Super Bowl Picks

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BetSaracen Bet of the Week:

BlakeBets- Seahawks/ Patriots Under 45.5 (-110)

This number opened at 46.5 but I like that we’re still getting a key number at 45.5. Both of these teams were top 5 in scoring defense during the regular season (Seattle ranked #1, New England ranked #4). They also get two weeks to scout their opponent which benefits the defense in my opinion. New England plans to have Christian Gonzalez shadow JSN in this matchup, and while you can’t shut him down, Gonzalez should be able to force Darnold to utilize some other receiving options besides the NFL OPOY. For Seattle, I think they’re see a significant advantage with their defensive front against this NE offensive line. As long as we can avoid too many cheap turnovers and defensive touchdowns, I like this one to go under the total. 21-17 Seattle!

WeeklyWagers- Patriots +4.5 (-110)

My head has told me Seahawks in a landslide all week, but my twitter feed makes me think its the Patriots. I say that because all I am seeing is talk about the Patriots joke of a schedule and how they have no shot against this Seahawks defense. And frankly, I fall into this camp. But I also know that in these big standalone games, Vegas rarely loses, and as over 70% of Bets have come in on SEA… the line hasn’t moved.

There are also some interesting trends that show when you get these wide discrepanices between the teams in terms of Strength of Schedule, the team who faced the easier schedule is actually 8-3 SU in the Super Bowl. I respect this Patriot defense enough to think they keep it low scoring like Blake said, and expect Drake Maye to have a good one after not really having to do much in this postseason run.

And while this goes against that pick, I am also sprinkling some on AJ Barner ATD (+240). Patriots are vulnerable against TE’s and if Seattle gets down to the 1 he is their QB sneak guy. Hoping Seattle sees ghosts at the 1 yard line vs the Patriots and opts against throwing the ball.

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