“Five On It” is Cancelled, Per Jayden Daniels

We are officially less than one month from real football, which means fantasy drafts have moved from “hypothetical” to “hyperventilating.” The preseason is doing its annual thing - undrafted quarterbacks are becoming folk heroes, coaches are delivering monologues, and we’re all refreshing ADP lists + running mocks to make sure we don’t panic draft a tight end in round six. Practice makes perfect, as they say.

If you’re drafting soon - and statistically, you very likely are - we’ve got good news for you: the 2026 Draft Guide is live, and there’s still time to lock in Season Pass at $49 for the year. Annual subs get the Draft Guide (a $29 value by itself) included. And as always, the Discord is still 100% free to join. Nothing’s free these days! In case you haven’t joined yet, this week we:

• Made fun of Jayden Daniels, his mom, and the whole LSU jersey number saga

• Talked about Cam’s new draft assistant tool - it’s pretty neat, and everyone with Season Pass gets access

• Chatted through a few keeper scenarios as our community members finalize those picks, trades as we put the finishing touches on our Wk1 dynasty rosters, and so on

• Hosted a mock draft, like we do every Monday - more on that below (spoiler alert: Chris either did very poorly or very well depending on how much credit/adjustment you give for ZeroRB)

Last thing - if you’re here from Reddit/X/somewhere else, make sure you subscribe to get this newsletter via email every week!

Without further ado, here’s the good stuff 👇

Keenan Allen is fewer than 50 receptions away from having the third most in NFL history among wide receivers.

Chris Olave:
• Averaged 18.8 PPG in Shough starts
• 151 targets/100 catches
• 1 of only 4 WRs with a 28% target share & 40% air yards share

Jordan Addison has never finished worse than the WR45. He’s going as the WR46 right now.

WR leaders by average separation score from the slot (last 2 years):
1. Romeo Doubs – 0.216
2. Zay Flowers – 0.152
3. George Pickens – 0.143
4. Jerry Jeudy – 0.135
5. Malik Nabers – 0.124

Yards after the catch per reception, 2025 (min. 40 receptions):
1. Rashee Rice – 7.98
2. Luther Burden – 7.23
3. Khalil Shakir – 7.22
4. DK Metcalf – 7.20
5. Sam LaPorta – 6.92

Most receiving yards on 3rd and 4th down in 2025:
1. Courtland Sutton – 507
2. George Pickens – 462
3. DeVonta Smith – 436
4. Ja’Marr Chase – 423
5. Puka Nacua – 399
6. Wan’Dale Robinson – 395

Jameson Williams‘ 2025 Reception Perception profile, coming off his second-straight 1,000-yard season:
• 65.9% success rate vs. man coverage
• 79.8% success rate vs. zone

Among 53 TEs with 150+ routes last year, Dalton Kincaid ranked:
• 1st in FantasyPtsData separation score
• 1st in win rate

Tight end target share per route run rates:
• Dalton Kincaid: 23.9%
• Harold Fannin: 23.6%
• Trey McBride: 23.5%
• Colby Parkinson: 23.3%
• George Kittle: 22.6%

Dallas Goedert has finished as a PPG TE1 in SEVEN straight seasons.

The TE1 in fantasy in each of the past five seasons has simply led the position in routes run.

Every tight end to finish top 5 in PPR has had either 90+ targets or 10+ touchdowns since Randy McMichael in 2003.

Percentage of elite top-six fantasy performers (PPR points per game) to repeat the following season since 2016:
• QB: 37%
• RB: 43%
• WR: 46%
• TE: 50%

Derrick Henry‘s rank in rushing yards over the last four seasons:
• 2025: 2nd
• 2024: 2nd
• 2023: 2nd
• 2022: 2nd

Last year De’Von Achane put up 20 PPG on a Miami offense that finished:
• 25th in points
• 26th in yards
• 28th in 1st downs

Goal-line carries in 2025:
• Chris Rodriguez – 9 carries, 4 TDs, 56% success rate, 0.40 EPA per carry
• Bhayshul Tuten – 4 carries, 3 TDs, 75% success rate, 0.42 EPA per carry

Running backs to average over 1.4 yards per route run and a 22%+ target share per route run in 2025:
• Bijan Robinson
• Christian McCaffrey
• Jahmyr Gibbs
• Dylan Sampson
• Kenny Gainwell

Christian McCaffrey‘s fantasy PPR points last season ONLY from receiving: 236.4

Expected touchdown leaders among RBs in 2025 (rushing + receiving, based on number and location of touches):
1. Christian McCaffrey – 22.5
2. Jonathan Taylor – 18.6
3. Kyren Williams – 14.1
4. Zach Charbonnet – 13.6
5. Derrick Henry – 13.3

Highest touchdown rate on carries inside the 5-yard line (min. 10 attempts in 2025):
1. Kareem Hunt – 53.3%
T2. Javonte Williams, Zach Charbonnet, Tyler Allgeier – 50.0%
5. Quinshon Judkins – 45.5%
6. Christian McCaffrey – 45.0%

Most scrimmage yards in 2025 (* = signed an extension during the RB payday spree):
1. Bijan Robinson – 2,298*
2. Christian McCaffrey – 2,126
3. Jonathan Taylor – 1,963*
4. James Cook – 1,912
5. Jahmyr Gibbs – 1,839*

Do yourself a favor and draft a Packers running back:
• Josh Jacobs – 15+ PPG in 5 of the last 6 seasons, routinely falling to Round 4 or later
• MarShawn Lloyd – a top-100 pick built like a brick house (5’9”/220, 4.46 forty, 25 bench reps) with a career .318 missed tackles forced per attempt

The Bears and Saints have the full shootout starter kit:
• Talented offenses
• Strong offensive minds at head coach
• Bad defenses
• A lot of dome games (Saints)
The Bears checked in 31st in Brandon Thorn’s pass-rush rankings.

Biggest ADP changes from 2025 to 2026:
• Bo Nix: 70→113
• Chuba Hubbard: 46→83
• Jayden Daniels: 29→60
• Jalen Hurts: 34→63
• Joe Burrow: 32→57

Malik Willis has averaged 6.8 rush attempts per start in his career. Over 17 games, that would be 116 rush attempts. Over the last 5 seasons, there have been 19 qualifying QB seasons with 100+ rush attempts. Every single one of them finished as top-12 QBs in fantasy PPG.

Best QBs in the playoffs since 2020, by EPA per dropback (min. 75 dropbacks):
1. Jordan Love – 0.25
2. Matthew Stafford – 0.21
3. Patrick Mahomes – 0.20
4. Baker Mayfield – 0.19
5. Jayden Daniels – 0.16
[...]
24. Justin Herbert – -0.21

Percentage of pressures a QB turns into sacks, 2025 (min. 150 attempts – lower is better):
1. Brock Purdy – 10.3%
2. Bo Nix – 10.9%
3. Matthew Stafford – 11.7%
4. Jordan Love – 12%
[...]
34. J.J. McCarthy – 26%
41. Kyler Murray – 29.1%

Most All-Pro votes among QBs since 2003:
1. Peyton Manning – 296
2. Tom Brady – 201
3. Aaron Rodgers – 181
4. Lamar Jackson – 122
5. Patrick Mahomes – 96
[...]
10. Josh Allen – 22

Highest point differential in the 4th quarter and overtime in 2025:
1. Texans – +78
2. Broncos – +65
3. Bills – +50
4. Saints – +42
T5. Bears, Jets – +30

...and the lowest 4th quarter/OT point differentials in 2025:
T28. Eagles, Browns – -39
30. Steelers – -42
31. Giants – -46
32. Cardinals – -58

Eagles‘ preseason offensive drives:
• 3 plays, 3 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 4 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 5 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 7 yards, punt
• 8 plays, 31 yards, punt
• 2 plays, 6 yards, end of half
• 3 plays, -6 yards, punt
• 3 plays, 1 yard, punt

A career-high 22% of Patrick Mahomes‘ fantasy production last year came via rushing. (That mark wasn’t higher than 12.9% in any of his first 7 seasons.) Check out Jared’s full article here.

In the Mahomes era, KC has logged THE LOWEST rush rate in goal-to-go situations (41.2%). Over the last 3 years of offensive regression, they’re 24th in RB rushing TDs. Kenneth Walker has never had a season of double-digit rushing TDs.

Percentage of dropbacks facing quick pressure (within 2.5 seconds of the snap) in 2025:
1. Justin Herbert – 23.1%
2. Jalen Hurts – 22.1%
3. Bryce Young – 21.6%
4. Jordan Love – 21.5%
5. Geno Smith – 20.5%

Worst total yards differentials in 2025:
30. Raiders – -1,235
31. Titans – -1,454
32. Jets – -1,564

The Tennessee Titans start the season with the 1st easiest early running back schedule then end the season with the 30th late.

Every RB with 21+ carries in an NFL preseason game since 2011:
• William Powell (2011)
• Nate Eachus (2012)
• Lorenzo Taliaferro (2014)
• Kenny Hilliard (2016)
• Devine Redding (2017)
• Nick Brossette (2019)
• A.J. Rose Jr. (2021)
• Kaytron Allen (2026)

Mock Draft Monday lives! We jumped into another 12-team PPR board this week (pick-by-pick on Sleeper), and yes, we finally had 12 people on! Of course, there was still some auto drafting, as the pick clock was 30s long - but 12 live people in a room for a mock. Love our community.

Cam drew the 8-hole - Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first, Omarion Hampton coming back in the second, then a Tee Higgins-D’Andre Swift-TreVeyon Henderson run through the middle. Chris, meanwhile, decided to experiment with ZeroRB and felt very uncomfortable leaving the draft - though how much of that could’ve been cleaned up on waivers/the trade block, we’ll never know (because this draft was fake and nobody cares about it anymore).

Another week with Jonnas either near or at the top of the leaderboard… leaguemates be warned:

1. Jonnas – 115.1/week
2. PeytonsGreatOnes – 112.6
3. Epic_Splooge – 112.3
[...]
7. Cam – 111.3
[...]
10. Chris – 109.4
[...]
12. D0n235 – 107.1

Only two more #MondayMocks before it’s time to lock in for the Labor Day weekend draft-a-thon. If you’re not already rocking with us, we implore you to come join the Discord (it’s free in case you forgot) and be a part of the next one.

Among the dozens of tests and investigations we did this off season to build out our draft guide, one of our most important ones was determining the value of Average Draft Position. We took every same-position pair inside the top 120 picks over the last six seasons according to Fantasy Pros PPR ADP (9,357 head-to-head matchups) and asked one simple question: did the earlier drafted player score more points than the later guy? And even in the range of 12-20 picks, the earlier guy did better 61% of the time. That’s actually not a lot. If two players have ADPs within 12-20 picks of each other, you should only expect the earlier drafted player to score more points than the later one 61% of the time. However, Fantasy Football is not just a game of one single draft decision. It’s 15+ decisions made back-to-back-to-back. If you reach on your draft pick two picks in a row, your probability of drafting the better player both times is ~15%.

According to our research, there are a few players that we believe are worth that risk. Consider this your free sample:

• Our 2026 projections have TE Colston Loveland at 6.9 targets per game on a 21% total target share. Tight ends who command >20% of their team’s targets break out 59.1% of the time, vs. just 13.5% for everyone else.

• The median middle-round receiver breaks out with a 24.3% target share. WR Jaylen Waddle projects for a 26% target share in Denver.

• Our research shows that in the middle rounds of our drafts we want to target running backs in split backfields with high target shares, and Jaylen Warren is one of our favorites.

• Trevor Lawrence is one of our favorite QBs to draft this season. With a projected increase in rushing volume and an offense that made him a career-best scorer last season already discounted for regression, we are clicking his name frequently.

Check out the full guide to see the work behind every one of those numbers and our top 200 rankings for Half-PPR, PPR, Superflex, and Best-Ball!

A fan asked any Bills player to set the order and D.J. Moore made the call.

Unc (Travis Kelce) still got his bag.

In 2014, Topps did an insert set of Punt, Pass, and Kick champions. Check out 11 year old Tyler Warren.

Malik Nabers and Odell Beckham Jr. on the field together

“Like, I ain’t ever seen this sh*t in my life. ... The NFL D-line is so good. They get paid millions to go hit the f*** out of me.” - Cam Ward

Cyrus Allen climbed the ladder to get that one

Luther Burden vs. Tyrique Stevenson

A fan reportedly snuck into Ravens training camp and participated in the Edge rusher drills.

Undrafted Panther Haynes King pulled an Ochocinco.

Per Madden 27, the best quarterback in football is 38-year-old Matthew Stafford.

Four teams, four division titles – Stefon Diggs might just be good luck.

The Josh Allen only-club stat that Bills fans keep framed above the mantle.

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👋 That’s it for now.

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