Bubbles, About to Pop | Week #22 Preview

Here in Boston, we’re enjoying one of the 17 seasons, False Start Spring, where we all pretend 50 degrees is warm. This is fitting since it might feel like the season is heating up… but we’re just getting started.

Pressed for time? Click here to skip to the Pick ‘Em.

Look — I’m not going to try and sell you too hard on St. Cloud State.

They’re mathematically out of the at-large tournament bid race, and just went two months without winning a hockey game.

But they’re safely in the NCHC playoffs, and Isak Posch returned from his freak injury involving a toilet repair this winter.

Can they foray their win against fellow NCHC underperformer Colorado College into a win streak against Denver? Maybe!

They have an elite goalie, two WJC Gold Medal winners, a good coach, and some strong early season results against BC and Michigan (actual good teams).

TL;DR — if they can get some positive momentum here, they’re a (very) dark horse pick to contend for an NCHC title on the back of good goaltending.

Odds are that the ECAC is a 1-bid, maybe 2-bid league this year.

If it’s Quinnipiac, they’ll likely auto-qualify based on a conference title, but their pairwise rank would mean that no one in the field gets their bid stolen.

If it’s Clarkson, Cornell, Colgate, or any other fringe ECAC contender, it will have to be via conference title — and they’ll probably steal a bid from a team ranked #14, #15, or #16 in the field.

This game is important because it sets the table for the race between two teams who may very well meet again in the playoffs.

If Quinnipiac wins, they clinch the #1 seed going into the ECAC playoffs. If Clarkson wins then Quinnipiac loses on Saturday, the Golden Knights will be just a win against Princeton away from the regular season title.

A Clarkson win can also bring them closer to the true pairwise cutline while dragging Quinnipiac down to it as well. Considering that just .0148 RPI points separate #11 Michigan from #17 Minnesota State, this could be a big deal.

There is no room for error in this group of 6 teams, and one misstep could drop a team out of safety — and for the ECAC and CCHA teams involved, falling down but still earning an auto-bid could rob a Big Ten, Hockey East, or NCHC team of their spot.

Another Battle On the Bubble, where we’ll see the Minutemen and Riverhawks throwdown for one of my favorite rivalries in Hockey East.

UMass kicked off this season looking rather beatable in this post-Ufko-and-Morrow world, but since the new year, they’ve gone 9-5-1 with wins against #1 Boston College, and Top 10 UConn.

Surprisingly, WJC standout goalie Michael Hrabal has looked somewhat human, but fellow European imports Aydar Suniev and Lucas Olvestad have had strong years alongside a handful of upperclassmen like Jack Musa and Cole O’Hara, making Hrabal’s job in net easier.

Lowell is winning like Lowell wants to win — tight games, where their defensive prowess and physicality reign supreme.

The Riverhawks don’t have a single scorer with 20 or more points (the Minutemen have 6), and games they’re part of average 5.26 goals per game — almost half a goal below the league average of 5.72.

If the Riverhawks can drag the Minutemen into a low-scoring rock fight, this will be advantageous for them. Lowell is 7-4 in 1-goal games, and UMass is just 3-12-3 in games where they score 3 times or less — but undefeated in games where they score 4 times or more.

Whoever takes control and sets the pace here will have the best chance at a win, which will be crucial for their Hockey East tournament seeding (both teams can earn either a 1st Round Bye or a 1st Round Home Game) and more importantly, their pairwise tournament hopes.

Both of these teams are smack dab in the middle of the #11 through #17 group I outlined above, so they’re barely separated.

CHN has their tournament chances at a coin flip right now (see this very cool tool), and it’s not hard to imagine a world where there’s only enough room on the life raft for one of these teams.

The Shoe will be packed this weekend, and there’s a late-season game where the Wolverines and Buckeyes tournament hopes and pride could be crushed.

Of course, we’re talking about hockey not football, because the NHL Stadium Series and Michigan - Ohio State hockey (kind of a) rivalry are in Columbus.

This series is pretty damn close to dead even, with the model putting each game at a (slightly skewed) coin flip. But for the first time in a long time, Ohio State has the upper hand.

The underlying numbers go their way and by quite a lot, but somehow, the Wolverines are just one spot behind in the USCHO poll and Pairwise.

The best way I can describe the dynamic between these two teams this year is: Michigan has a lower floor but a higher ceiling, and Ohio State has been much more consistent from week to week.

Both teams love to work the puck in the zone, focusing their efforts on making plays off the forecheck. This leads to some pretty passing plays and extended offensive zone time, where experienced forward groups wreak havoc on goalies.

The differences between these two teams begin without the puck though.

Ohio State tends to hold back, falling into a neutral zone formation focused on clogging high-traffic lanes and taking away space. This is a low-risk approach, often visible as a 1-1-3 or 1-3-1 forecheck in transition.

Michigan plays with much more emphasis on breaking a play up early, and keeping the puck where they had it. This is most clear when their defensemen pinch at the bluelines as part of a 2-3 forecheck, trying to break up a clearing effort with a hit or puck carrier getting pinned at the blue line.

So far the season series is a split — so a team would need a sweep to claim season-long dominance over the other.

If it’s a split, we’ll see if someone can nose forward in a potential playoff series. If Michigan sweeps, it’s just another year where they can little brother Ohio State hockey, and downplay any rivalry in hockey (but if you heard Zach Werenski on What Chaos!, you would know this isn’t entirely true).

But if Ohio State gets a sweep (and there’s no Revenge of the Blue in the playoffs), they can put a stamp on this great season as one where they beat their rival, and hopefully stoke the flames on a series that’s been somewhat dormant.

An Ohio State sweep can also make Michigan’s path to the tournament much more difficult — right now the Wolverines can rank as high as 3rd in the tournament, but they also could fall as low as 19th!