We're so back | Week #16 Preview & Pick 'Em

We’re at the part of the season where things are going to go by so unbelievably fast.

In a hurry? Click here to skip to the Pick ‘Em.

Michigan-Michigan State this week. BC-BU next week. Beanpot the next 2 weeks after. Then the Four Nations Face-off at the pro level. Then the end of the regular season where teams will be fighting for their Pairwise Lives. Hockey rocks.

Let’s talk about the now while we have it though.

I was everywhere. Well, not everywhere, but I was busy.

After sending you all my last preview I visited some friends in DC and caught the Army-Navy game. Had the cheapest tickets in the building and almost froze to death, but it was an unforgettable experience.

Shortly later came Christmas, and in between then and now I made it up to Ottawa for the World Juniors. Yes, I was at the gold medal game. Yes, it was awesome. Here I am in the team photo:

Earlier this week after a couple of months of testing, SPAM was released. You have already been seeing it without knowing, as it was how I helped decide key players on the match-up cards.

SPAM is my take on a single-source-of-truth college hockey analytics model. Unlike some contemporaries, it includes “micro stats” like transition data and puck battles. It’s not perfect, but it’s helped me learn a great deal in just a few days.

It’s been a while, here are the rankings in case you need a refresher:

• 1st: Foppa’s Foot (43 Points)

• 2nd: Sean/Me (42 Points)

• 3rd: tylerthesea (37 Points)

View the whole leaderboard here.

Head’s up, we’re at the time of year where I’m going to be looking at the pairwise ranking instead of the polls, so the headers are reflect that.

8:30 PM ET on Friday & 7:00 PM ET on Saturday in St. Cloud

I don’t know if Husky fans expected life on the bubble a few months ago, but after an alleged freak toilet repair accident took out Isak Posch and team momentum slowed, it seems like this is their new reality.

Arizona State’s first year living in the NCHC seems to be going quite well, with their conference schedule lifting them into a tournament spot. They aren’t bulletproof, as evident by the #14 Pairwise ranking, but they are in control of their destiny should they take care of business in the second half.

My eyes are on the match-up between ASU’s #8 ranked offense in the country and St. Cloud’s goaltending situation. Without Posch, St. Cloud’s somewhat porous defense doesn’t have its fire blanket, and ASU’s offense is near the top of the country.

The Huskies are also coming off a slip-up against Minnesota-Duluth, while ASU only just this past weekend saw an 8-game heater snapped at home against North Dakota.

My prediction: this splits, but it’ll be close enough that you wonder if maybe ASU could sweep them in Tempe.

7:00 PM ET on Friday in Durham & 7:00 PM ET on Saturday in Boston

Style clash in Hockey East!

BU’s score-until-you-die offense (and defense) vs UNH’s more sturdy defensive group and exciting transition offense.

I’m very intrigued by the match-up between UNH’s physical, grinding, fast offense and BU’s Top 4 defensemen, who for the most part are offensive-minded. It is going to be a big task for a group that has been average at best this year.

Against a similar Maine offense earlier this season, BU had mixed results giving up 8.3 xG to their own output of 5.3. UNH is not as good as Maine, but they also will play aggressive and this smaller, turn-the-puck-up-the-ice d-group may be challenged by this style of play.

If UNH can dominate on the forecheck as I’m describing, this could be a statement weekend for them, as their only Hockey East wins are over the struggling Northeastern Huskies, and the best team they’ve beaten right now is Quinnipiac.

They’ve played a tough schedule, but it doesn’t get any easier in the second half in a conference where every team is ranked within the Top 27 of the pairwise.

Storyline to watch: per Mike McMahon, Devils 2nd-round goalie prospect Mikhail Yegorov has enrolled at BU. He probably will not play this weekend (or semester), but he could be a break-glass-incase-of-emergency option.

How this can impact this weekend—could this pressure from behind elevate Caron’s game? The fan favorite has struggled so far this season, with a Save Percentage below .900 after a solid but sometimes inconsistent campaign last year.

My prediction: split.

8:00 PM ET on Friday & 7:00 PM ET on Saturday in Minnetonka

Tech needs a sweep to catch up to Minnesota State in the standings this weekend, but these are going to be important points even if the Huskies just earn a split.

Minnesota State is the hardest team to score on in the country so far, with a defense ranking in the Top 10 in xGA combined with Alex Tracy’s Richter-level season.

The Mavericks have given up more the 2 goals just twice since the beginning of November, and at home, they have been undefeated in the same span.

The CCHA isn’t known for its high-flying offenses, so yes, these gaudy defensive metrics may be a little inflated, but I also question whether or not anyone has the necessary firepower to break Mankato’s stride right now. But if someone did, it would be Michigan Tech.

These two teams met in November in Houghton, where box score watchers might look and think that Minnesota State went in and handled Tech somewhat comfortably, as the combined score is 8-3.

I would like to point you to Day 2 of that series though, where Tech outshot Mankato 33-18 and outgenerated them in xG 3.7-2.5.

Of course, against a team with a high-end goaltender this type of result is incredibly frustrating, but perhaps with a little bit more tape on Tracy, the third (or fourth) time will be the charm and the Huskies can steal a win on the road.

My prediction: Mavericks sweep.

7:00 PM ET on Friday in Chestnut Hill & 7:00 PM ET on Saturday in Providence

If one of the sport’s classic rivalries wasn’t set to throw down at the same time, this would be without a doubt, the game of the week.

This is a rematch of a weeknight one-off from earlier this season, where we saw an exciting OT finish that saw a controversial no-goal call followed up by a game-winner where Ryan Leonard showed off freakish coordination.

Providence is one of the few teams that may be able to match BC’s high-end firepower, but they do it differently.

The Eagles come in with one of the best individual lines in the country, but shaky scoring depth. The Friars don’t have a talent like Leonard or Perreault, but their next 3 lines are much more dependable.

Providence has 11 players with more than 0.5 Points per Game, compared to BC’s 6, all of whom are (generally) Top 6 forwards.

So the match-up I’m watching: can the Friar defense anchored by Austen May slow down BC’s top-end players?

They did not when these two teams met in November, as the “USA” line registered every point except for 1 (an Eamon Powell 2nd Assist), so it’s going to be a real challenge.

But if they do, it might help. 4 of the 5 games BC hasn’t won this season have come when the engine behind BC’s top line Ryan Leonard registers a single point or less. They’ve still won a few when he doesn’t though. So good luck.

I predict a split, for what it’s worth.

7:00 PM ET on Friday in Ann Arbor & 7:30 PM ET on Saturday in East Lansing

The last time these two teams met, the Wolverines won 5-2 to knock the Spartans out of the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans return quite a few players from that roster, including stars Isaac Howard, Maxim Strbak, and Trey Augustine.

It won’t get rid of the sting from that loss, and it certainly won’t change the past—but this is the first step to redemption for a Spartan team that looks to go the extra mile on their marathon from East Lansing to St. Louis.

On the ice, MSU has a clear advantage. Their defensive group is also very good, and if you happen to beat them, you’re faced with the daunting task of shooting on one of the best goalies in the country.

Their offense also seems like they may be progressing past “multiple solid lines that can kill you” to “multiple solid lines that can kill you, and oh yeah, Isaac Howard.”

Now—I really like the way Michigan has transitioned into playing the game since losing so much NHL talent this past offseason.

They’re great at establishing control in the zone, and they have a surplus of experience and talent to tap into. Should this team rise to the occasion of this rivalry game, they can keep up with Michigan State when they have the puck.

But I worry that the Wolverine defense and goaltending can’t keep up enough when they don’t have it. An .894 Team Save Percentage and the generally average defensive group aren’t encouraging at all.

I predict a Spartan sweep, but wouldn’t be shocked if Michigan holds their ground at Yost, given the degree of pride in a rivalry like this.