One More Saturday Night | Title Game Emergency Blog

As everyone predicted, a Boston school plays a Michigan school in the final.

It just so happens to be one slightly east and one slightly west of where we all expected, respectively.

In case you weren’t able to catch the games on Thursday, here is how we got here.

#4 Western Michigan came dangerously close to blowing a 2-0 lead against the (at the time) reigning national champion #9 Denver Pioneers, but they held strong and came out on top in the second overtime.

All in all, this was an impressive defensive effort from the Broncos, who managed to limit Denver’s elite offensive talent once again. They held their top line to just 1 point, and kept their focus even when many lesser teams would have folded in overtime.

#7 Boston University was in the driver’s seat and really never felt like they were out of it in a deceivingly close game against Penn State. After a critical error from Arsenii Sergeev, the Terriers lept out to a 2-0 lead and this was enough, as they won 3-1.

Their entire group of blue-chip freshmen was impressive, but Mikhail Yegorov was by far the star, putting up a gaudy .970 Save Percentage on 33 shots.

Two great offenses, two hot defenses, and a goalie duel. Exciting!

The Terriers have one of the best offenses in the country, and since hitting the reset button on their season around the time of the Beanpot, things have been on auto-pilot for a group that once fell to the USCHO bubble.

Their offense is great — but now their defense and goaltending are catching up. Some of this is getting a new, A+ grade goaltender, but a lot of it comes from their younger players settling into their roles and learning their system.

Is the next Rod Langway walking through that door? No. But are they making life easier for their goalie, forwards, and Jay Pandolfo’s cardiologist? Yes.

On the other side, the Broncos have a potent offense, but their defense is by far their calling card since the beginning of the NCAA tournament. They’ve given up just 4 goals in 3 games and had they given up any more they likely wouldn’t be here, as all but 1 of their games have gone to OT (a 2-1 Regional Final win over UMass).

I was really impressed by how they played against a Denver team that looked like a Death Star warming up to destroy a planet at the Manchester Regional.

Their tight neutral zone play and man-to-man defense in the zone took complete control of the game for 50 minutes, and after 2 mistakes that caused a slight panic, was otherwise perfect through 2 OT periods.

At their best, the Broncos were in complete control of the game against one of the most talented but also most experienced and battle-tested groups in the country.

So this begs two questions:

• Can the Broncos shut down yet another elite offense?

• If they do, can the Terriers’ goaltending and defense slow down WMU enough that BU can still win it?

The model has BU winning, which is largely in part because of its extraordinary praise for Mikhail Yegorov (so yes on Question #2) and slightly lower evaluation of Hampton Slukynsky (and no on Question #1).

If each goalie was set to have the same impact on the game, BU would go down to roughly a 53/47 favorite — and given the smaller sample size for each of these netminders as they’ve each played less than 25 games, they could very well be much closer than my model estimates them to be.

The sportsbooks seem to have this game as a Pick ‘Em, which I think is fair. To borrow a term from soccer, they’re both “in excellent form”, and there is no discernable home-ice advantage given the tournament’s location.

I have tried to avoid saying what I think is going to happen in more recent editions of this blog, instead opting for why certain outcomes could be. This is also much more convenient on a day like today, when I truly have no clue what’s going to happen.

My gut is pulling me in a different direction every time I think about it. Does WMU’s big moment dominance continue? Can Yegorov steal another trophy for this season that once seemed lost? Does BU’s lack of experience cost them?

I really have no clue. That’s why they’re going to play the game. The model’s prediction, everything I wrote here, and everything before today won’t matter one bit at midnight tonight when the confetti has fallen.

Regardless, thank you for following me through this exciting college hockey season. I will be in your inbox slightly less often after today — but I will be doing my own end-of-season awards (including Pick ‘Em and Tournament contest winners) over the next few weeks.

I have some fun projects planned for this summer, so keep an eye on what’s going on.

Video Sources: whichever Twitter accounts who stole the video from ESPN first.