SUNDAY DEBRIEF: AMERICA IS RUNNING OUT OF MISSILES (AUG 2-9)

Happy Sunday! There was a lot of news this week, so let’s go.

Iran and Oman have a framework for reopening the strait of Hormuz. Under the proposed terms, American and Israeli ships would not be allowed through. At the same time, we learned just how much of the U.S. missile inventory has been burned through since the war began. Estimates put THAAD use at nearly 80 percent of the prewar stockpile and Patriot use at more than 60 percent. The Pentagon is now asking defense contractors to dramatically increase production, but replacing what has already been used could take years.

That would have been enough for one week.

Instead, the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general after 4 a.m. Saturday, one day after audio surfaced of him telling anti-abortion activists that the administration would work to make Dobbs permanent in every state. DOJ is also reviewing whether the Comstock Act of 1873 can be used against abortion medication sent through the mail.

And two days before Blanche was confirmed, New Mexico sued him and the Justice Department over records connected to Jeffrey Epstein’s Zorro Ranch. The complaint references a federal prosecution memo describing an alleged sexual assault at the ranch by someone other than Ghislaine Maxwell.

Then there was Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary after more than $65 million was spent opposing him. If he wins in November, he would become the first Muslim U.S. senator.

The Senate also passed Lindsey Graham’s Russia sanctions bill 86 to 11, 25 states sued the administration over tariffs for the third time, a Republican congressman dropped his reelection bid after an Ethics Committee report, and Trump publicly attacked his own U.S. attorney after she dropped a case the evidence did not support.

There are 86 days until the midterms. That will be my focus coming up. In the meantime, here is what happened this week.

Iran and Oman finalized the framework for a shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz this week, with vessels entering through the northern channel near the Iranian coast and exiting through the southern channel near Oman.

The terms would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting and impose fines of up to 20 percent of cargo value on violators. Commercial vessels from other countries would pay fees of up to 7 percent.

Iran has said the agreement alone is not enough to fully reopen the waterway and is demanding broader concessions from Washington, including sanctions relief. The Trump administration rejected the framework and maintains that the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway and that Iran does not control who can use it.

Oil still fell from roughly $90 to $83 a barrel on optimism that an agreement could eventually reopen the strait.

But the part that matters most may be happening thousands of miles away from the negotiating table.

The U.S. has used nearly 80 percent of its THAAD missile interceptors and more than 60 percent of its Patriot interceptors since the war began, according to the assessment cited in this week’s reporting. Prewar stockpiles stood at roughly 452 THAAD and 2,200 Patriot interceptors. The estimate now is that fewer than 278 THAAD and roughly 827 Patriots remain.

The Pentagon has reached agreements with Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman to increase production, but current schedules have the military receiving roughly 20 new Patriots per month. Rebuilding the stockpile to prewar levels could take two to three years.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disputed the 80 percent figure on social media but did not provide an alternative number.

My read: Iran knows exactly what the United States is burning through to sustain this war, and it knows those weapons cannot simply be replaced next month.

That changes the negotiating position.

The administration can reject Iran’s terms publicly, but Iran controls one side of the chokepoint and knows the U.S. is consuming interceptors much faster than it can manufacture replacements. The Pentagon giving contractors 21 days to come back with plans to accelerate production does not solve that problem. Production takes time.

So I think the question has changed. It is no longer just whether the U.S. can continue the war militarily. It is how long it can continue at the current rate without creating a much bigger vulnerability somewhere else.

And if a deal is eventually reached that reopens the Strait of Hormuz while American ships remain barred from using it, we are going to have to have a very different conversation about what this war accomplished.

The Senate confirmed Todd Blanche as attorney general shortly after 4 a.m. Saturday by a vote of 50 to 49.

Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski voted against him with Democrats. Bill Cassidy provided the decisive 50th vote after Blanche signed a written commitment concerning the $1.776 billion anti-weaponization fund.

John Cornyn and Ted Tillis had previously said they wanted Blanche to meet with Epstein survivors and put his commitments in writing. They ultimately voted for him.

But something else happened before the vote.

Audio surfaced from a call between Blanche and anti-abortion activists organized through the White House Faith Office. Blanche said the administration would work to “make Dobbs permanent in every single state.”

At the same time, DOJ has directed the Office of Legal Counsel to review the Biden administration’s interpretation of the Comstock Act.

That is the part I would pay attention to.

The law dates to 1873 and prohibits mailing certain materials used for abortion. The current interpretation permits abortion medication to be mailed. A different interpretation could give DOJ a route to pursue abortion medication nationally without Congress passing a new abortion law.

My read: Everyone has spent years debating whether Republicans have enough votes to pass a national abortion ban. They may not need to. If DOJ changes its interpretation of Comstock, this becomes an enforcement question rather than a congressional one. There is no Senate vote to watch and no filibuster to overcome. The administration could attempt to accomplish through an internal legal interpretation something it probably could not get through Congress.

That is why the timing bothers me.

The audio surfaced Thursday. Blanche was confirmed after 4 a.m. Saturday. Senators knew what he had said before they voted. I would watch DOJ very closely now, because the next important development in the abortion fight may not happen on the floor of Congress.

This week’s debrief includes New Mexico and the Epstein Investigation, the $65M Senate race in Michigan that was lost, the Russia sanctions bill that passed the Senate with 86 votes, the third lawsuit against Trump’s tariffs, the Republican House seat that may suddenly be competitive, why 4,600 National Guard troops are staying in Washington through 2029, Tuesday’s South Carolina election, and the numbers quietly changing the midterm picture.