Semiannual portfolio review

H1 2026 is the toughest first half I have had since I started investing seriously.

The portfolio returned −13.1% on a time-weighted basis in SGD terms. The S&P 500 returned +8.1% over the same period. That is a gap of over 21 percentage points. There is no way to dress that up.

I will not try to.

Underperforming the market is the default outcome for most investors, professional and retail alike. Study after study shows that the majority of active fund managers fail to beat the index over any meaningful time horizon. That is not a talking point. It is the reality of a market where every trade has a counterparty who also thinks they are right.

The ones who consistently outperform are not just smart. They have to be right when the consensus is wrong, hold conviction when prices move against them, and avoid the kind of mistakes that permanently impair capital. That is an extraordinarily difficult combination to sustain.

This half, I did not get it right.

It helps to be honest about the kind of market this was. Not as an excuse, but for context. This was a market obsessed with one theme: AI. Anything connected to it was bid up to extraordinary valuations.

Korea is the clearest example. Driven by the memory supercycle, the KOSPI is up more than 100% over the past year, with Samsung and SK Hynix both crossing trillion-dollar valuations. Taiwan’s TAIEX pushed to record highs on the same AI chip demand.

My portfolio sat almost entirely on the wrong side of that trade. I own quality businesses at reasonable valuations, value names and contrarian bets that have lagged the frenzy. In a year that rewarded momentum and punished patience, that hurt.

Expensive AI stocks do not make me right and the market wrong. But it explains the gap. When the index is carried by a handful of names at extreme multiples, a diversified value portfolio always looks slow by comparison.

Disclosure: This is my personal portfolio and reflects my own risk tolerance, time horizon, and circumstances, none of which may match yours. I share it so you can see how I am positioned and where my money actually sits, not as a recommendation to follow. Nothing here is financial advice. Always do your own research.