My rival, show me my rival | Week #17 Preview

It’s an amazing hockey week in Boston! Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith returned as pros, the Huskies won a record-setting Women’s Beanpot, and there were multiple days with cold enough lows that pond hockey is abundant. This will all get capped off with one of college sports’ greatest rivalries facing off.

What a script!

Pressed for time? Click here to skip to the Pick ‘Em.

• 1st: Foppa’s Foot - 45 Points

• 2nd: Me - 44 Points

• 3rd: Tyler The Sea - 40 Points

Check out the full leaderboard here.

This tournament has been around since 2020, and this is the first time Quinnipiac has not entered as the favorite in the rankings.

If you made it this far, I assume you can guess that UConn has jumped them, taking the advantage in the USCHO Poll and Pairwise this year.

Quinnipiac has been good against the ECAC, but things have relatively fallen apart against Hockey East where the opponents are stronger. Maine swept them in a series where the scoreboard made it look closer than it was, and then the Bobcats went 1-2 combined against UNH and Northeastern.

This is QU’s last shot at a non-conference win, and unless Cornell can really make up some ground and the two play in the playoffs, this may be the last shot at a quality win as well.

My player to watch is UConn freshman Callum Tung (.941 Sv%), who has been a revelation since making his NCAA debut against Lowell this past fall. He’s currently splitting time with transfer Tyler Muszelik, so it’s uncertain who will get the shoulder tap this game, but if he plays he can swing the result in UConn’s favor.

Prediction: UConn ends the Bobcats’ reign atop the state

In a game that makes this list solely because it’s part of a tournament, Atlantic Hockey’s best takes on one of the many limping ECAC teams this year.

Sacred Heart is hosting, Sacred Heart is the better team, and Sacred Heart will win the hockey game.

I am interested to see how the Chrome Domes will match up against UConn or Quinnipiac though, as the jump from Atlantic Hockey to these stronger conferences is tough. Could they eek out the tournament win at home? I’m rooting for them.

Cornell is about 10-15 spots below where the world had them in the pre-season, but they’re still alive. I think.

There isn’t an easy explanation, although the entire photo has become more clear as time goes on. Is it the fact Ian Shane went from Richter contender to sub-.900 goalie? Is it the lame-duck coach? Plain bad luck? Who knows. But regardless, they’re here.

If they can get even within the ballpark of the team they look like by Expected Goals numbers or the Xs and Os group they were to open the year, then I am optimistic that they can make a run at the ECAC title belt and maybe be someone’s nightmare match-up in the NCAA tournament.

But before that, they’ll need to settle down and get their house in order.

What better place to do that than at home against your most hated rival?

My imaginary money is on Cornell to get a big win here. Poor shooting and goaltending luck seem to make them look far worse than they are, and something’s gotta give eventually, right?

It's the only set on this week’s Pick ‘Em slate that isn’t explicitly a rivalry series or tournament, but certainly a series with a massive impact on this season.

Minnesota comes in with a high-power offense, respectable defense, and loads of talent. They’re one of the best teams in the country off the rush, and whether you want to look at “real” Goals or Expected Goals, they’re dominating the game.

The Spartans don’t have the same nuclear power on offense, but they live in the same part of the national rankings for every relevant stat except Expected Goals against—which you can put a little less weight in when a team has not 1… but 2 goalies with .930 Save Percentages.

These two teams have met before this year, playing a series where MSU took a win and a tie on the road in Minneapolis. This puts some pressure on the Gophers to get the same or a better result this weekend.

They’re not in danger of missing the tournament, but…

• Finishing in the Top 4 of the Pairwise can earn them a much easier Round 1 tournament match-up and this would be their highest-quality win of the year

• Earning a 1st Round Bye in the Big Ten tournament gives you some extra protection in the pairwise, and guarantees you avoid awkward time-off between Round 1 and the NCAA Tournament. Why does this matter? See Wisconsin last year.

This type of thing is why these games matter, even if you look at the rankings and think everyone is safely in.

On the ice, the style match-up between the Gophers’ high-end rush offense and the Spartans’ defensive group is once again in focus for me. In their series last month, the Gophers scored 4 of their 6 goals on the rush.

This is hardly shutting a team down, but the Gophers scored 2 fewer goals than their average over the season suggested they would’ve. If the Spartans can do this (or better) again at home, they’ll look like national title favorites.

The Gophers don’t need to score a million goals to win, I don’t want it to seem like I’m suggesting that. Their defense is still very good, and by xG it’s better than MSU—they just don’t have Trey Augustine, so the actual results are worse.

But the Gophers have only played 7 1-goal or tie hockey games, and they’re 3-2-2 in these! Compare this to their whole record of 19-5-2.

National titles are won in tight games, and in single elimination, volume offense doesn’t count for anything if it’s not firing on all cylinders in your last game of the season. Then again, I’m sure someone said this about Denver, and they became an entirely different team in the tournament last year… so…

I think this splits, and I think it’s unbelievably entertaining and high-quality hockey.

After how hyped up their meetings were last year, it feels almost… quiet… going into the Green Line Rivalry this trip around the sun.

I’m sure BU is okay with this different feeling, as last year the Eagles’ offense went off for 8 goals across both nights for a sweep.

BU’s defense is tasked with making sure this doesn’t happen again, and things might just be moving in the right direction for them. Last weekend this group kept the UNH Wildcats to just 6.2 xG, and Mathieu Caron chipped in with 2.2 Goals Saved Above Expected.

Can the same be done against the new-look Eagle offense that was capital-D Dangerous against Providence? I’m not certain.

ICYMI: it seems like the Eagles will be rolling with Perreault-Hagens-Stiga and Jellvik-Gasseau-Leonard. Coach Greg Brown tried breaking up the USA line a few months ago to less positive results, but this was before Teddy Stiga truly broke out with really strong games in November.

I said this after the MSU series, but this setup can cover up BC’s weaker scoring depth and also unleash Ryan Leonard to wreak havoc all over the ice. Stiga’s endless toolbox also fits his skilled linemates well, as he can take the lead on things like puck retrieval or lead the forecheck hard.

For BU, they probably can’t shut down BC, so they’ll need to outpace them on offense. If Jacob Fowler isn’t at his very best, I think they have a shot. Their scoring depth is among the best in the country, and their offensive output shows it. They boast 3.9 Goals per Game and 10 players have over .5 Points per Game.

My better judgment says not to predict a sweep here… but I just have such a hard time going against this BC team after they manhandled a Providence team that I consider better than BU. I think the Eagles stay hot and take both.

If this happens BU has up to 3 chances at revenge, with the two teams on a collision course to meet in the Beanpot final, Hockey East playoffs, and possibly at the Manchester Regional if everything falls into place.