$60 Oil in 2027? Inside the EIA's Post-Iran Reset

The latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook highlights just how dramatically the oil market outlook has shifted following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
3Q26 global oil inventories are now expected to decline by 2.2 MMBbl/d, down from a previous forecast of more than 7 MMBbl/d, reflecting expectations for increased production and the continued recovery of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
With supply risks easing, the EIA has significantly lowered its oil price outlook. The agency now expects WTI to average $71.06/Bbl in 3Q26, down from its previous forecast of $95.45/Bbl, while WTI is projected to average $60.76/Bbl in 2027 as global inventories are expected to build by roughly 5 MMBbl/d next year.
As supply returns to the market, the EIA expects oil balances to loosen, with lower prices increasingly driven by improving fundamentals rather than concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

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