TradeGateHub Coach Dale Pinkert returned to Talking Markets yesterday and as ever, brought his a-game…
🏠 Before we dig in, a quick programming note: Talking Markets will be taking a summer break for the next few weeks, and will return in September. But… we do have some epic interviews lined up for you in August, including with the amazing The Blind Squirrel and equally amazing Erik. Stay tuned…
Thank you so much for your support and we'll see you back here soon.
“Everyone thinks it’s a breakout, and it could be,” Dale said. “But I still have some skepticism.”
Dale thinks there could be a dollar rally in store to maybe $103, which could push gold back down.
He’s also skeptical about silver rallying, saying he thinks the trade right now might be “over embraced.”
“I’m looking to buy it down here right around the 78.6 [Fib] level, around $72.50,” Dale said. “Because if this is a 5-wave structure [in the chart], that is not a bearish wave - that’s the beginning of something new. So I’m thinking we put in a higher low at $72, and that opens the door for us to take out the highs over $120.”
❗”This is really going to be the whole game for the market,” Dale said. “Because if [taking out the highs] happens, we’ll have risk off. And everything will suffer except maybe oil shares…. Everyone should hope that crude takes out that low at 67. But if we put in a higher low, start to think about protecting your principal and more of the return of equity rather than the return on equity.”
Dale’s skeptical of S&P rally yesterday as there’s daily divergence, “so I wouldn’t be long the market right here,” he said. “I think we’re going to put in a high and pull back [to 6,900] this time… There could be a 10% correction coming with if we get higher yields and another rally in the dollar.”
Nasdaq “looks like a failing rally” to Dale. He shorted it because it didn’t make a new high….
And he’s covered his short in Micron, but would love to put it back on if it gets back over $1,000, as, he said, “I still think it’s going to $400.”
Dale’s still looking for 10-year yields to get above 5%. “Friday could be an important day,” he said. “If the [payroll] numbers are strong, that could put Warsh in a box. He doesn’t want to raise rates, [but] the market’s already starting to think he’ll have to because of the bond reaction - the bond market wanted hikes and that’s why it sold off [after the FOMC meeting]. That’s why the dollar sold off, why the market blew off, why gold and silver are rallying big. So if we get a strong jobs number, the market might start to think about the Fed [being] in play in September.“
❗As Talking Markets is off for a few weeks, Dale wanted to flag the USDA crop report coming out on August 12. If you’re in the grains trade, Dale said the “safe play is to be out” ahead of that report. “Why take the risk? Predicting the report is gambling,” he said. “Reacting to the report is trading.” That’s Coach, always with the wise words…
See y’all soon.
Thank you Bob Fitzwilson, Hawksmoor Capital, Natalia Smelly, el viejo, George, and everyone else for tuning in live!
Important: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Consult with a qualified financial advisor to assess your risk tolerance, investment goals, and overall financial plan.
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