Monday Update 8/03

Maybe it’s just me, but trading has felt easy in spite of the Market Volatility. I will explain with visuals below. In fact, Monday Newsletters are meant to be quick and visual (let the charts speak 🗣️). By now, we should all know it’s the chart we lean on.

Icon Codes (🔁 = swinging, 📰 = Shared in Newsletter 🚨 = Alerted in Discord)

• OWL 0.00%↑ A very strong day with PT Upgrades 🔁 📰 🚨

• ALOY 0.00%↑ 30% since sharing 6 days ago 🔁 📰 🚨

• IWM 0.00%↑ 8 pennies from the 1st target (8/14 Calls went 90%) 🔁 📰 🚨

• PONY 0.00%↑ Confirmed over today 🔁 📰 🚨

• PDD 0.00%↑ Scaled at open; alerted Friday (Up in pre is a sell for me) 🔁 📰 🚨

• PATH 0.00%↑ Gapped up in pre and still confirmed over 🔁 📰 🚨

• CCXI 0.00%↑ Shared last week; alerted today 🔁 📰 🚨

• AIRJ 0.00%↑ Alerted in Discord today 🚨 🔁

Thank you for any ❤️ restacks ♻️, engagement. I’ll put my charts up against anyones.

🚨 Discord Update: Every subscriber will have limited access to the Server (Link). To get full access to the Private Channels, and 🚨s, you’ll need to be a paid subscriber and click here. This is a Sidestack add-on that will actively manage permissions.

I will be sharing a chart below that looks just like this image of the Engulfing Candle below 👇. You won’t have conviction unless you’ve studied similar setups.

IWM with the excellent continuation from the Long Lower Shadows. Reminder, there’s a whole course in here on that. These courses are included in the subscription.

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ALOY 0.00%↑ with the 200 EMA 🧲 move. I’ve been sharing the 10.42 target since sharing last week. It hit 10.46 and retreated. This move lowered my blood pressure 😂.

I’d be absolutely shocked if OWL 0.00%↑ didn’t make this 16% move 👇

“If price is the volume of the stock, VOLUME is how loudly it speaks.” John Mcdowell

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• White Lines = Resistance or Support (Trigger)

• Red Lines = Targets 🎯

• Yellow Lines = Premarket Levels

🗒️ None of my charts are a plan to jump in blindly. They are all binary conditionals; trigger + confirmation + 🎯= 🏆.

• My Plan is shared here

Note: 🎬 = I have no position yet. 🔁 = Newsletter is currently swinging

I can only fit so many charts below. I’ve also included ORCL 0.00%↑ and HIMS 0.00%↑ in Discord. I will use DISCORD to provide current levels on other charts IF news drops. If you’re looking for more charts, check out X (Link).

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Thesis: Falling Wedge Breakout

The stock ripped out of a multi- month descension after earnings

News/Fundamentals

• AXT, Inc. Announces Long-Term Supplier Agreement with Lumentum: A definitive deal locks in Lumentum’s indium phosphide wafer demand through 2031 with $87M in deposits, reinforcing the multi-year runway behind this breakout.

• AXTI Stock Rockets As AI Demand Turns Earnings Into Breakout: The gap was earnings-driven — Q2 EPS of $0.19 crushed the $0.07 estimate on revenue that nearly tripled year over year, and Q3 guidance of roughly $66M blew past Street’s $38.8M

  • Prompting Needham to upgrade to Buy at $90 and Wedbush to reiterate Outperform at $93.

• AXT Sees Highest Quarterly Indium Phosphide Revenue Ever: Indium phosphide revenue hit a record $30.7M with backlog north of $100M, as management flags AI data-center optical demand outrunning current supply.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as $68 support holds (post-breakout reclaim)
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $68 (those with risk tolerance can hold as long as the 200 EMA holds)
🎯 Targets: $88.42 → $110.20 → $129.35 → $143.16
🔁 My personal plan: Calls (9/18 exp, $80 strike)

Thesis: Falling wedge reversal breakout

Remember when this received elevated volume last week? It wasn’t ready then. But, it received more today and looks ready for that sustained move 📈

News/Fundamentals

• Agility Robotics to Go Public Through Merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI: Digit robots are already logging 65,000+ operational hours across nine facilities including Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota and Mercado Libre, with $300M+ in contracted Digit v5 orders backing the merger story.

• Agility Robotics, Churchill XI file draft S-4 for merger: The confidential S-4 submission on July 13 pushes the deal into SEC review, another step toward the ticker flipping to AGLT later this year.

• Churchill Capital Corp XI Surges After Announcing Agility Robotics Merger: The combination brings over $620M in gross proceeds, anchored by a Foxconn-led ~$200M PIPE at $10/share alongside Churchill’s ~$420M trust, funding the Digit v5 production ramp.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as today’s low holds. Breakout > 15.40
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $13.50
🎯 Targets: $16.45 → $17.40 → $19.59
🔁 My personal plan: Commons

Thesis: Breakout coming with volume

The Weekly Chart was shared above. When you look at the Daily Chart, I hope the 200 EMA 🧲 sticks out to you. Look back at the ALOY chart for reference.

The Financial Sector has shown good relative strength

• Blue Owl Capital Second Quarter 2026 Results: AUM hit $319B, a five-fold jump since the IPO five years ago. Growth is what we want, right?

• Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: $60.5B raised in the first half of the year, with the real assets platform up 25% in AUM and diversifying the business well beyond direct lending.

• Blue Owl Declares Quarterly Dividend: $0.23/share declared, payable August 27, steady capital return while the stock works through this base.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as 10.15 support holds
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $10
🎯 Targets: $11.84 (200 EMA) → $13.55
🎬 My personal plan: Commons

Thesis: AI data center water breakout

Shares cleared a year-long downtrend line this week, breaking out of a tightening base on volume running above its recent average and turning a beaten-down chart into a fresh uptrend.

News/Fundamentals

• AirJoule Technologies Deploys AirJoule Core System at GE Vernova’s New Advanced Research Center: The company’s own release frames the AirJoule Core as built for “industrial facilities, data centers, and locations where reliable access to water is constrained” — this is what’s fueling the AI-water-loop narrative.

• Why Did AirJoule Stock Pop Today?: No news dropped today; the pop is continued momentum off last week’s GE Vernova news, w/ investors increasingly pitching AirJoule as an AI play since data centers throw off waste heat that could run the system, (water it produces loops back to cool those same servers.)

• AirJoule and Kubota Announce Exclusive Sales Partnership: A separate exclusive distribution deal with Kubota for water-constrained residential markets shows the commercialization pipeline widening beyond data centers, with pilot units launching in Texas and California this quarter.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as $4.50 support holds
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $4.26
🎯 Targets: $6.00 → $6.75 → $8.30 → $9.31 → $10.39
🔁 My personal plan: Commons

Thesis: Compressing above 20 EMA support

Shoutout to my friend ZaStocks for sharing this one. He is as solid as they come! I did not share this earlier because I’m not seeing volume spikes. However, the volume shelves and 20 EMA support are enough for me.

News/Fundamentals

• HPE Introduces CPU Server with NVIDIA-Vera CPU, Purpose-Built for Agentic AI: The ProLiant Compute DL394 Gen12 line, unveiled at Discover 2026 with multi-node inferencing up to 256 GPUs, is the hardware behind the AI-server demand

• Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co Stock (HPE) Closed Up by 5.25% on Aug 3: Today’s pop traces to surging demand for AI-optimized servers and liquid cooling plus margin expansion from the Juniper Networks integration, with institutional investors responding to a strengthening order backlog.

• HPE Reports Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results: Revenue jumped 40% year over year to $10.7B with Cloud & AI server revenue up 32.7%, and management raised full-year guidance on the back of it.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as $50 support holds
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $44.00
🎯 Targets: $52.91 → $55.99 → $64.25
🔁 My personal plan: Calls (9/4 exp, $50 strike)

Thesis: Volume Spikes + Volume Support + Volume Gap Above = A+

The only crime this committed? It was up in pre on no news. It looks like they’re just not ready to run it yet. All the ingredients are there. This is how I’m handling it 👇.

🚨 Trigger: DCA as long as $12.15 support holds
🛑 Stop: Soft stop — daily close < $12.15
🎯 Targets: $13.90 → $15.50
🎬 My personal plan: Commons

Thesis: Volume Accumulation at Support

📰 Fermi executives are betting the price of the stock will exceed 9.50 and go well into the teens. This is a high conviction setup for me. It all depends on if they can execute. Their recent offering sets them up to have the liquidity to follow through (good read).

⚠️ The risk is higher the closer this gets to 8/13 Earnings. They’ve made some statements they’d get real contracts before that time. When you look at the chart, it’s almost like all that negativity is baked in. This is churning at support with multiple volume spikes. IF news drops, this could really fly. They’ve gathered some shorts along the way. So, I’ve cut my position to a 25% hold. I will reluctantly get out if it loses daily 5.40 Support

News/Fundamentals

• Fermi Inc. Prices Upsized $375 Million Convertible Senior Notes — Dilution Offset Until $14.64: Management set the notes’ conversion price at $9.52 — a 30% premium to the $7.32 pricing-day close — then paid roughly $30M for capped calls pushing the no-dilution ceiling to $14.64 (a 100% premium), effectively betting shares clear $9.50 with a real shot at doubling from the deal price.

• Fermi America’s Project Matador Highlighted at NRC Regulatory Information Conference 2026: Project Matador remains the only NRC-accepted Combined Operating License filing in over 15 years, keeping the multi-GW nuclear buildout on track as the long-term fundamental anchor underneath the base.

• Fermi (FRMI) Sees a 14.1% Decline in Stock Price: The post-offering selloff reflects near-term dilution and cash-burn worries, but the drop into the mid-$5s is exactly where volume has concentrated, more consistent with supply being absorbed than a real breakdown.

Institutional activity. More whales 🐳 are coming in.

Trigger: DCA as long as $5.50 support holds
🛑 Stop: Soft stop, daily close < $5.40
🎯 Targets: $7.39 → $8.77 → $10.14 → $11.68 → $14.25
🔁 My personal plan: Commons

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Disclaimer: None of my charts are a prediction. I follow a Binary Process. Losses will occur. Develop your own plan. I am not an Investment Advisory. These are just my personal lines on a chart. What you do with them is up to you. Full disclaimer