📈Morning Report - MRNA (We Caught It at $20-30) + Bessent Bond Bailout

Welcome to the morning report, where I go over the setup for the day as it relates to day trading. I’ll review levels using options gamma and show you where the support and resistance lie along with some other proprietary metrics like options skew and my very own Day Trading Bar Score that have good track records for forecasting bullish or bearish tendencies for the day.

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The indexes were registering a tepid bounce until a few minutes ago when the headline hit. Now we are rising and bonds are up 1.3+%.

I said it yesterday, it felt like it had reached fever pitch on the Bonds. We have Google Searches going bonkers for stupid stuff like this.

And this.

So, naturally Scott “The Trader” Bessent had to shake the cages and run the shorts out of the market for a while longer. US Treasuries are starting to form that familiar look of the Japanese Yen, where feckless Central Bankers try to scare traders out of short term-positions, only to draw more (stronger hands) back into the fold with shortable, sharp Bear Market Rallies. Markets are forcing fiscal discipline on Japan and the US.

Keep in mind, just last week we got the Treasury Statement and it spooked the markets. I didn’t cover it last week because I normally don’t worry about it, but now that I look at the chart, it was bad. Really bad.

Look at the Chart. That’s the lowest number in a long time. It means they are spending way, way more than they are taking in due to obviously - the War in Iran (and probably refunding Tariffs too). That’s 10% growth in the deficit in a YEAR. Just a YEAR. So - yeah, it’s bad.

So now it gets interesting. We are now seeing the Government respond to markets here again, only this time it’s not a Trump TACO - it’s a US Treasury TACO.

Just two weeks ago, Bessent released the Treasury Refunding Statement and none of this non-sense this morning was in it. I covered it at the time and noted that Treasury has been saying they are going to do one thing and then doing another, which is pissing off markets.

Treasury is saying they’ll sell X amount of short-dated debt, then selling WAY more than X and commenting that there is no guarantee they won’t increase offerings in the future.

Markets finally twisted the arm of Bessent and he relented. Good job markets! Hold these dude’s feet to the fire and give them consequences for their actions.

Everyone is piling into MRNA now, but we were pounding the table back in February-May of LAST YEAR when it was $20-30. It’s gapping up to $120 today on news their Cancer drugs are kicking butt (that’s a 5-6x return in a little more than a year!). This is what the momentum traders call an “Episodic Pivot” - when news comes out that is not expected. That’s crazy because this one could be seen almost a year ago, a mile away. This was what I wrote back then.

Back then I was absolutely pounding the table on Healthcare and Biotech stocks. You should definitely sell into this strength if you still own some. Let the momentum traders have it.

I even did a free post that outlined the insider buying that was happening at the time. Check it out. That turned out well to say the least.

So how do you find stuff like this? You follow the INSIDERS. Back then, the Founder and CEO Stephan Bancel made his first purchase since he bought the thing before COVID (for those that don’t know, MRNA did the COVID vaccine and was all the rage in 2020-2021). Their CEO made a windfall betting on the stock at that time, and he just made another one with this drug release.

I go through these kinds of setups in the Chat now for Founding Members. We just went through one last night in a beaten down Semi that has extreme potential for a major rally. Insiders with good track records are buying it. I’m going to buy some this morning.