Sports Betting
Continuing to press good spots, finding more dislocations, and exploiting bad maker quotes. We started this experiment with $10K on 4/20/26, last week we were at +$114K, and today as of 5/31/26 we are at +$137K. Pretty chill.
We’ve been trying to scale up bet sizing. So far we haven’t found luck in identifying ways to scale it on the order of 5-10x, but we’ve increased average bet size to a few K and pushed more volume through the system, as you can see in the above chart. We’re still looking on how to scale this.
I’ve put more of my own money in this to back the Kelly sizing/bankroll parameters.
I might’ve felt more open before about sharing which markets we’re exploiting, but now I’m realizing that this opportunity is potentially very lucrative and the edge we’ve discovered is now our “IP”. There are a ton of learnings I’ve had, and I’m happy to publish the exact spots I’ve exploited in detail when the alpha is dry. All this progress is on the blockchain anyway, so the whole journey will be verifiable.
As a summary, we buy +EV coin flips and build our own models to identify exploitable maker quotes.
If you want to know more details about our sports betting system, contact me.
Markets
We’ve started to see a slowing in rate of scope prints. We went from a few scope prints a week for the past 2 weeks to only one this week. It might be time to start taking some chips off the table.
Still holding onto the GRPN shares. The social media activist takeover movement is developing more and will take time. Short interest is 56%.
Still holding onto a large META position. Last year we ran the “MAG7 Rotation” trade, and we believe it’s very likely META is next soon.
We long EWY with small size and high leverage on dips. We found this an easier way to play the semiconductor super cycle than chasing and churning through names mentioned on twitter.
There’s a very silly play on r/wallstreetbets with SPCE. People are slamming the bid on it simply because it’s so close in name to SPCX, SpaceX’s upcoming IPO. I may gamble on this, expecting to lose any money I put in.
I’m usually very early with taking chips off the table. But it has generally kept me alive. With the SpaceX IPO on June 12th, BOJ rates on June 15th, and FOMC on June 17th, I expect some volatility ahead.
Crypto
“Horrible market. Vaporware, scams, hacks. All the $ that exists in crypto markets seems to be trading RWA perps on Hyperliquid and other perp exchanges. Liquidity will be drained out of main tokens and go into RWAs.”
The above is the consensus sentiment of the crypto market. Usually when crypto is hated the most opens up the opportunity for it to pump. I absolutely hate longing crypto in this spot, but that may be the very reason it pumps soon.
Continuing to farm the perp dexes for airdrops.
I love sports betting. I thought I’d never get involved with it because I’ve heard people always lose, but duh, that’s exactly why it’s exploitable!
Hoping that the run good continues.
Nik
Founder of Yai Capital
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