BLUF: Israel’s drawdown in Southern Lebanon is not a retreat—it is a tactical consolidation designed to shift the ground war onto Syrian Islamist forces. If that strategy succeeds, the conflict will enter a far more dangerous phase that risks igniting a wider regional war while deepening the global energy and economic crisis.
Israel appears desperate to reduce its footprint in Southern Lebanon. This is a strange move by Tel Aviv, whose security professionals had repeatedly referred to their mission in Southern Lebanon, ostensibly against Iran-affiliated Shiite militia Hezbollah, as necessary for Israeli security.
Indeed, some Israelis have quietly described their mission set as implementing a “Gaza Model” for Southern Lebanon, emphasizing a strategy of containment and control in the region.
Many Israelis I’ve spoken with have contextualized that claim by describing what they mean as essentially creating a security cordon to their north, highlighting the complex regional tensions involving Hezbollah, Iran, and Syria that should concern the audience.
Of course, the moral implications of that are mortifying (especially for the Lebanese, many of them being Christian, who still live in Southern Lebanon). But that’s the mentality.
Ultimately, though, the Israeli military was unable to achieve its objectives in Southern Lebanon. Hezbollah was too well prepared from a defensive standpoint (and, let’s face it, Israeli military tactics were poor).
So, what is Israel to do? It seems obvious. They must de-escalate and withdraw without appearing to abandon their war, underscoring the persistent threat that remains in the region for the audience.
So, Tel Aviv is consolidating its defensive lines in Southern Lebanon, and the Israeli government has agreed to implement what they’ve dubbed “pilot zones” in southern Lebanon, where Israeli forces would withdraw and hand that territory over to the Lebanese Army (such as it is).
On June 26, Lebanon and Israel came to a “framework agreement,” which will dictate how and when Israeli forces withdraw from southern Lebanon, in exchange for the disarmament of the Iran-backed Shiite militia. Two “pilot zones” are being enacted. If successful, the Israelis intend to further reduce their military footprint.
While no official statement about which specific territories would be included in these “pilot zones” exists , reports indicate that “the towns of Froun, Ghandouriyeh, and Zawtar” would be involved, highlighting the areas of interest.
The Lebanese Army allegedly requested the pilot zones include larger areas that did have Israeli forces within them. Israel has not consented to that. Nevertheless, the Israelis are consolidating their frontline, minimizing the territory along the front into a more defensible beachhead.
In the interregnum, the Israelis will likely continue squeezing the territories of Southern Lebanon they retain to create that “security cordon,” risking regional chaos that could impact global energy and food supplies, which should alarm the audience.
Don’t be mistaken, though.
The Israelis are not abandoning their position in Southern Lebanon. Consolidation and a ceasefire, as we saw with the recent Memorandum of (Mis)understanding between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, do not equal peace.
These measures merely buy time for a Western military alliance that is at the nadir of its power projection and a Western defense industrial base that is breaking down. All these moves are to buy time.
For his part, US President Donald Trump has expressed a degree of exasperation toward Israeli policies. After all, the Israelis goaded the American president into the Iran War clearly predicated upon false (or, at least exaggerated) pretenses.
Once the war with Iran kicked off, however, Israel abandoned their support of the US operations against the Islamic Republic. Instead, it ripped open an entirely new front in Southern Lebanon against Hezbollah.
Speaking with Fox News recently, the forty-seventh US president called for Israel to “redeploy” its forces from Southern Lebanon.
Indeed, Mr. Trump went further by saying that, “Southern Syria [would also] be good to get out [of], I think, and I think you might see things get a little calmer.” Trump said. He then whiffed, “We have to focus our energy on the big leagues. The big leagues are Iran.”
The kicker to Trump’s statements, though, was the calls for the Syrian “President” (a former ISIS battlefield commander who once held the nom de guerre “Al-Jolani” but now calls himself “Ahmad al-Sharaa”) to open a front using his tens of thousands of Islamist militants against Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon, thereby ending the shambolic Israeli military campaign in Southern Lebanon.
To be clear: the US president is calling for the jihadi terrorist fighters who helped propel ‘Syrian President’ Ahmad al-Sharaa-who once held the nom de guerre ‘Al-Jolani’ and was a former ISIS battlefield commander-to be sent into neighboring Lebanon, so that the Sunni Islamists from Syria can wage war upon the Shiite Islamists of Hezbollah.
Given that Jolani/Sharaa’s acceptance into the world order as the legitimate (what a world!) leader of Syria is owed entirely to the Americans and their Turkish (as well as possibly their Israeli) allies, how long do you think Jolani/Sharaa will ignore Trump’s repeated—increasingly demanding—calls for Syria’s terrorist groups to join the fight against Hezbollah?
Come to think of it, the fact that Jolani/Sharaa was on the FBI’s Most Wanted list with a $10 million bounty on his head until a year ago means Jolani/Sharaa actually cannot say “no.” He can drag his feet.
But he’s likely doing so not for ethical reasons. The Syrian Islamist ruler is just doing what all warlords in that part of the world do: drive an incredibly hard bargain for wealthy foreigners.
Consider this: Jolani/Sharaa, if he is even close to serious about actually running Syria, has an Islamist problem of his own. Tens of thousands of jihadists who once marched beneath the black banners of al Qaeda in Syria (Al Nusra Front) and ISIS, who had sworn fealty to Jolani, are now sitting around with little to do.
These guys can’t just become dentists and plumbers. They’re professional terrorists. They will not build a new Syria. They will simply oppress in the name of their religion and terrorist movement.
Jolani/Sharaa needs to cull the herd, if you will. He needs to do that which the Saudi Royal Family did to Usama Bin Laden in the 1980s during the Soviet-Afghan War: lull the most militant hardliners out of the country, to take up jihad,while Jolani/Sharaa consolidates his power in Damascus.
So, Trump’s appeals to send fighters who once marched to jihad with Jolani will be sent into Southern Lebanon. You should have little doubt about that.
It’s simply a question of when.
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