Trophy Season Continues | Conference Championship Preview

Did you miss me? Well, I missed you. I took a short break to begin work on content for this week and next, so keep your inbox open and your eyes peeled.

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Let’s break down each conference tournament, in order from what I find to be the most interesting narratives to the least.

Quinnipiac is safe-ish for the tournament, but the right mix of events could lead to a nightmare situation where they just miss the cut. So — the mission is still to win the damn thing because it’s the only way to guarantee their 5-season tournament streak doesn’t come crashing down.

They have the misfortune of drawing a Cornell team that has come out of hibernation in the first round, so this gets a little harder than it could’ve been. The Big Red are undefeated in March — and they’ve only given up 2 goals since the calendar flipped. If my model emphasized recent performance, they could have much better odds.

They have a chance to send longtime head coach Mike Schafer off with a storybook ending if they can qualify for the NCAA tournament. Their defense is finally playing how everyone thought it would back in October, and they’re on a hot streak.

Clarkson and Dartmouth both also need 2 wins to go dancing next week. The Golden Knights were usually on the outside looking in, and the Big Green started strong but came back to earth as their early-season PDO numbers suggested. They could be getting hot again though — they’re riding a 6-game win streak.

Of note: Clarkson swept the season series against Dartmouth and Quinnipiac while going undefeated against Cornell. The ECAC only plays 2-game sets, but no other team in this bracket has a head-to-head advantage like this.

Two teams are pretty safe (Denver and Western Michigan). Two teams need to win a trophy to go dancing (Arizona State and North Dakota).

Arizona State will take on a Denver team that they had the upper hand against this year, but by the thinnest of margins — 2 of their 3 wins were by just one goal, and they took the Pios to overtime in their loss.

I find Denver’s trouble with Arizona State interesting. On paper, Denver has an advantage at every position but goalie—but Arizona State’s experienced top-end scorers played extremely well in their 4 games earlier this year.

Rewatching their series from February, a lot of the Sun Devil goals came off of greasy plays where Denver wasn’t able to protect “the house” in front of the net.

Will the extra size and experience of ASU’s older team prove unbreakable for the Pios? Or will one of the best coaches in the sport find an adjustment and bring home a win?

Across the bracket in the Western Michigan-North Dakota match-up, the Broncos have a comfortable advantage and should be able to take care of business against a team they won 3 of 4 against in the regular season.

Their offense has the potential to overwhelm a North Dakota team that’s had trouble slowing opponents down this year, especially considering WMU’s goaltending advantage over journeyman TJ Semptimphelter.

Focusing on the most likely finals match-up that would have tournament field implications: if Arizona State plays Western Michigan for the title, they will have their work cut out for them.

The Broncos are the best team in the NCHC, and for a team that scores a lot but also doesn’t have the same elite defense some other contenders do, the Broncos’ goaltending could prove problematic for the Sun Devil regardless of who starts.

My heart says Arizona State does it and earns the auto-bid, but my gut says Denver or Western Michigan do what favorites are supposed to do and one of them wins.

The Northeastern Huskies are in Survive and Advance mode.

Everyone else remaining in Hockey East is safely in a tournament spot, while the Huskies’ underwhelming season has them fighting to stay alive.

Maine is a tough match-up for Northeastern, who struggled against heavy forechecking teams in Hockey East this year such as the Black Bears or UConn Huskies.

I’m not enough of a hockey doctor to diagnose this, but Northeastern has some very skilled defensemen such as Vinny Borgesi, Joaquim Lemay, and Jackson Dorrington, so if they can get comfortable with the puck in their end, they may be able to out-calm Maine’s feverish pace without the puck.

The Huskies’ best shot at a win here is to outgun the Black Bears, who are just 2-6-1 in games where their opponents score 3 or more goals. That’s not a record in something meaningless like a record in “games on days that don’t end in y” — teams score 3 goals a lot.

Northeastern’s best shot at getting on the right side of this trend is for their first line to play as well as they have all year.

The Huskies’ top line of Cam Lund, Jack Williams, and Dylan Hryckowian are all Top 15 in Forward SPAM this season, and it’s because they’re baring a ginormous load on offense for a struggling team. They’ve earned 50% of the Huskies points on this playoff run, and with such tight margins, they’ll need to keep it up.

On the other side of the bracket, BU and UConn face off with NCAA tournament seeding implications on the line. I love Mikhail Yegorov’s impact on the Terriers since coming on earlier this season, and in the team’s biggest games this year he has been a well-oiled machine. I expect more of the same here, especially given TD Garden is a familiar venue for him.

If everything goes chalk and Maine meets BU in the final, it will be a rematch of an emotional series where Maine took 4 of 6 points. The Terriers are all-around a better group than they were in November, so they could flip the result in a final game, but they’ll need to stay disciplined — something they did not do in the first 2 meetings.

The other possible final match-ups (Maine vs UConn, BU vs Northeastern) each have their intrigue as well. The former would be a great style clash, while the latter would be a compelling rivalry game on a familiar sheet of ice for each team.

Holy Cross and Bentley will fight for the presumed #16 spot and last #4 seed in the NCAA tournament on Saturday night in front of a sold-out barn.

Holy Cross is the favorite, but Bentley is also a formidable foe, having one of the top defenses in the country by the traditional numbers, xG, and SPAM.

I will not lie to you… I haven’t seen too much of either team this season. FloHockey is just out of my budget. But in the limited action and highlights I have seen, Holy Cross’ Liam McLinskey is a certified star in the sport.

McLinskey realistically could have transferred to a number of schools last season but decided to stay and just tear it up at Holy Cross. Against AHA competition, he looks like Leon Draisaitl, with puck skills and offensive poise that his opponents simply cannot keep up with.

His line will likely draw Bentley’s top defenseman Nick Bochen as a match-up throughout the game, which will be exciting to watch as these two in-state rivals fight tooth and nail for a tournament slot.

Side note: which of these teams is better suited to upset Boston College? McLinskey and goaltender Thomas Gale have me tempted to choose Holy Cross… but Bentley’s defensive metrics and their win against Maine build a solid resume as well.

The Michigan State Spartans will take on the Ohio State Buckeyes for the Big Ten title.

Both teams are tournament locks, and the Spartans are virtually guaranteed to be the 2nd #1 seed and play out of Toledo. The Buckeyes are also locked in as a #3.

There’s a trophy on the line and Ohio State could see their seeding move around, potentially changing their opponent from a team like Boston University to a more flawed team like Providence.

From a match-up perspective, Michigan State handled business very well against the Buckeyes, and OSU has struggled against the Big Ten’s elite teams this year.

I’ll keep this one short given its lack of impact on the tournament — but it would be cool to see Ohio State hang a Big Ten banner.

Congratulations to the Minnesota State Mavericks, who qualified for the NCAA tournament when they won the CCHA Semi-Finals against Bemidji State.

Because St. Thomas is ineligible to earn an auto-bid, they were able to do this as soon as St. Thomas won their game on Saturday.

MSU is in a higher tier than UST and should win this on the back of Richter Candidate Alex Tracy — but if they don’t, it won’t cost them much as they’ll likely play against Boston College, Michigan State, Maine, or Minnesota next week.

Early next week, you’ll hear from me with access to my NCAA Tournament guide and the final stages of our Pick ‘Em contest. I’m very excited to share both with you, as the first has been a long time in the making, and the second will be a fun way to end the season together.

I’m not sure what the newsletter’s cadence will be during the tournament — but I’ll at least be discussing each regional and the eventual Frozen Four.