The Waha basis curve has weakened; the prompt contract had been strong with high January demand, but is now far from those highs, as the market looks toward spring. Production is only expected to increase from here to fill the new egress that Matterhorn provided. In times of pipe maintenance, planned or unplanned, spot market Waha prices have the potential to realize negative.
The Waha forward curve has been under considerable pressure since December and remains weak through the end of 2026. We have long highlighted the risk in the mid-2025 to late-2026 period, as no material new pipeline capacity is expected until 2H 2026. The recent extreme weakness in 2024 realized prices may be reinforcing bearish sentiment, leading to increased selling along the Waha curve due to recency bias and tight projections for egress.
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Winter '24-'25
Matterhorn (2.5 Bcf/d) now online
This helped relieve basin egress stress
October and November maintenance has been offsetting new capacity and straining Waha pricing as low shoulder season demand persist
Flow data is pointing to there being more new gas hitting the market than previously thought
Summer '25
Matterhorn has flowed at higher than anticipated rates with Permian supply at higher than expected levels.
Therefore, this part of the curve has been under heavy selling pressure as egress is expected to be tight.
There could be times of low cash prices like 2024 in low-demand shoulder months and or times of pipeline maintenance.
Winter '25-'26 & Summer '26
If supply growth is steady (oil prices), then 2Q ’25 through late ’26 is a period of price concern.
The Permian’s next takeaway project doesn’t come online until 3Q of ’26. Similar to Summer 25 in terms of price risks.
Possible overbuild in outbound capacity as Blackcomb, GCX expansion, and Hugh Brinson come into service.
The forward curve reflects this reality as Cal '27 is priced much higher than Cal '25 and Cal '26.
For more details on Permian gas prices and fundamentals, explore the full page below. This page is regularly updated, so be sure to bookmark it to stay informed.
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