Instead of North Dakota fans going everywhere else to watch hockey, other teams will descend on the state’s most populous city to fight for a spot in St. Louis.

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The Teams

#4 Western Michigan

The WMU Broncos are on an award tour. First, they won the NCHC Regular Season title, and then they followed it up with a gusty win against Denver in the Frozen Faceoff to hang their first NCHC Tournament banner.

Sophomore Alex Bump is the team’s heart and soul on offense, where the Broncos ranked 1st in the country in Goals per Game. The team is deep though, with 8 forwards at a .5 Points per Game or better scoring pace this year.

The offense is fast — and they have a certain “NCHC-ness” to how they play — they’re not reliant on off-the-rush like some other offenses that push the pace, and even their highest-skill players like Alex Bump are capable of going down into the trenches and creating their own possessions and space.

The team’s defense is led by Samuel Sjolund and Joona Vaisanen, who are both capable of matching up with any opponent’s top line — and if they do slip, one of Cameron Rowe or Hampton Slukynsky is behind them in net to cover any mistakes.

One of the Bronco’s biggest strengths is their depth, which isn’t limited to the offensive production I mentioned earlier. They don’t have any defensive personnel that would be liabilities for them, and their two-headed monster in the net is one of, if not the best, tandems in the country.

There isn’t much to say about them other than they’re very good. The worst loss on their record was an overtime game at Colorado College, and they played national title favorite Boston College very close at Conte Forum.

#5 Minnesota

The Golden Gophers are a really interesting case going into the tournament.

Their offense is outstanding, with a cornucopia of talent that coaches at most other programs (and I’m not just using this as a figure of speech) would kill for.

They play with incredible pace and creativity off the rush, which makes sense when you look at the names on their roster. They have almost as many 1st round picks as they do undrafted players, and some of the highlights they’ve earned are incredible.

Their defensive group has a similar pedigree, with 4 of their 6 defensemen putting up SPAM masterclass seasons, and Sam Rinzel and Ryan Chesley having some of the best years in the country at that position.

This group complements the team’s forwards and pace of play very well, as skilled puck-movers that get things moving in the right direction and put opposing teams on their heels fast.

“Wow! Minnesota sounds great — why aren’t they ranked #1?” you might ask.

Their goaltending is average at best, and some blemishes on their schedule are too much to overlook.

First, the Gophers went winless against the other top-tier title contender in their conference, #2 Michigan State. This means their best win is #10 Ohio State — which isn’t a huge deal, but every other team in the Top 10 except WMU (who doesn’t have as many bad losses as Minnesota does) has a Top 5 win.

Second, they’ve had a rough season since January, with an exclamation point put on their struggles after a series loss at the hands of middling Notre Dame in the Big Ten.

Some of this is just scheduling (their non-conference schedule was weak, limiting their chances to get big OOC wins), but it gives me some concern as to what their ceiling is once every team they play is as talented as them — and has better big game resumes.

#11 UMass

UMass has gone from a team with 2 stud defensemen driving the engine to a team with multiple offensive dynamos punishing the opposition for any space they’re given.

Forwards Cole O’Hara and Aydar Suniev have been among the nation’s top players to watch this year. O’Hara has broken out for 51 points, making his presence known all over the zone as a scorer and playmaker (more than doubling his underclassman totals), while Suniev has built on a strong freshman year.

The Russian sophomore has a wicked shot, and it feels like everything he does with the puck and in pursuit of it is smooth. He lost some time to injury this year, but when he is in the lineup, him and O’Hara dominate the right side of the ice from separate lines, giving Left Defenseman hellish nights.

On defense, I alluded to the Minutemen’s loss of Ryan Ufko and Scott Morrow, but it’s not as if they have a weak group this year. Freshmen Francesco Dell’elce and Larry Keenan have helped the group reload fast, and any mistakes they make can be made up by Czech U20 team goaltender Michael Hrabal.

Hrabal is having a year slightly worse than some may have expected based on the conversation around him and his WJC performance, but he has shown that he can be solid in big games and could catch fire in the tournament — which would be bad news for whoever stands in UMass’ path.

#14 Minnesota State

Minnesota State vaulted up the CCHA’s totem poll when just before the season started, they added Rhett Pitlick through a somewhat shocking silent transfer.

Then they kicked off their campaign by punching Michigan in the mouth 5-2 at Yost, making it clear that the Mavericks were going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Their offense may not be as potent as some of the other teams in this tournament, but Rhett Pitlick is continuing his great Golden Gopher career in his new home, leading the team with 40 points and great playmaking.

On defense, the Mavericks have been a tough nut to crack, but it can be hard to tell how much of their lockdown numbers are a byproduct of playing against relatively weak CCHA competition versus outstanding seasons from defenseman Evan Murr, and Mike Richter finalist Alex Tracy.

Alex Tracy is going to be the reason if the Mavericks can get an upset (or possibly two) in this region. The junior has continued his meteoric rise up the national goaltending rankings this year, improving from an .879 in his rookie season and .910 last year to post a .945 Save Percentage this year.

His team plays great defense in front of him but most stats, traditional or advanced, tell the story that he is having a career year.

How do they match up?

Round of 16

#4 Western Michigan draws #14 Minnesota State, where the biggest challenge for the Broncos is just going to be executing. They’re going to need to beat a team that is coming in with momentum from a conference title just like they are, and could find themselves frustrated by a Mavericks defense that has stood tall all year.

The talent advantage for the Broncos will likely be too much for the Mavericks to overcome but don’t be shocked if this one turns out to be a low-scoring affair or you tune into ESPN+ in the 3rd and see it’s a one-goal game.

#5 Minnesota has a numbers advantage over #11 UMass, but some chatter I’ve seen online and in the media has this as a popular upset pick. I can see it, as Minnesota has slipped in the second half, and the Minutemen have a considerable advantage in goal.

Potential Final Match-Ups

Western Michigan and Minnesota in front of North Dakota fans who don’t like either team, but really don’t like Minnesota is the clash we deserve. If they face off, it’ll be interesting to see how Minnesota’s rush offense plays against WMU’s more all-around approach to winning hockey games.

If UMass upsets Minnesota and faces Western Michigan, it could spell doom for the Broncos. It’s not that the Minutemen are a super bad match-up, but coming out of this year’s toughest conference and with the momentum of a big win against the Gophers, they could easily foray into the Frozen Four.

If Alex Tracy gets hot and Minnesota State gets a win, watch out. Hot goalies are dangerous, and in a single-elimination setting the Mavericks’ talent gap can easily be made up by tight system defense, good goaltending, and a little bit of chance.

Beyond the Regional

Strangely, the model doesn’t love Western Michigan’s title odds. Their Team SPAM numbers are a little low, and Hampton Slukynsky’s impact in the model isn’t as high as someone might expect, but things just seem… low (4.3%).

Some of this comes from the fact they need to beat Minnesota or UMass to get through, who also have decent odds (5.8% and 3.5% respectively) — but Vegas has them at nearly triple the chances, and KRACH has them at about double.

Discrepancy aside: whoever comes out of this leg of the tournament would most likely draw Boston College, which is an interesting match-up for either of our 2 favorites. If it’s WMU, they almost beat BC at Conte Forum near the beginning of the year. If it’s Minnesota, they’re one of the few teams who can confidently outscore the Eagles.

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Video sourced from InStat