Classic Rivalries & End of Season Races | Week #19 Preview

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I hope you don’t have any plans this weekend—because there are some big games on Friday, Saturday, and Monday. Feel like I’m missing something… probably not important though.

Pressed for time? Click here to skip to the Pick ‘Em.

The Nanooks are on the cusp of locking down this season’s Governor’s Cup, which would be their 19th title and 10th in a row (3 were vacated for NCAA sanctions).

These games have no national title implications, and because of UAA and UAF’s independent status, no conference points on the line—but they’re always exciting affairs with school and local pride on the line.

If any outcome except for a UAA win happens, then UAF takes home the trophy.

But if the Seawolves can win… we will see a tiebreaker shootout after the game, with a chance for UAA to take their first trophy since 2009. Very European Soccer!

My model doesn’t account for potential ties, but should we see a winner decided, there’s a 31% chance it’s UAA. Then in a shootout… who knows?

I’ll be rooting for them, and you should be too.

The times they are a-changin’.

The fall edition of this series rolled around and Denver looked invincible. They had won 23 of their 24 games since March 1st, including a national title as you probably remember. Arizona State was the NCHC newcomer, projected to be cannon fodder for wins 24th and 25th in this stretch.

Now the Sun Devils sit atop the NCHC, and the Pioneers are jockeying for a home playoff game in the middle of the pack.

Denver is higher in the pairwise, which is what really matters, but this coup pulled off by the ASU team NCHC media projected to finish 8th is very impressive, and sets the scene for a high-profile clash in Tempe.

The Pioneers have more talent on paper, and their underlying numbers are much less suspect. There is a very good chance that nature corrects course here and the big-bad blue-blood comes in and dominates.

But this game is going to be a great chance to learn more about where each of these teams stands with under a month left in the regular season.

Is ASU just an average team getting hot at the right time, or a new long-term contender out west? Is Denver ready to defend its title, or is there a serious gap between where they need to be and where they are?

I predict a split, that kickstarts a collision course for both of these teams to meet again in Minneapolis at the NCHC Frozen Faceoff.

It will probably not be a high-scoring affair. It will probably not be the last time these two teams meet. But it will have a great impact on the CCHA’s playoff picture, especially with Augustana’s adjusted schedule.

This is a clash of great defensive teams, and in Josh Kotai and Alex Tracy are both putting up Top 5 seasons by Save Percentage.

Augustana has been better down the stretch, going undefeated since a road loss to Alaska in early December, while Mankato’s play has slipped since Christmas—they’ve lost to Ferris State and Northern Michigan—and they’ll need to prove they’re still the team that went 5-3 in non-con games vs the B1G, NCHC, and HE to open the year.

My model has this dead even with a slight advantage to the Vikings, which I think is fair, but home ice might go a long way to help the Mavericks in such a close series.

And those points might go a long way to deciding who earns the CCHA’s auto bid into the tournament.

Predictably, BC and BU are at the top of Hockey East. But it’s the other Top 5 teams in their rogues gallery that have made this season so compelling.

Maine and Providence were both predicted to race for a Top 4 Hockey East seed and potential tournament spot, and neither have disappointed.

The Black Bears have built on last season despite losing Bradly Nadeau, being led by an outstanding 2nd season in Orono by Bentley transfer Harrison Scott and star goaltender Albin Boija.

Aside from a flukey loss to Bentley, Ben Barr’s squad is undefeated against teams outside the Top 10, and the hard part of their schedule will essentially be over after this road trip. They’ve built their resume, and barring disaster, it will hold them a #1 or #2 seed at the NCAA tournament.

The Friars have been a little behind UMO in terms of output, and since the winter break, they’re just 2-3-2. Their body of work is still good enough to hold them in an NCAA tournament spot, but they need to get things right and get things right fast.

This series leads is followed by a 3 week stretch with 3 games against BU, and 1 game against UMass-Lowell, all of which will be highly important for Hockey East standings and Pairwise rankings.

Match-up-wise, Maine’s playstyle should test the limits of Providence’s defense and goaltending. Maine’s aggressive forecheck and puck battling thrive off pinning teams in the zone—and Providence's defense has been giving up chances at a high rate.

If this was in Orono, I would feel emboldened to put a rubber stamp on a Maine sweep, however, I’m leaning toward a split right now. The Black Bears will be a long way from home, and Providence needs this win in front of their home crowd.

These two teams just met 3 weeks ago, and tensions were high as the teams split, with each team winning their respective home game.

The series opened up looking like it would be a Sparty sweep, as MSU went up early and controlled the 1st period at Yost on Friday night, but the Wolverines clawed back to protect home ice before barely avoiding a blowout the next night in East Lansing.

The Spartans since were tripped once up on the road at Ohio State, but posted wins against the Buckeyes and the Minnesota Golden Gophers to put the Big Ten Regular Season title firmly in their control.

I’m curious to see what kind of factor special teams play in these games, as in their last series, just 4 of the 10 goals came at 5 on 5. This rivalry is known for causing emotions to boil over in all sports, and in the finale of their prior series there were a whopping 68 penalty minutes, totaling up to 13 powerplay opportunities.

If the Wolverines end up on the right side of this (they very much were not last time), then they could level the playing field. Their unit is 3rd in the country at 29.1%, and beating Trey Augustine in net requires all of the help you can get.

Goaltending is MSU’s biggest advantage, but their defensive group also stands out as an area where they outclass their rivals.

They’re not a raw shutdown-first group like you might catch a glimpse of in the Augustana-Mankato series, but they have capable two-way players who keep the puck moving the correct direction, and if they do make a mistake… the deep scoring group can make it up or Trey Augustine will bail them out.

With all of this and what we saw 3 weeks ago in mind, I feel confident that Michigan State will earn a sweep here. The Wolverines are good, but Adam Nightengale’s group is just too strong to be held to a split in this season's series.

It is going to be loud.

Strangers who otherwise would get along fine will look at each other with disgust because of the colors they’re wearing.

Gloves will be thrown high above the plexiglass when the buzzer goes.

I am excited, and hopefully, you are too.

BC is coming in with swagger, having only lost one flukey game since the winter break (Merrimack). This includes a weekend sweep against BU, where the Eagles lit up the Terriers at Agganis and won a close one at home.

Now I would like to tell you a story about the 2010 Winter Olympics—specifically when the United States poured it on against Canada in the Round Robin.

After this game, the host country’s coaching staff took a look at their goaltending situation and thought it was time for a change. Martin Brodeur and his .867 Save Percentage were out… Roberto Luongo was in.

Bobby Lou posted a .927 through the rest of the tournament, including 34 saves against the Americans in one of the greatest gold medal games of all time.

How does this connect to this game? BC chased Mathieu Caron out of the BU lineup for good, and Mikhail Yegorov has been outstanding in his replacement.

The Eagles still have a serious firepower advantage—something Team USA did not in 2010—but their job gets a lot harder when an opposing netminder like Yegorov is in play. He has looked diamond-cutter sharp over the last 2 weeks and is playing with NCAA-leading levels of whimsy. Instant fan favorite!

Of course, having a good goalie and lots of fun only gets you so far. BU will need to make sure their ugly side doesn’t show like it has so many times before this year.

Their penalty troubles continued in a rough opening sequence against Havard this past Monday and their defensive group still lacks a true shutdown presence. This is unhelped by Aiden Celebrini’s recent absence, however, his role was somewhat limited before his injury anyway.

My model gives BU a 27.5% chance of winning here, and it’s hard to imagine BC losing in the form they’re in. But also… single game… biggest rivalry on its biggest stage… BU looking for revenge after 3-consecutive losses…. anything can happen.

Maybe BU and their new goalie can get a storybook ending like the Canadians did.