Sports Betting
Volume was relatively lower in the past 2 weeks. There were simply fewer spots to push volume on, which is totally natural and part of the game. It comes in ebbs and flows after all.
Experiment is sitting at $10K → $233K, profiting +$223K. Since there weren’t enough spots to offset bad luck, we had a drawdown. Once more spots came back, we pushed volume through them and we recovered.
After taking time to productize our trading strategies, we better understand the technicalities of executing trades in this market, so we’ve upped bet sizing as well.
Gonna keep the dice rolling.
Stocks
Nothing significant from our datasets in the past week.
We trimmed off GRPN longs by the end of the week. It still sits at a 62% short interest. Roughly +38% on price since entering.
I think META, MSFT, and AMZN are shaping up for sharp bounces. Waiting on a scope print to press the gas on these for 3-4 month calls.
There’s a lot of talk about FIG going to die to Claude Design. The numbers from their latest earnings report have shown that the SaaS-Pocalypse thesis simply does not apply to FIG. NDR continues to grow, and their product releases at their conference Figma Config look to benefit from AI usage spend. The stock looks very interesting in this spot to accumulate shares, especially with a 39% short interest.
Memory is interesting. If Apple gets permission to use ChangXin Memory Technologies, perhaps MU’s 80%+ operating margins are at risk, but I’m no expert.
Crypto
The blockchain is software that enables the movement of money. All applications of it, like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, have no other value proposition.
If you enter this space with less knowledge than incumbent players, you will lose money in the long run. This is true for any type of game with money, but especially true with crypto, because the way the software is designed.
Currently, token prices are all down across the board. And will likely continue to go down. But of course, randomly and unexpectedly, they will go up again. Even though value propositions of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have not changed at all.
It’s a very silly market. Therefore, a very silly thesis applies:
Sounds absolutely retarded, doesn’t it? Crypto participants embrace retarded reasons for prices to go up. They even knowingly buy into scams. Because, since it’s a scam, it’s gonna go up, right?
So this type of thesis is right up their ally. You apply the self-fulfilling prophecy here, and there you have it: likely a Bitcoin bottom around October 2026.
There are a few larger 8-9 figure players I know of that are waiting until the end of the 364D period to start accumulating. We obviously need big-player buying flows to make Bitcoin go up, so it might start around there.
Are people going to front run this thesis? Of course. Will they be successful? I don’t think so, but they could be and it’s worth a try. I’m not going to front run it.
Investor Meetings
It’s been a pleasure to meet some of you from my newsletter and social media. From venture capital to hedge fund backgrounds. It’s always good to get feedback from the market on our work and how we can better position ourselves for future success.
If you’re interested in learning more about us, have any data requests, or a long term partnership, email me.
That’s enough writing for now. Back to making money. We got spots to push volume on tonight, even on Sunday.
Exciting times ahead!
Nik
Founder of Yai Capital
No posts
Comments
Nothing yet. Say the first thing.
Sign in to join the conversation.