Why Tony Greer's Still Betting Against Semis

TG returned to Talking Markets yesterday to talk yesterday’s big breakout day, why the market is starting to shrug off Iran headlines, and why he’s short semis and Space X.

💡Quick PSA: After a stellar first year, TG Macro Conference returns to Nashville on February 18-19, 2027, with a fantastic line-up. Details and tickets this way.

Yesterday [Monday] was “a big breakout day” for markets, which Tony in part puts down to the removal of some uncertainties .

Yes, the Iran war is continuing but the headlines are starting to have decreasing marginal impact on the markets. Add to that, “everybody knows the pace now,” Tony said. “War [happens] over the weekend - Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Sunday night, we have peace talks. Monday morning, ‘Iran is looking to make a deal.’ On Friday [Trump’s] mad at them again.”

Meanwhile, on Sunday Japan and the US confirmed that they jointly intervened late last week to backstop the yen, which had been in freefall:

And former currency trader/current US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would intervene again if deemed necessary. “The dollar index (DXY) backs off with that, so we get a little bit of natural resources tailwind,” Tony said.

Another uncertainty removed for now: “We removed the Fed question mark,” Tony said. “Everybody’s all hopped up about inflation and staring at the Federal Reserve, and Kevin Warsh comes in and says ‘play the ball, play the inflation data, don’t play me.’ Basically, Warsh is “setting expectations and letting the market do the work for him,” Tony said.

💡So, with some of those uncertainties removed, “the market today says, okay, green light go,” Tony said. “We’ve got two sigma rallies in internet stocks, two sigma rallies in airlines and software… The market is sending signals today, and I’m listening. This was a bullish day for the stock market.”

Tony’s got a short semis position on his view matrix right now that is in the money. “I’m trying to write it down and capture a profit in it before that gets away from me,” he said.

But he thinks that the trade could still go lower, “until SpaceX finds a bottom.” “Today the market was up, and semis weren’t up that much,” he said. “So there was a little bit of relative weakness.”

Tony shorted SpaceX “because the market can’t have it both ways,” he said. “You can’t have the expansion of a semiconductor bubble into the stratosphere and then also land a mispriced $2 trillion [stock] on the tape, while Google is raising $80 billion. The market just can’t absorb all of that in one bite.”

❗”I was able to knock on wood, crush it from 190 to 160 or so and stayed short from there. So I don’t want to talk my book too much, but I did recommend it,” he said. “As a trader, [if] the markets give you something that pans out the way you thought, you better make money. That’s the deal. That’s what we’re doing here.”

TG gives short shrift to anyone who’s carping about gold sitting around $4,000. “We were all praying gold would go somewhere when it was sitting there at $1,500 and then it went to $5,500,” he said. “And now it’s backed off to $4,000 and everybody’s b!tching.”

Tony isn’t going to be shaken out of the gold trade. “We know what’s coming [over time]” he said. “Lower rates, more money printing, higher M2, yield curve control, the whole kit and caboodle. If we have another 100-day episode where it wiggle waggles and squiggles around $4,000, who cares?”

“We’re in like the sixth regime of 2026 already,” Tony said. “My head is spinning.”

At the start of the year, it looked like another year for the precious metals trade. But in January and February, oil services stocks just took off… and then in April semis took off… then we had oil explode.

“You’re having these rolling macro breakouts,” Tony said. “The problem is, nobody’s sitting flat - we’re all trying to trade the trades that are in motion, and then all of a sudden you see something break out and you’re like, ‘should I be liquidating everything I have and trading this internet stock breakout?’ It’s really difficult.”

Another surprising feature of 2026 so far: “They shot all the Trump trades right in the back,” Tony said. “Bitcoin, Coinbase, Uranium, Rare Earths, throw solar in there… Those were all trades that really took off with the admin when they were layout their plans, and then backed off just as fast as Trump’s approval rating approaches zero.”

“It’s a slow bleed,” Tony said. “The idea of hodling is completely absurd now that MicroStrategy is a net seller of Bitcoin. I just don’t like what’s going on around it.”

Tony thinks the banking sector is happy with Kevin Warsh, and that XLF looks great. “I think the sector realizes that there are going to be some higher interest rates, or at least there’s this visibility that we’re not going to 2% and sitting there.” Tony wants to be long but he’s waiting for an entry point: “I’ve got to wait for [the chart] to migrate back to me.”

“I don’t look at seasonal weakness when you’ve got the Trump administration,
Tony said. “He’s going to overrun any kind of seasonality in anything.”

Thank you Michael Hughes, Daliah Savino, Daniel Faber, Bob Fitzwilson, Ryan, and everyone else who tuned in live…! We’ll be back Talking Markets on Wednesday with Dale.

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Important: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.