The EIA reported a crude build of 2,479 MBbls for the week, against a Bloomberg survey looking for a draw of 1,488 MBbls, a miss of 3,967 MBbls. Commercial crude inventories stand at 407.0 MMBbls, 17.1 MMBbls below last year and 25.9 MMBbls below the five-year average, so the stock cushion is still thin even after this week’s build.
Storage Change vs. Analyst Estimates
Crude inventories built 2,479 MBbls on the week against a Bloomberg survey calling for a draw of 1,488 MBbls, a swing of 3,967 MBbls versus expectations.
The API survey had pointed to a build of 2,700 MBbls, so the official number came in 221 MBbls under API but far above the Bloomberg consensus.
Inventories
Commercial crude inventories rose to 407.0 MMBbls, a build of 2.5 MMBbls on the week and 16.7 MMBbls below the same week last year. The deficit to last year is narrowing, which erodes part of the bullish inventory argument.
Cushing stocks rose to 21.0 MMBbls, up 2.4 MMBbls on the week and 2.1 MMBbls below last year. Hub tanks are refilling from a low base, which should ease pressure on prompt time spreads.
DOE Total US Crude Oil Production
Domestic crude production printed 13,804 MBbl/d, up 8 MBbl/d on the week and 520 MBbl/d above the same week last year. Supply growth of that order caps rallies on the crude curve.
Lower 48 output held at 13,376 MBbl/d, 397 MBbl/d above last year, while Alaska contributed 428 MBbl/d. The year-over-year gain is coming almost entirely from the lower states.
Refinery Inputs
Crude oil input to refineries fell to 17,153 MBbl/d, down 183 MBbl/d on the week but still 29 MBbl/d above last year. Softer runs are the main reason crude backed up into commercial tanks.
The four-week average sits at 17,169 MBbl/d against 16,955 MBbl/d a year ago, up 1.3 percent, so one soft week has not bent the run-rate trend.
Crude Imports and Exports
Crude exports rose to 3,685 MBbl/d, up 218 MBbl/d on the week and 367 MBbl/d above last year. Steady export pull is what has kept the year-on-year inventory deficit in place.
Crude imports jumped to 6,198 MBbl/d, up 515 MBbl/d on the week and 237 MBbl/d above last year, lifting net imports to 2,513 MBbl/d. Imports are the largest physical contributor to the build, though the balancing adjustment swung further.
Gasoline stocks drew to 209.7 MMBbls, down 1.6 MMBbls on the week and 17.4 MMBbls below last year. This year’s line sits below the five-year range for late July, which supports crack spreads.
Finished motor gasoline supplied was 9,031 MBbl/d, 10 MBbl/d lower on the week and 8 MBbl/d below the same week last year. Peak-season demand is flat rather than growing, so the stock draw is a supply story, not a demand story.
Propane
Propane and propylene stocks built to 103.1 MMBbls, up 0.8 MMBbls on the week and 18.4 MMBbls above last year. That surplus is the most bearish inventory position in the complex.
Propane supplied jumped to 909 MBbl/d, up 429 MBbl/d on the week and 104 MBbl/d above last year. The weekly propane series is volatile, so treat one week as noise rather than trend.
Distillate
Distillate stocks drew to 107.2 MMBbls, down 3.5 MMBbls on the week and 5.8 MMBbls below last year. Distillate remains the tightest part of the barrel.
Distillate supplied rose to 3,941 MBbl/d, up 417 MBbl/d on the week and 221 MBbl/d above last year. Firm demand against low stocks keeps diesel cracks supported.
Jet Fuel
Jet fuel supplied fell to 1,629 MBbl/d, down 199 MBbl/d on the week and 76 MBbl/d below last year. A drop of that size late in the summer travel season is a soft signal for jet cracks.
Jet fuel stocks, which are not charted here, stand at 46.9 MMBbls, 2.5 MMBbls above last year and essentially unchanged on the week. Comfortable jet inventories cap any upside from the demand dip.
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