This is forecast post number 999: Day 218 of 2026.
Day 67 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | Still only 2 Named Storms
Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)
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Potential for 2 tropical storms in 7-days across the Tropical Atlantic basin
The 12z forecast of ECMWF HRES shows two tropical waves with low-pressure and circulation sufficient for at least tropical depression or storm classification, but just barely. The Atlantic basin is hostile mainly with dry and stable Saharan Air Layers + dust cutting into the top half of the Main Development Region (MDR).
The relative humidity at 850-700 hPa layer is single digits, but the monsoon trough/ITCZ within which the tropical waves are embedded might be insulated enough from the negative/suppressing influence of SAL.
We’re heading into mid-August —> so overall conditions/environment in MDR improve with climatology, and even the strong wind shear from El Niño won’t wreck the eastern half of the tropical Atlantic basin so much as the shutting down the Gulf and Caribbean.
Atlantic — tropical waves “catch fire” but not as many survive the trip out of the deep tropics. However, there is still moderate chance (50%) of at least one tropical storm out of these, and perhaps 10% overall of a major hurricane in the next 2-weeks. That’s quite an uptick from the “ghost town” we’ve had out here.
Maybe 3+ tropical systems over next 2-weeks in addition to Dolphin
New: Today’s addition to Celsius Earth —> Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) real-time ensemble forecasts from ECMWF.
Fires continue to burn across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies this evening
Tropical Atlantic —> plenty of convection over Florida + wave passing just north of the Bahamas. Huge tropical wave coming off Africa tomorrow.
Beautiful views of the Western Pacific this Friday morning with Typhoon Dolphin and Invest 96W nearing transition into a tropical storm
Typhoon Dolphin (12W) looks very impressive with a compact inner-core and clear eye — certainly major hurricane intensity look on satellite
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A tropical disturbance approaches the eastern coast of Florida to Carolinas into this weekend with plenty of tropical moisture that will move up the East Coast into early next week. No development is expected tropically.
ECMWF HRES | Precipitable Water | My Favorite Parameter | Atlantic Tropics
Saharan Air Layers like giant frontal boundaries sweeping through the Main Development Region with tropical waves to the south in the ITCZ/monsoon trough which is absolutely loaded with tropical moisture.
2 strong tropical waves at lower latitudes moving west but the SAL to the north will work hard against them.
We’re heading into Cape Verde season with tropical waves more robust and conditions in the MDR better even in the face of the El Niño, so we need to monitor everything regardless of the negative background environment.
Flagship model: ECMWF AIFS 18z —> Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days
A hurricane could form out of the ITCZ SE of Hawaii and threaten the islands in 7-10 days.
Multiple robust Atlantic tropical waves enter the picture next week.
Hudson Bay trough gives way to a “heat dome” centered on the Southeast U.S. into August 13-15.
Water Vapor this evening … tough sledding for tropical waves in the central MDR, but we’ll try again tomorrow with a huge convective cluster coming off Africa.
Huge Saharan Dust Layer coming into the Atlantic — image from earlier Thursday
Tropical Waves — Lined up 8 deep from the Eastern Pacific to coast of Africa
2 of the waves in the parade in the Central/Easter Pacific are now marked with 10% to 20% chance of development in next 7-days. None in the Atlantic (yet).
Here’s the Tropical Wave coming off Africa with a massive convective blowup
The warmth in the MDR is quickly expanding to carve into the cool <26°C water from the cold Canary Current, so I think any tropical waves that stay below 20°N latitude will have sufficient warm water to develop.
NASA Dust (GEOS-5) — Saharan Air Layers continue to cruise across the Atlantic doing damage to tropical waves and stabilizing the tropical environment with warmth at lower levels. SAL event swill continue for the next 10-days, but perhaps wane a bit.
Flagship AIFS Integrated Vapor Transport next 10-days —> tropical waves churn westward, and into second week of August, quite a few tropical waves in the MDR that look healthy enough, and we’ll have to watch into next week. I see at least 3 candidates with 2 better chance of survival.
Nothing brewing this evening, but watching 2 areas into this weekend and next week.
Invest 96W forms out of monsoon trough pathway … and will likely landfall northern Japan as a somewhat hybrid system with extratropical characteristics. Should become a Typhoon.
Landfall on Monday at 982 mb
Typhoon Dolphin looks very healthy on the same HAFS-A mesoscale model maps with a major hurricane intensity look.
934 mb … but very large size should keep maximum sustained winds lower than you’d expect at that pressure (radius of maximum wind is HUGE)
JTWC is at 80-knots (still) and shows a slowing speed into China on Sunday
Integrated Vapor Transport from ECMWF AIFS 18z shows evolution of Dolphin into China. Quite a mess of other systems in the Western Pacific, maybe 3-4 more in next 10-days.
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My Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast (2026)
From April 7, 2026: Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: (11/5/2)
9-13 Named Storms (11 most likely)
4-7 Hurricanes (5 or 6 most likely)
1-3 Major Hurricanes (2 most likely)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 75-85 (well below normal)
NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
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