F**k Polymarket. Here's why.

Polymarket Scam

There was a $400M market for “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?” And May 31st 2026 is an important date because Strategy released, on June 1st 2026, an official SEC Form 8-K filing which stated they sold 32 Bitcoin as of 4pm ET May 31st, 2026.

The resolution of this market was disputed twice. The final resolution was on Wednesday, June 3rd at 8pm ET. Before this time, crypto twitter was protesting about how this must resolve to a Yes. Even MEXC Predict acknowledged this dispute and went ahead and rewarded Yes holders for being correct.

But Polymarket? Nah. They decided to scam all the Yes holders so that whoever their market making partners are can get paid. Even though MicroStrategy said that they sold.

I bought Yes for $0.003 about 4 hours before the final decision in case Polymarket had a conscious to resolve the market correctly. It would have been a 333x return. After I had bought, a large whale bought $150K worth of Yes and moved the price from $0.003 to $0.008. There’s no way I would have exited early though, I was going to let this position ride the whole way.

Absolutely horrible. My readers on this newsletter are investors and traders, and I share this event with you so that you’re aware of the risks of involving your money with the crypto ecosystem. I honestly tell most people I talk shop with to don’t even bother with crypto. The counterparty risks are substantial, and the blatant scamming is rampant. I haven’t ran sizable investor money in crypto either, for these exact reasons. The industry is just filled with vaporware and dishonesty. It’s gross. Yes, that means there’s opportunity, but at some point it becomes not worth it.

Markets

Markets sneezed on Friday. We had no Scope prints this past week. I don’t think this is a structurally ending sell-off, the uptrend likely continues. We still haven’t seen Market Breadth hit 850+. If we see a Scope print this week, can likely do a decent size on a market long.

Sports Betting

Progress continues, same as talked about in last weekly updates. Sizing up is tough, the PNL curve starts to become a bit too volatile. I ran bad while sized up in the past 2 days, pushed a decent amount of volume too in very good spots. I’m thinking I’d rather play a large amount of volume with small bet sizing, because at this point it’s very obvious that these are +EV bets. We’ll see.

Oh well. Onward we go. We got French Open markets tomorrow, which has extremely emotional flow, and we need to prepare our systems for World Cup.

Just gotta keep going.

Nik

Founder of Yai Capital

nik@yaicapital.com