2025-12: Dow Jones Industrial Average index and 5-year US Treasury rate driving US equity

Dow Jones Industrial Average index and the 5-year US Treasury yield rate are computed to be driving the three US stock indices.

The forecast target date is the day in six months.

If one searches for “QQQ.US;SPY.US;DIA.US” (type the string including the semicolons but excluding the quotation marks), the top two computed causal predictors are

Note the Federal Funds Rate often in news is only an overnight rate per se, but it may have some impact over longer-term interest rate.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/business/federal-reserve-minutes-december.html

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-threatens-sue-feds-powell-will-announce-replacement-next-month-2025-12-29/

If one just searches for DIA.US, the top two computed causal predictors are Raytheon RTX in the defence sector, and DIA.US itself. The third one is Pepsi PEP as a symbol of consumer inflation.