August 26, 2026 Wednesday Evening Tropics

This is forecast post number 1016 — Day 238 of 2026.

Day 87 of Atlantic Hurricane Season | YTD 3 Named Storms, ACE = 3

Author: Dr. Ryan Maue (X @RyanWeather X @weathertrader)

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In the past 6-hours, Invest 96L has blossomed some strong convection presumably over a low-pressure center. This is rather impressive and if it persists, would trigger advisories on Tropical Depression 04L.

NHC has actually decreased the chance of further development to 60%.

• Tropical wave in Eastern Atlantic has (still) not become a tropical depression, yet. NHC at 60% chance as it continues over the very warm waters of the eastern Main Development Region.

• Typhoon Saudel (17W) in the Western Pacific still going at7 5-knots (Cat 1) nearing landfall into China on Thursday — looks impressive with a burst of strong inner-core convection around a ragged eye.

• In the Eastern Pacific, multiple storms including at least 1 hurricane are on the way in the next few days. Overall, we could see another 3-4 named storms in the basin — fueled by El Niño.

Sea Surface Temperatures across the Atlantic Basin (28°C — very warm = red)

Note the 30°C warmth in the Gulf of Mexico — and along the Mexican coast in the Gulf of California — maybe closer to 32°C.

The only notable feature across the entire Atlantic basin is Invest 96L.

You can see more Satellite Imagery at Squall Cloud —> LINK

Invest 96L now at 60% chance of development over next 7-days.