrounding their national elections. Unfortunately, these moves were hardly unprecedented. In 2024, African governments shut off the internet at least 21 times, impacting 15 countries and many millions of people. Tanzania’s actions were its third of this year.
When I taught school in an African village in the late 1980s, my students didn’t know they were poor. How could they? Our community had but one telephone, a wind up phone mounted on a wooden box in the school’s main office. It could barely carry long distance calls, and only then intense operator assistance. The radio stations we could pick up and the newspapers we could find in the local market did little more than run government pronouncements and well staged photos and pronouncements.
It’s hard to overstate how much the arrival of affordable mobile phones has changed life in the developing world—and how citizens relate to the communities and countries around them….
Stubborn Thing: Since 1950, forty-five African countries have experienced at least one coup attempt.
In October 2025, Madagascar’s president was forced to flee his country when its military took effective control of the government. In November, Guinea-Bissau’s president was arrested and its military seized power just as the government was to announce presidential election results. In December, Benin’s president faced a coup attempt (unsuccessful) staged by a small group of military officials….
An October 2023 Voice of America report estimated that of the nearly 500 coup attempts that have occurred across the world since 1950, more than 220 were in Africa….
As a friend of mine likes to say, “The thing about autocratic regimes is that they are stable…until they’re not. And when they’re not, all bets are off.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/ambmarkgreen1/p/stubborn-things-to-coup-or-not-to?r=2a16ct&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=overlay
OTHER TALES
THANKS, BUT WHAT I REALLY NEED IS…
On my first overseas trip as USAID administrator, I was able to take part in a food distribution in Ethiopia that we were sponsoring through our partners, the World Food Program (WFP). WFP workers were distributing sacks of grain to families in a drought-stricken village in the country’s Somali Region, and I joined WFP’s dynamic leader David Beasley as we interacted with villagers carrying those sacks back to their modest homes.
I will never forget a wonderful Ethiopian woman who reached out to me.
She said, “I have a question. First off, I really appreciate this food. We need this grain. But my question is, can you help me with irrigation so that I never have to ask you for food again?”
“CHASING” AND THE “JOURNEY TO SELF-RELIANCE”
So much of who I am has its roots in a small Kenyan village where Sue and I taught school nearly three decades ago…
In our little school, which ran largely off community donations, many of our classes had only one textbook for every half dozen students. That meant that we had to write out daily lessons word on the thick black paint that served as a chalkboard….
I remember my first encounter with “chasing” like it was yesterday. It was just days before an exam, and 7 or 8 students had their name called. While others kept their head down and continued to take notes —they had clearly grown accustomed to this process— these poor kids quietly stood up and slowly left the room.
I stood there for a moment, not quite sure what to do. I eventually turned back to the chalkboard, and began writing once again, only to hear a soft noise over my shoulder.
When I stole a glance, I saw some of those same students carefully sneaking back into my class. My thoughts drifted back to my days at Edison Junior High. Students sneaking in to school?
JULY 4TH IN AFRICA
There are a few greater privileges for an ambassador posted overseas than being able to host an Independence Day celebration.
When I served as our ambassador to Tanzania in 2008, I was determined to make our July 4th festivities a thrill for both our embassy family and Dar es Salaam’s broader diplomatic community. I made sure we had plenty of Americana on hand: hot dogs and hamburgers, family games, red-white-blue face painting, patriotic music — even a dunk tank….
When the Tanzanian cabinet member came forward to the podium to give his government’s official response to my remarks, he pulled out the pages of his prepared remarks, and began with formal acknowledgements of those present. But as he looked around at the families and those pieces of Americana, he paused.
He slowly rolled up his prepared text, put it back in his coat pocket, and struck a more relaxed pose. As he looked around his audience, he said very simply, “We want to be who you are. We want to have what you have.” Then he stepped back.
That was the best July 4th speech I’ve ever heard. It was certainly superior to mine —vastly so…
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