The Skinny: Leo Carlsson

Leo Carlsson’s league-topping $18M AAV demands elite performance—and his five-year term demands it sooner rather than later. He’s on the clock.

Is he up to the task?

With his all-around instincts, puck skills and improved skating, at least we know the floor is high. The worst version of the 21-year-old is realistically still a top-six staple. If he hits his ceiling, we’ll be talking about a 95-point, all-situations 1C (i.e. the sort of stud who might deserve that money in a rising-cap world).

Reaching that level hinges on a phase of the game that’s both an obvious strength and a detriment to his offense at the moment: transition. Two late-season tilts vs. the Oilers illustrated the duality in question:

Carlsson has clearly put in work to upgrade his wheels since his draft year (2nd overall in 2023). His extra ounce of velocity creates separation and backs defenders off the blue line, whereas his use of linear crossovers and ambidexterity make him unpredictable at the point of attack. Joel Quenneville’s staff leaned on that potent combination last season, asking him to conjure zone entry after zone entry following low-swing pickups.

The sequence below showcases his importance to Anaheim’s NZ play as well as his feel for orchestration at speed:

Down two goals early in the third period, the Ducks hand him the puck near the DZ goal line in hopes that he can create danger on his own vs. a conservative 1-2-2. The fastest player in the league on his tail? No problem. He dips his inside arm on the path to middle ice, holds the puck ahead of his 6’3”, 208-pound frame and rumbles past the first wave of pressure.

Claiming that central berth isn’t just about his own space, however. He charts a course that pulls Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM 93) and Edmonton’s top pairing toward the left side of the rink, thereby freeing Cutter Gauthier (ANA 61) on the opposite flank. Bait Zach Hyman’s (EDM 18) extension —> underhandle through sticks to maintain possession —> kick the puck out to your best scorer after drawing the entire defense’s eyes.

Gauthier sells shot to burn a coasting Connor McDavid (EDM 97), and the Ducks come inches away from a glorious opportunity.

When Anaheim’s cornerstone is supplied the head of steam and centrality he requires to tie defenders up in knots, the game seems easy. Opponents aren’t always so generous. They’ll freeze him out or funnel him to the fringes, where he’s visibly less comfortable:

One of the core concepts underpinning good transition offense is the ability to get off the wall and into the guts of the ice. Unfortunately, it’s an area Carlsson doesn’t yet excel in.

Constrained by his location (little east-west maneuverability) and lack of A+ explosiveness, he often struggles to shed F1 along the boards and thus fails to sense the secondary defender shooting in to intervene. He must learn to navigate these limitations, working early give-and-gos to guide himself onto central runways or detecting the window to slip pucks past the double-team out wide.

As it stands, his well of answers runs dry when the questions become trickier. He attempts to bulldoze his way through hurdles without the right tools for the job.

I was hesitant to cover his early-season breakout in 2025-26 because it…didn’t feel sustainable. He ended up registering 33 points in his final 45 contests. Fleshing out his small-space repertoire would allow him to not only capitalize on open ice but also manufacture some when the walls are closing in. Seeing as rush offense is vital to a team’s overall attack, this is the hole Carlsson must patch in order to avoid prolonged slumps and close the offensive gap on his three-zone competition (Nick Suzuki, Jack Eichel, etc.).

The flaws are less pronounced in the OZ. He’s a true dual threat who can think on his feet and connect the dots seamlessly:

In wheel-and-deal mode, he has the processor to capitalize on the slightest mistakes below the dots and the touch to feather pucks through tight coverage. The next step in his playmaking journey is the addition of puck protection. Alongside a finesse winger like Troy Terry, filling out his frame to fend off defenders 1-on-1 would enable the high-flying Ducks to slow the game down at times and manufacture chances through cycle-oriented attrition.

If there’s one facet Carlsson already flourishes in, it’s his off-puck play:

The most impressive part of his rookie campaign a couple of years ago was his spacing. His augmented speed has turned him into a prolific NZ puck-carrier rather than a medium-range pass recipient, but he's only become a sneakier target in the OZ. He displays a nose for quiet areas and the patience to let plays breathe and blossom. Once defenders latch on to the nearest opponent, he slides between checks or rolls into a catch off low-high action.

He’s particularly good at hovering under the radar until he and a teammate can outnumber a defender on home plate.

Although Carlsson’s balanced skill set doesn’t scream “shoot-first forward,” he ranked in the 96th percentile in medium-danger shots and 86th percentile in HD shots. His positioning gets better every season. Should that trend continue, it’ll propel him to the 35-goal plateau soon enough (29 last season):

Finally, there’s his defense.

No, he’s not the second coming of Aleksander Barkov. The puck protection and stick work aren’t quite on that tier. His two-way game is superior to that of his U-22 peers nonetheless. The Ducks ice a committed two-way 1C:

He tracks back with urgency, while his anticipation and hand-eye grant him the edge in 1-on-1 duels. What stands out most is his support below the goal line. The timing that makes him such a keen offensive player informs his decision-making on low double-teams, as he’ll sniff out loose pucks (i.e. instances when he can afford to break off his coverage) and yank them out of the pile to complete the stop.

With many young centers, coaches must weigh chance creation vs. structural integrity. That isn’t even a conversation for the Ducks because Carlsson is a natural pivot. He supports his teammates across all three zones and actually cares about controlling the inside lane. He doesn’t cheat the game.

Here’s an example of his low support snowballing into smart transition play:

Notice his razor-sharp recognition:

• Expects the puck to pop free after John Carlson’s (ANA 74) hit in the corner and skates over to secure possession.

• Clocks Josh Samanski’s (EDM 81) outside leverage on his scan and knows Kasperi Kapanen (EDM 42) is still engaged with the Ducks’ RD on the wall. That means there’s a gap between F1 and F2.

• Swivels off to his backhand —> splits the forecheckers —> underhandles through pressure —> dishes out wide once F3 shuffles over.

Such fluid sequences, in concert with his open-ice exploits, are the reason he posted the team’s highest shot attempt share despite logging the forward corps’ toughest minutes:

Even if he bumps up against his absolute ceiling, there probably aren’t many 120-point campaigns on the horizon. Winning the territorial battle and further tightening his defense to claim a larger slice of the goal pie (say, 55+ GF%) is his avenue to competing with the big dogs at his position.

Oh, and earning that whopping paycheck.