How much will be spent on political advertising in the 2025-2026 election cycle? Industry research firm AdImpact, which correctly estimated the amount spent in the 2023-2024 cycle, projects that the total in 2025-2026 will be $10.8 billion.
Before you close your browser tab or Substack app and turn away in disgust, I want to remind you about a service I provide to small, Democratic and progressive donors on a budget who want to be able to make as big an impact on the upcoming elections as possible despite the deluge of political spending.
It’s called Bang for Your Buck.
Every two years, I try to find congressional campaigns that meet the following four criteria:
Key swing seats with a high chance of determining which party will control at least one branch of Congress;
Close races where polls show the final result could go either way;
Small states and/or inexpensive media markets where small dollars can have a bigger impact on the outcome;
Strong Democratic candidates with a proven record of outperforming the national ticket, so you know your donation dollars are not being wasted on low-quality campaigns.
With these criteria in mind, right now I have two Bang for Your Buck recommendations for you: Mary Peltola in Alaska and Josh Turek in Iowa, both running for U.S. Senate in 2026.
Peltola and Turek meet all four criteria:
Both are running in elections that are crucial to determining which party controls the U.S. Senate;
Polling in both states shows close races (see Alaska polls and Iowa polls);
Alaska and Iowa are small states (at least in terms of population) with relatively inexpensive media markets;
Mary Peltola and Josh Turek are both strong, highly overperforming candidates. Peltola performed about 10 points better than the national Democratic ticket in 2022 and 2024, while Turek represents the reddest state House district held by any Democrat in Iowa (which he won, and defended, during bad years for Democrats nationally). Your donation will go to effective campaigners who know how to win in red areas.
So, even with $10.8 billion in political advertising expected this election cycle, and even if you only have a small donation budget of maybe $20 per month, by focusing on Mary Peltola for U.S. Senate in Alaska and Josh Turek for U.S. Senate in Iowa, you can still have a relatively big impact on the 2026 elections.
Note: The amounts you give to each entity can be adjusted. Bowers Kerbel Media is the two-person, reader-supported, pro-democracy and pro-Democratic organization that runs Wolves and Sheep and the Bowers News Media news and activism email list.
P.S. A number of people have started asking me about House races. I will have opportunities for you on those after Labor Day.
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