We’ve made it to the Frozen Four, with just one Top 4 seed surviving their regional — which is made especially unique, as it was the overall #4 seed, Western Michigan.
In case you are just tuning in for this last set of games, here is how everyone got here:
#4 Western Michigan won two nailbiters, the first against #14 Minnesota State, who took them to overtime on the back of elite goaltender Alex Tracy.
They may have been eliminated in their next game against #11 UMass, had they not ended up on the right side of a controversial major penalty call, where the Broncos netted 2 powerplay goals.
All in all, these were gutsy, impressive wins for a Bronco team that has been on a roll since the beginning of March. To make this more special, this is their first trip to the Frozen Four.
#7 Boston University trounced #10 Ohio State to kick off tournament action, but it was a tale of two teams. The Terriers started off looking quite out of sorts, aside from Mikhail Yegorov, who stopped 14 of 15 in the first to keep the game in reach.
The team rallied around their freshman goaltender, outscoring the Buckeyes 8-2 in the next 40 minutes of hockey, and then the Terriers met a surging Cornell Big Red team in the Round of 8.
The Hutson family delivered late-game heroics in a 3-2 win, punching a ticket to a 3rd consecutive Frozen Four for Jay Pandolfo’s team.
#9 Denver has a chance to defend their crown after beating two New England teams in the New Hampshire regional. The first win was a shellacking of #9 Providence, and the second was an eerily familiar win over #1 Boston College where BC’s elite offense went cold against Matt Davis and David Carle’s coaching.
In both games, Denver’s cornucopia of high-end talent shined. Defenseman Zeev Buium made a last-second case for the Hobey Baker award and the Pioneers’ top-line controlled play with eye-popping passing.
This could be Denver’s 3rd national title in just 4 years — cementing them as a modern-day dynasty, and giving them a stranglehold on the all-time leaderboard.
#13 Penn State is new to the big dance, making their first trip after dominating the #3 Maine Black Bears and knocking off #6 UConn near home at the Allentown Regional.
Victory lap time: my model had Penn State pulling off both of these upsets and earning this spot in St. Louis — my model wasn’t perfect by any means, but cases like this are why we use data in sports. Sometimes the big surprises aren’t surprising at all!
The Nittany Lions have an impressive Top 6 led by Aidan Fink, and UConn transfer Arsenii Sergeev is a solid option in net.
Thursday will kick-off when Denver and Western Michigan meet for an NCHC finals rematch, and it should be an exciting affair.
The last time these two teams met was a 3-goal comeback for the Broncos, who won in overtime on heroics from Alex Bump.
From an Xs and Os perspective, I will be keeping an eye on how the Broncos play against the Pioneers’ top line of Aidan Thompson, Carter King, and Jack Devine.
This specific match-up matters to me because in 3 games this season, the Broncos held this elite group to just 2 secondary assists and 1 3v3 goal.
Considering Thompson and Devine are 1st and 2nd in national scoring… this is a pretty big deal. Digging into some tape, why is this happening?
My hypothesis: man-to-man defense.
The Denver Pioneers are amazing at picking apart bad coverage in the offensive zone, but if you watch that clip, Thompson and Devine both are immediately covered and find themselves in a much harder situation to get open and create a pass.
Should the Broncos limit this line’s offense again, it will far from guarantee a win as the Pios have elite depth and Zeev Buium, but it will greatly improve their chances. Get your popcorn ready!
The nightcap is Boston University against Penn State, where one team looks to overcome their Frozen Four demons, while the other will let house money ride.
I am fascinated by this match-up because Penn State plays into one of BU’s greatest strengths… but also looks poised to expose one of its weaknesses.
Good for BU: the Nittany Lions play in very high-scoring games — with only RPI and BU averaging more total goals per game (GF + GA). This matters for the Terriers, because when they score 4 or more goals, they are 18-1-1.
Good for Penn State: the Nittany Lions are one of the better forechecking and puck-battling groups in the country, which is a type of team that the Terriers have struggled against. Against Maine and UConn who also run a similar 2-deep forecheck, the Terriers were just 1-2-2, a far cry from their season-long win percentage.
Both teams have also found a new identity in the new year, with Penn State going 16-4-4 and BU going 15-6-1 since the calendar flipped over.
My x-factor for this game: goalies.
Mikhail Yegorov (BU) and Arsenii Sergeev (Penn State) give us a Russian vs Russian match-up that is pretty unique in college hockey.
This isn’t a hot take, but Yegorov is better than Sergeev. If he was on campus in October, he would very likely be in the Mike Richter conversation. He without a doubt, saved BU’s season — reenergizing an underperforming team that seemed like it was taking a natural step back after losing two Hobey-caliber players.
That being said… he is a freshman… and sometimes it shows.
He has had 3 games I would label as stinkers (if his save percentage dips below mine in a game, that’s a stinker), including one at TD Garden against UConn that cost BU their chance at a perfect sweep of every tournament they participated in this year.
He will need to be absolutely razor-sharp for the Terriers in case this game turns into firewagon hockey, which it very likely will given the fact that each team is near the top of the nation in scoring.
It is not as if his rival Sergeev is an unbeatable wall, he also has a few “stinkers” on his game log (should I make this my next analytic?), so he will need to be sharp, however, Penn State is less dependent on Sergeev than BU is on Yegorov.
The Terriers are 0-3 in games where “Big Mike” has a Save Percentage below .900, while the Nittany Lions are still a respectable 5-5-1 in games where Sergeev’s numbers dip below the same benchmark.
My gut tells me this won’t be a problem for either team, as they have both been dialed in since the puck dropped on the tournament, but it’s something to keep an eye on — especially with two blink-and-you-miss-it offenses.
I’m not going to try and predict what the final might look like for each possible match-up like I did for the regionals, I’ll just be back Friday night with an emergency blog trying to get a read on what we see Thursday.
These games are really fun match-ups, and it’s going to be a great night of hockey.
Video Sources
WMU Hockey on X
BU Hockey on X
DU Hockey on X
PSU Hockey on X
InStat
Boston Hockey Blog on X
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