Holy Toledo | Toledo Regional Preview

I’m delighted to let you know that there will be hockey on during the workday this Thursday. Isn’t that a treat? Let’s talk about it.

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The back-to-back Big Ten champs are looking to have a happier ending than they did last year when rival Michigan struck them down in an Easter Sunday rivalry game.

There’s nothing the Spartans haven’t done or don’t have. Their schedule in the Big Ten was difficult, they played tough non-conference games against #1 Boston College and #4 Western Michigan, and they have a Hobey Baker finalist (Isaac Howard) and Mike Richter contender (Trey Augustine) as well.

Offensively, Howard will be the main topic of conversation for this team, and for good reason. “The Ice Man” became a household name after his bold draft day outfit, and this year has chummed the water for prospect-starved Tampa Bay fans with a wicked shot and offensive intelligence.

Beyond Howard, depth is a strength. Down to their 4th line, MSU has players capable of generating offense. My personal favorite: Shane Vansaghi. The NTDP freshman plays a nice hybrid power-scoring game, and although he’s had limited minutes, he’s averaging around a half-point per game.

This depth is similar on defense, which is led by Slovakian-national Maxim Strbak and Colorado College grad transfer Nicklas Andrews. David Gucciardi and Matt Basgall also are having strong seasons. The group is sturdy, and makes the most important man in their recipe’s job a little easier.

That man I’m talking about: Trey Augustine, who at 20 is already one of the most accomplished goalies in USA Hockey history.

Augustine’s play this season has been solid, and after so much international success so early in his career, he’s become college hockey’s “name brand” in the net. His numbers may not be as impressive as Jacob Fowler or Alex Tracy, however, his success in big games for USA Hockey makes him hard to ignore on the biggest stage the NCAA has to offer.

It’s been a roller coaster year for Boston University. The question is… are they surging down or climbing up?

They began the year with the burden of high expectations and then squandered them with a 5-5-1 stretch through the first 5 weeks. Things never really looked up, as then-starting goaltender Mathieu Caron appeared to struggle early on.

This all changed once Mikhail Yegorov appeared on campus, like an angelic figure to provide salvation for the Terriers. The Russian freshman is having a can’t-miss campaign, with a .971 save percentage in the Beanpot as the feather in his cap.

One small issue, Yegorov and the Boston University defense have both proven to be volatile, creating situations even their strong offense struggles to keep up with.

This isn’t because of a lack of talent, but more so construction. The BU defense is in a transition right now, having turned over all but one of their Top 4 from last year, Tom Willander. It is hard for them to keep the gas pedal to the floor on offense without some growing pains, but in the short term, this could cost them (as it did in the Hockey East tournament).

Cole Hutson is easily their best defenseman, largely because of his ability to move the puck up the ice or make his own offense. He’s not as quirky of a skater as his brother Lane is, but his vision with the puck and hands make him a danger in transition or at the point.

Their forward group is led by another Hutson, Quinn, who is supported by a Top 6 that has garnered a lot of attention this year. They have a very diverse group of players to rely on for offense, which has made them fun to watch.

Shane LaChance brings physicality, Quinn Hutson dominates with finesse, Cole Eiserman shines when the lights are bright, and Ryan Greene is a prototypical all-around center you can trust to lead your team and play big minutes on both ends.

The surprise team of the year? Possibly!

The Ohio State Buckeyes have made it this far through great systems play, scoring depth, and leadership from Northeastern transfer Gunnarwolfe Fontaine.

At forward, the Buckeyes have a top line of Fontaine, UAA transfer Riley Thompson, and Davis Burnside that drives the engine while a solid middle-six provides any necessary secondary scoring punch. They don’t have a true “star” in the sense we would talk about Ryan Leonard or Jimmy Snuggerud, but they play a very coordinated offense that leads to some great shots off the pass, and seamless forechecking.

The defense is led by UNH transfer Damien Carfagna, who has become a great quarterback from the point in his two seconds in Columbus. Talent-wise, this group isn’t exceptional, but its staunch commitment to systems that slow opposing teams down in transition and rock-solid positioning have made them scary.

The team played with a tandem in goal for a chunk of the year, but seems to have given Logan Terness the nod to start for the remainder of the season. This is for good reason, as the senior has only given up more than 3 goals in regulation once (against the highly-potent Minnesota offense).

Cornell started off this season receiving first-place USCHO votes, but once the season began they had a few too many slip-ups in conference play and had to win the ECAC tournament in order to qualify.

They did it, and now coach Mike Schafer gets a storybook ending to his tenure at the helm of the Big Red, regardless of what happens next.

Cornell’s offense is led by Ryan Walsh and Dalton Bancroft, with Bancroft rolling into the NCAA tournament on a hot streak. He has a wicked shot in stride, the hands to make his own space, and experience playing in the NCAA tournament, as the Big Red are making their third total trip in his 3-year tenure.

On defense, Cornell has been getting beaten more than they hope or design their system for, but their group still should be able to give Michigan State a challenge. Senior Tim Rego leads the team in transition, while Ben Robertson slots into more of a shutdown role. The challenge: what does shutdown hockey look like when the best player on the other team is Isaac Howard?

Ian Shane will likely start. He was a Mike Richter Award candidate to open up the year, but really struggled once the season got going. His game log is full of spots where he was pulled after a rough start, but has a GAA of just 1.00 and a Goals Saved Above Expected of 7.41 in 4 tracked starts since March began — so anything can happen for the Big Red if he stays hot.

#2 Michigan State should be able to trounce #17 Cornell according to all conventional models, but the Big Red’s strong defensive systems and a hot Ian Shane could make this really interesting. There are no cupcakes in the first round in college hockey, and this game is a classic example of why.

Cornell has also punched above their weight in their last two trips to regionals, knocking off Denver in Manchester in 2023, and Maine in Springfield last year. I’m not predicting an upset — but if there was a bracket buster on Day 1, this is where it would be.

#7 Boston University and #10 Ohio State is going to be very red, and very anxious. Both teams are beatable, but both teams also have aspirations beyond this round because of what they’ve shown they can do this season.

The x-factor will be Mikhail Yegorov — if he comes out how he did against UConn at the Hockey East tournament, the Terriers will have plenty of time to explore Toledo on the weekend. If he stays sharp like he did at the Beanpot, Southwest will need to add more flights to St. Louis from Logan in April.

Side note: Gunnarwolfe Fontaine was a BU killer in his time at Northeastern. Can he deliver one last masterclass?

Michigan State and Ohio State would be a rematch of the most recent Big Ten championship thriller, but it’s been clear in each of these games that the Spartans have a talent advantage that may be too much for the Buckeyes to make up. This would be a super exciting game, with Toledo being right on the border of the two states.

If everything goes chalk and BU plays MSU, I’ll be really interested to see how the BU defense can hold up against the Spartans’ depth. Their young group has gotten better as the year has gone on, but the only team as talented as MSU that BU’s played this year was BC — who they went 1-2 against.

Any final with Cornell in it would be fun to watch, and you sort of have to throw any conventional wisdom out if they beat Michigan State. They’d be at a disadvantage against BU or OSU as well, but slightly less pronounced, and with each potential opponent having a trait that could fall in the Big Red’s favor (BU’s defensive inconsistency and Ohio State’s emphasis on gaining the zone to generate offense).

The winner of this regional will square off with the winner of Allentown, who would most likely be Maine or UConn.

My model really likes this regional, and gives it a 28.7% chance of producing a national champion.

This is largely in part because its two favorites, Michigan State and Boston University, each have an offense near the top of the nation, and since Mikhail Yegorov arrived on Comm Ave, a high-end goalie as well.

Whoever survives this group will have already beaten a national championship-caliber team, needing to run through MSU or BU, so they’ll be easy to back come April.

Video Sources:

• Isaac Howard goal: Big Ten Network

• Mikhail Yegorov saves: InStat

• Gunnarwolfe Fontaine goal: InStat

• Dalton Bancroft goal: InStat