Bring Back The Boston Rag | Week #18 Preview

Lots to talk about this weekend. I won’t waste time (or character count). Let’s start.

Pressed for time? Click here for the Pick ‘Em.

• t-1st: Foppa’s Foot & Sean/me (50 points)

• 3rd: Tyler The Sea (46 points)

• t-4th: eric_my11 & Paul Blart (40 points)

View the whole leaderboard here.

Yes, now that the game cards are in their teenage years weeks they’re experiencing big changes. Instead of being covered in acne and staying in their room all day though, the Game Cards have been redesigned to incorporate spam and visualize team stats with much more detail than before.

In the interest of transparency, the numbers and their changes will be explained across a few blogs over the next few weeks. But in one sentence: SPAM has been recalibrated with the goal of incorporating goalies, visualizing data for teams, and trying to make predictions.

There are two charts: a spider chart visualizing where each team is strong using SPAM team totals, and a pie chart predicting potential outcomes.

The game predictions are a work in progress. It uses SPAM to calculate an expected score of a game, and then this is plugged into Pythagorean Wins.

You’ll notice the odds are a little tighter than KRACH might give some games — I need to do some testing as to the right Pythagorean W/L exponent to use and explore a Strength of Schedule adjuster, but I’m happy with where it is right now.

Heavy emphasis on work in progress. But I think it’s a good visual tool and worth sharing as it receives improvements.

This is an anticipated rematch of one of the best series so far this year!

BC took a shootout win in Lowell and then followed it up with a regulation win via defensive clinic at home. This was made most impressive by the Eagles injury report, as in Game 2, Teddy Stiga filled in on their blueline.

Surely, some of Lowell’s success in these games came from the fact that there was blood in the water because of these injuries, but I wouldn’t write off how difficult of a time they gave BC.

They’re an extremely defensively capable and experienced hockey team — and while I wouldn’t call BC inexperienced — you can tell by the way Lowell plays that their physical development and total miles level the playing field.

I’m going to go a little against the grain here and say Lowell steals this one. They came awful close last time, and this game lives in a very weird place on BC’s schedule, where maybe they might just not be as engaged as usual.

I know that’s all hockey voodoo and not real tangible stuff. But BC has plenty of winning to do this year. I want to see Lowell get a big one like this.

Last weekend the Spartans held the mighty Minnesota Gopher offense to just 6 goals and 4.49 Expected Goals in a win and a tie. They look to continue their dominance in the Big Ten against this season’s surprise contender, Ohio State.

It won’t be easy, as the Buckeyes are very capable of punching above their weight. Their defensive structure, especially in transition where they run a 1-3-1 or 1-1-3 for the majority of the game, allows them to control the pace and keep up with the high-power offenses in their conference.

They’re not impenetrable by any means (they’ve given up big goal totals in 2 games VS Minnesota and Penn State this year) but this is their bread and butter.

The last time these two teams met, Michigan State took both games in East Lansing. They were close affairs, so the Buckeyes must feel optimistic about getting a second chance to knock off the Big Ten’s top dog, especially in their home rink.

One concern I have for the Buckeyes’ upset hopes, is that Michigan State also limits scoring very effectively. Their xGA/G is in the Top 25% of the country, and Trey Augustine’s otherworldly play helps them keep pucks out of the net when they do get through the MSU defense.

Because of this, the Spartans will be perfectly comfortable in a rock fight. As I mentioned before, they’ve taken 2 games of this season series so far, and I expect them to take two more here. But I wouldn’t be surprised if OSU takes one at home.

Storyline to watch for MSU: Captain Red Savage is out for the season. While he isn’t the Spartans’ biggest producer or minutes eater, his leadership and quality middle-six will be missed by this championship-contending team.

It’s kind of funny seeing Wisconsin back up in the rankings after their nightmare start. They’re fortunate to play in a conference with so many chances to earn back quality wins, otherwise their 11-12-3 record would be a death sentence.

The Badgers’ finishing seems to be “progressing to the mean”, as since January 1st, they’ve scored a clip of 4 G/G and 3.53 xG/G. This has been led by Quinn Finley, a sophomore who sports a wicked shot and high motor (video: InStat).

There is plenty more where this clip came from, as since coming back from the dead, the Badger offense has been electric.

They play with so much creativity in the zone, pace in transition, and have talented players who can produce even in one of the sport’s more challenging conferences.

Say… that sounds familiar… maybe like the Minnesota Golden Gophers?

These two teams are going to play 120 minutes (maybe more) of fast-paced, firewagon hockey. It is going to be must-see TV, especially when you sprinkle in the fact that one of the sport’s great rivalries is going to be on display.

Minnesota has the edge on paper given their stronger defense, but right now their stocks are trending downward while the Badgers seem to be moving in a more positive direction.

Given their current trajectories and what we know they’re capable of, I am going to predict that these two teams split. My opinion could be changed though, as I’m especially interested in whether or not Minnesota will give Liam Souliere the crease for both games. If they do, I could see them sweeping.

Fun fact: in the Coen Brothers’ classic Fargo, Steve Buscemi’s character is shown watching an 80s edition of this rivalry on TV. Oh jeez.

BU is coming off a sweep at the hands of their biggest rival… but one has to think there is reason for optimism on the eastern part of Comm Ave.

They played extremely hard this past weekend and empty net goals make the box scores look quite a bit worse than they were. Plus… they may have their hands on a stud goaltender.

Mikhail Yegorov was great at absolutely everything except for following rules on Saturday night, and if he keeps moving forward in his presumptive starts this Friday and Monday, the Terriers may find a second life.

There is work to be done by their defense group, which is missing true shutdown talent, but if they can tighten things up and Yegorov can steal some saves, then they will have reason for optimism.

BU should realistically win this game without any problem, as Harvard will be outgunned on offense and without a strong enough defense to slow the Terriers down.

Northeastern can’t seem to buy a win this year. BC is so good their stars took a month off to win a completely separate tournament. But… Beanpot Magic.

Now, it’s worth mentioning that Northeastern beat BC earlier this season in an exciting game at Matthews Arena. They’re capable of great things when they play a polished 60 minutes.

How often is that happening? Well, this is another question.

The Huskies have found themselves playing from behind very often this year, and when they don’t score first, they’re 3-9-1. Compare this to BC, who even when getting hit first, is 4-2-1.

In their win against the Eagles in November, the Huskies scored two goals to open up the game and held BC’s Big 3 to just one point. The first will be hard to replicate, but one wonders if they could do the latter again.

It would involve some heavy ice time from their defensive pillars Vinny Borgesi and Jackson Dorrington and another classic Beanpot performance from Cameron Whitehead — but never say never.

If the defense does its part, Cam Lund, Jack Williams, and Dylan Hryckowian will also need to show up big. They make up 61% of the team’s goal-scoring, with no sign of this changing, aside from Freshman Joe Connor heating up.

I really love Northeastern, but I have a lot of respect for how great BC has been, especially considering their NCAA-leading strength of schedule. I predict that the Eagles will win their first Beanpot game since 2019… and possibly win the whole tournament, avoiding the Beanpot Curse.

Plugging potential finals match-ups into the prediction machine, here is what we get. I’m not sure you needed math to figure out that BC and BU are the favorites.

I would love for the Huskies to pull off a second three-peat (having just done so on the women’s side), but the odds are against them. Even if they do make it through to the 2nd round, there’s about a 68% chance BU is waiting for them, who I give a 63% chance of winning this year’s edition of “The Dogfight”.

I don’t really subscribe to the “it’s hard to beat a team X times in a season” philosophy… but I do believe that getting swept by your rival can give you the “eye of the tiger” as Apollo Creed would call it. This would give BU the mental edge in a potential Comm Ave Final, although maybe not a talent edge.

BC is BC. I don’t really know what else to say. They’re a buzzsaw, and it seems like Teddy Stiga’s breakout has really supplemented their scoring depth, allowing Ryan Leonard to move down to the 2nd line. Can anyone in this tournament handle this? I’m not sure — but they also only have to for one game.

Harvard doesn’t really seem like they have it, but it’s still a rebuilding year for them. I’m sure they won’t mind losing too much compared to their peers.

I’m keeping my pick private for now… it would be bad luck to share.