Before we get started, I just wanted to extend a thank you to everyone who’s subscribed to the blog this year! 200… wow. I know a lot of you came in from the original “hate map” project or recommendations on Substack, so I appreciate you staying around as we go through this season together.
Like last year, Denver is thrown into an eastern regional and will need to beat out 3 teams more local than them to make it to the Frozen Four.
Would you bet against them?
Pressed for time? Join the 6on5 Bracket Contest here!
For the second year in a row, the Boston College Eagles are the tournament’s true #1 seed. They’ve returned a large chunk of last year’s national finalist group and have made key additions such as star freshman James Hagens and Teddy Stiga, as well as depth pieces such as Brady Berard.
On offense, the Eagles are among the nation’s best — largely in part because of high-end, blue-chip prospect talent.
Capitals prospect Ryan Leonard leads the group and the Hobey Baker conversation with a skill set tailor-made for breaking games. The World Junior MVP has NHL-ready skating, hands, and physicality that make him nearly impossible to stop — so all you can do is slow him down.
He’s often found flanking projected Top-3 pick James Hagens alongside Gabe Perreault, both of whom are very cerebral hockey players that complement Leonard’s constant scoring threat very well.
If the Eagles jumble lines, Andre Gasseau will usually move between Leonard and Perreault, and breakout freshman Teddy Stiga will skate with Hagens. I love Teddy Stiga. He is an exceptional two-way forward, who you’ll see make noise on offense but also on the penalty kill and in tough defensive match-ups.
At defense and in goal, the Eagles might not have an offensive star like Denver to BU, but they have some of the best depth and two-way play in the country. Grad student Eamon Powell leads the group, putting up solid numbers going both ways, while Aram Minnetian and Lukas Gustafsson sit behind him on the depth chart, making the right side of their D very difficult to play against.
Jacob Fowler is the last line of defense, and possibly the best goaltender in the NCAA. His positioning is elite, and in the rare event is he caught in a bad spot, his reaction time and ability to contort or throw himself to recover is a treat to watch.
The Friars are good — now they have a chance to prove it.
Their biggest strength is a deep forward group, led by Hudson Malinoski. They don’t have a true star, and realistically will need to score more than they have in the past if they want to win a national title.
Trevor Connelly’s name will catch a lot of fans’ eyes, and his skills are worth making a note of, however, over half of his 13 points in 22 games came in 2 contests. Whether it’s because of injuries or plain luck, his production has been feast or famine. If he catches fire this month though… watch out.
Upperclassmen Guillaume Richard and Austen May anchor the Friar defense, which like the forward group, is deep and sturdy. Their actual numbers are somewhat average, but you can probably blame some of this on playing in Hockey East. Philip Svedeback will start in net, and he’s a reliable option.
The Friars weren’t very successful against super high-end teams like Boston College and Maine this year (combined record of 0-4-1), so I just can’t see them knocking off enough of the teams in this tier, whether here or in St. Louis to win a title though.
The reigning national champs have one of the best first lines in the country, and 2 of the top defensemen as well — oh, and the best coach in the sport.
Not your typical #9 seed.
The Pioneers are dangerous on offense, where the Thompson-King-Devine line makes flat-out jaw-dropping plays and controls the zone with the best in the country. They make excellent use of the perimeter to create offense for themselves, making defenses dance with passing and use of space.
Their defensive group received a big blow earlier this week when they found out that Boston Buckberger is out for the season, but they still have Zeev Buium and Eric Pohlkamp. Buium is a treat to watch — he’s super dangerous with the puck, with amazing hands, and ability to find passing lanes and skating routes to break defenses.
Pohlkamp is much more traditional, playing a more physical game and working as more of a shutdown defenseman. His defensive numbers weren’t as impressive this year as they were in his time at Bemidji State, but Denver plays “higher event” hockey so this can be explained by looking at team systems.
In goal, Matt Davis’ performance this year doesn’t inspire too much confidence… but he’s proven that he’s capable of turning it on in a tough situation before.
I would be more concerned about Denver’s monumental choke in the NCHC Finals if they weren’t a team of experienced winners both in the NCAA and World Juniors — it’s certainly a red flag for a team that isn’t as strong as it was last year.
Bentley is the furthest away from the Top 16 of everyone in the field, qualifying with an Atlantic Hockey conference title.
Their offense lacks a true star but has plenty of two-way forwards that work to make opposing stars’ jobs harder through solid possession play and forechecking (for context, the most prolific player to come out of their program in the last few years is Maine's two-way star Harrison Scott).
The Falcon defense is similar — nothing flashy, but they make your job harder and that’s all that matters. Their analytics aren’t as impressive individually as other tournament teams, but their actual production against is pretty limited.
Bentley’s best resume bullet? They beat Maine in Maine this year. The only other teams to do that were Top 10 Denver and UConn. So maybe they can make something happen again here.
#1 Boston College should be able to very easily beat #22 Bentley. They have a huge talent advantage, play very sound hockey in transition, and have played in some very big games before. The Falcons may be able to rule the sky if they can tighten the game up and turn it into a rock fight, but the Eagles should be fine.
#8 Providence and #9 Denver are going to be part of a very compelling game. The model projects it as dead even, but Denver’s strength comes from the power of a few exceptional individuals while the Friars are going to lean on their depth to give the Pioneers 60 hard minutes.
This could make the Boston Buckberger injury matter — since that’s one less star-caliber defenseman that the Pioneers can match up against a great forward line.
If BC plays Denver… get your popcorn. It’ll be star power on star power, and the Eagles will get their first chance at redemption since the Pioneers upset them in the final last year. I will be at this hypothetical game, surely on the edge of my seat.
If BC plays Providence, it’ll be an in-conference match-up but BC dominated the series so far and I would expect them to win another game if they needed to. The stat I called out earlier with PC’s record against Top 5 opponents looms large over this potential rematch.
I can’t see Bentley winning two games in a row, but good for them if they do. They’d need to be perfect all weekend to make it happen, which is just so so so hard to do against elite competition.
Boston College is the model’s tournament favorite, and KRACH and Vegas think the same thing. I have them as a 22% chance to win, and sure, this also means there’s a 78% chance they lose… but you have to think “if not now, then when?”.
For the other two serious contenders:
If Denver makes it through, they’ll probably be treated as a favorite against whoever wins the Fargo regional given their pedigree and experience.
If Providence wins, they’ll need to punch above their weight against some of the country’s very best, but it’s not impossible.
Both of these teams have about the same odds per the model, but a handicapper would probably lean towards Denver (and rightfully so).
I’ve been trying not to share my picks, partially because I’m going to seesaw on them until 1:59 on Thursday, but BC should be on a warpath to win this regional after their Hockey East loss. It’s right in their own backyard, and they have serious unfinished business to take care of.
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